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In reply to the discussion: Brian Sandoval, Republican governor of Nevada, is being vetted for Supreme Court vacancy [View all]Yo_Mama
(8,303 posts)For example, suppose he has unofficially heard that Ginsburg or Kennedy wants to retire?
In that case, if he sends them one they do confirm for this opening, then they are very badly positioned to stymie the next nominee. They've already broken their own strike!
Kennedy and Scalia were almost the same age - pushing 80. Ginsburg is 82.
If no appointment is made this year, then the next president will almost certainly have three appointments. If you KNEW the next president would be Clinton or Sanders, then maybe it would be best to let it ride (from a liberal POV).
But I doubt anyone knows that. Elections are a crapshoot, and this one is clearly quite different from the average.
Think about it as a grid of possibilities. Consider 50-50 odds for Dem/Rep president, and 50-50 odds for Senate controlled Dem or Rep:
The we get the following possibilities President/Senate:
Current Dem/Rep 1 or 2 openings. (Status Quo)
Future Dem/Dem: 2 or 3 openings.(Better for liberals)
Future Dem/Rep: 2 or 3 openings. (Same for liberals)
Future Rep/Dem: 2 or 3 openings. (Worse for Liberals)
Future Rep/Rep: 2 or 3 openings. (Disaster for Liberals)
As a poker hand, the president would be wise to try to get a moderate candidate through the process. Kennedy is a swing and Ginsburg is a liberal. If he gets a moderate through, if things go Dem then two liberal-leanings will be next appointed. If things are the same, the odds don't change. If a Republican president is chosen, then he's much better off getting a moderate candidate on now.
If he breaks the blockade and Ginsburg decides to resign now, then obviously it would tend to create a liberal-leaning court.
There is only a 1 in 4 chance of having a better shot at it next year. That may be hard to accept, but it is true. It is likely that the Republicans will lose seats in the Senate, but even if they take it, the Dems aren't going to have much of a majority. 50 or 51, at best. If Sanders gets the nomination that takes him out of the Senate along with Reid. I assume he will be succeeded by a Democrat, but power balances in the Senate will be close at best.