Is it possible some areas may flatten the curve too much at first then that area gets nailed later?

For example some states have already put in place all kinds of restrictions when there are just a trickle of cases in those states. What if this causes growth to be only a few dozen or hundred people in some large cities? Then in a couple of months they lift the restrictions and all hell breaks loose because that city won't have any herd immunity at all as other places have taken pretty solid hits but perhaps flattened the curve enough to prevent hospitals from overflowing? This is world wide so if 75% of the world takes a big hit and 25% hardly gets anything it only takes a few people to come into a community and have that city / region get nailed by a second wave then have to close schools etc again for months. Are there some guidelines for how to manage the curve to a pace a region can handle that is not too strong and not too weak? Keeping the clamps on a region until a vaccine comes out in a year and a half will destroy the area economy. It would a complete shambles by then. Areas need to be managed carefully. Hopefully I am wrong about this?

Vitamin D and immunity

Here is the Harvard study: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/02/study-confirms-vitamin-d-protects-against-cold-and-flu/

Estimating actual COVID 19 cases (novel corona virus infections) in an area based on deaths

Animation of how the H1N1 virus spread

Not sure this is going to act the same. For some reason they have suggested this may not slow during the warmer months

Can you be immune to something you haven't ever had before?

Or do people with strong immune systems get the infection and their bodies react quickly and knock it out before symptoms occur?

I haven't ever understood why there is always a certain number of a population who seems to be immune to something new. For example the Native Americans had some who just never got smallpox. They seemed to be immune to it even though it was new to Native Americans.

Some countries are not closing schools because kids don't seem to be spreading this

and closing schools puts a huge burden on poor families and the parents. A huge number of nurses have kids and now have to stay home with them.



Why Australia is not shutting schools to help control the spread of coronavirus

Medical officers have not recommended mass closures amid dissenting views on whether – and when – it will be necessary

Snip:
There is a particular risk associated with the fact that children may require care from vulnerable grandparents or may continue to associate (and transmit infection) outside of school settings.

Snip: What do independent experts say?
Prof Jonathan Carapetis, a paediatrician and a leading expert on infectious diseases, told Guardian Australia the medical community’s view is “not that straightforward” but everyone agrees a “balanced discussion” rather than knee-jerk reaction is required.

The executive director of Telethon Kids Institute said the argument for school closures is to prevent transmission from child to child and back to their family.

“But the evidence that closing schools will have a significant impact on transmission of the pandemic is not that strong,” he said.

“Children don’t seem to get severely unwell, they either get a mild version or show no signs of illness, so the early data is that they are not significantly involved in transmission.”

School closure “is not the panacea some may think”, Carapetis said, citing the fact it could take 10-20% of people out of the workforce and put parents and grandparents at risk of a more severe health outcome.

More: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/why-australia-is-not-shutting-schools-to-help-control-the-spread-of-coronavirus

Coronavirus: Why is the UK not shutting schools like other countries?

Snip: Many countries are taking tough measures to crack down on the spread of coronavirus, including school closures, an end to mass gatherings and severe travel restrictions. But the UK has adopted relatively modest control measures.

The differences can be partly explained by the fact some of these countries are further into their epidemics. But it's clear the UK has adopted a more nuanced approach.

Computer simulations indicate the UK is in the early stages of its epidemic which is expected to rise sharply in four weeks and peak in 10 and 14 weeks' time.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK government's chief scientific adviser, and chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty have made the judgement call that it is too soon to impose severe restrictions at this stage.

Such restrictions might last several months and risk "self-isolation fatigue", with people leaving their homes just as the epidemic was at its height. The elderly are particularly at risk of developing severe symptoms. But many of them are already isolated. Cutting them off from their communities at this stage, when the risks are still relatively low, would create unnecessary difficulties for them.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51874084

This expert was saying something similar and I have seen others say the same thing around the 9:30 mark:

Governor SHREDS Trump: "Get Your S#$! Together"

I find it interesting that Germany has only 2 serious / critical cases out of over 7,000 infected

They have had 17 deaths but these mortality / critical numbers are extremely low. Germany is not a young country: https://www.statista.com/statistics/454349/population-by-age-group-germany/

The US number of critical cases is very low too at just 12 out of just under 5,000 though there have been 93 deaths. I believe a lot of the deaths were in Washington State when it swept through a nursing home.

Italy's numbers of those in critical condition and dying is very high but I know their population has a very high number of elderly. Almost 4,000 deaths / in critical condition out of 27,000 cases. Yikes! That is 15% critical / death combined with a death rate of around 7%

So Germany's serious / death rate is .28%. US is 2% in serious condition of having died (combined) Italy 15%

If the German / US numbers hold up (I know a lot of the US cases may not have had time to become critical) That would put the death rate close to a regular flu type death rate. Unless the numbers just are not accurate.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Editing to include this article:

How come fewer people are dying from COVID-19 in Germany than elsewhere?
At a press conference last Wednesday, Prof. Dr. Lothar H. Wieler, President of the Robert Koch Institute in Berlin said, "From the beginning, we have very systematically called upon our doctors to test people."

He added that the German system can provide "testing to a high degree so that we can easily look into the beginnings of the epidemic."

Wieler also explained that this is just the beginning for Germany. "If you imagine an epidemic like a curve [...] then there are countries that are simply further" into the progression of this epidemic.

He expects the case numbers and the numbers of deaths to rise, just like they have in other affected countries.

The professor noted that Germany is exchanging information with other countries to learn about the development of the disease and is collaborating on concepts to contain the pandemic.

"As long as this epidemic continues to affect our country, it will take months, certainly, perhaps years.


More: https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-why-does-germany-have-so-few-covid-19-deaths

Video emerges showing Trump talking about cutting pandemic team in 2018, despite saying...

Video emerges showing Trump talking about cutting pandemic team in 2018, despite saying last week 'I didn't know about it'

A video has emerged of Donald Trump talking about cutting the US pandemic response team in 2018 – days after claiming that he knew nothing about the disbanded White House unit.

Mr Trump said of the pandemic team that “some of the people we’ve cut they haven’t been used for many, many years and if we ever need them we can get them very quickly and rather then spending the money”.

“I’m a business person, I don’t like having thousands of people around when you don’t need them,” he added.


The US president has come under fire in recent days for his decision to disband the National Security Council directorate at the White House responsible for planning the US’s preparedness for future pandemics.

The unit had been established by the previous White House administration in 2014 after the outbreak of Ebola.

More: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-video-trump-pandemic-team-cut-2018-a9405191.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1QXODyXf5Qn9RLAlqwx6dAWYS-gWlELBa7yGck0VNHu3vAKurmv_uw_Wg#Echobox=1584390585

The wet markets in Asia etc. must be shut down at all costs

Watching the Australia 60 Minutes video: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1017571911 The power brokers need to do whatever it takes to end this and I imagine it will be on everyone's mind soon as the world economy crashes and millions die. It's inhumane to the animals and it has the power to kill billions and possibly bring down the human race. Each of those markets should be treated like 500,000 nuclear bombs. Anything similar needs to be stopped as well. It sounds like most are run illegally. If it takes a small army to go in and take the people running those out it needs to be done. Surround them and put them in jail.