2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: What I'd like to say to anyone who likes Bernie best but is afraid he's unelectable... [View all]jeff47
(26,549 posts)I don't see how she can win NC, for example. It's a rural/urban divide state, and the only thing that has caused us to win that split has been populism combined with Republicans turned off about their candidate. "Moral Mondays" were not about free trade and incrementalism.
If Clinton is the nominee, she will massively excite the Republicans in NC - To vote against her. Yes, Republicans don't like any Democrat, but they've spent 30 years turning Clinton into Satan incarnate. And with her centrist track record, I do not see how she can get enough urban turnout to overwhelm that.
So if Clinton is the nominee, I'm expecting my vote for president to be meaningless. I'll look at polling to see if it's remotely close when we are closer to election day, but I do not expect it to be.