The daily 538 cratering of Sanders continues unabated, on the verge of going sub 20% for 1991

[Celerity]

He is on the verge of going sub 40% in terms of total pledged delegates as well, which is massive

as zero chance, even with a plurality (I do NOT think he will even have a plurality) he will get the nomination with 36%, 38% or less of the pledged delegates,

the maths (even if he rolls in with 45% ie, 1791) simply do not add up

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/







Here is a deep dive I did earlier:

Lets say Bernie has 1791 pledged delegates (45%) for the first ballot, where 1991 is needed.

It will then go to a second ballot, as there is zero chance that Biden can hit 1991 if Sanders has 1791, as that leaves only 197 delegates won by ALL the others, and there is no way a combined Pete (now out), Amy, Warren, and Bloomberg end up with a total of only 197, that will never happen. They will have hundred and hundreds more than that, but on the first ballot, they are locked in to vote for their candidate.


So, we move onto the 2nd ballot. At this point, the magic 1991 number now goes up to 2375, as now the Superdelegates can vote and are included.

If no one gets 1,991 votes on the first ballot, then things could get more complicated. This is the scenario people refer to when they use the phrase “contested convention” or “brokered convention.”

In this situation, there would be a second ballot. And on the second ballot, there are votes from two sets of delegates:

Votes from the 3,979 pledged delegates, who are allowed to support a different candidate on the second ballot if they so choose

An additional 771 votes from “automatic delegates,” commonly known as superdelegates

To win the nomination, a candidate still must earn a majority of the votes on a given ballot. In this case, that means she or he must amass more than 2,375 pledged and automatic delegates. (In the second and subsequent rounds, a few automatic delegates get only half votes; the D.N.C. says the magic number is 2,375.5, which this time is not rounded up.)

It is theoretically possible that the nomination process would extend through multiple ballots until one candidate hits the magic number (2,375.5) and prevails. One thing to keep in mind is that delegates do not need to stay with the candidate to whom they were originally allocated and can move around.

This all means Bernie needs to gain 584 MORE delegates. All the pledged delegates are now unlocked and can switch, plus the SD's can vote for whomever they desire. I do not see him getting more than 150-200 MAX (if that) of the SD's. Most are vehemently against him.

So he needs around 400 to 450 or so MORE.

Even if ALL of Warren's delegates go to Bernie (that will never happen), she will more than likely have only around 150 to 200 total delegates.

So he will STILL be 200 to 300 SHORT of 2375.

I do not see many of the other candidates' delegates going to Bernie (other than Warren's and not all of hers will), and Bernie MAY lose a few himself. His campaign and social media and far left sites have savagely attacked Pete, Klobuchar, Biden, Warren, Bloomberg for ages. There is a LOT of animosity there.

In fact, Bernie could roll in with 47%, or even 48% and the breakdown still works. Biden was now said he will contest at the convention even if Bernie has a plurality, and IF Bernie does end up with 45%, it will be next to impossible for Biden to end up with more than 37%, 38% or so, MAX, due to the others running. He likely would be in the low 30's.

That said, IF they all rally around Biden on the 2nd ballot, you could have a 45% to 47, 48% Bernie (in terms of actual voted on pledged delegates, although as stated above this is extremely unlikely that he gets anywhere near that many at all) having the nomination ripped away from him. IF that happens, the party will rip itself apart and Trump will surely win. We are headed into dangerous, treacherous waters. I REALLY hope Biden can somehow pass up Sanders in terms of a plurality, and even better, somehow hit 1991 (probably impossible unless Sanders collapses and ALL but Joe drop out ASAP.)