2016 Postmortem

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

15. We know who has voted but we don't know how they voted.

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 01:20 PM

Nov 2012

The projections are based on party breakdown and projections on independent voting from the area. If you link back to the original article he explains his methodology.

Everyday the campaigns go to the polling stations and get the names of those that have voted and cross them off their GOTV list which details all of the people that they know support their candidate or who they believe that they lean toward their candidate. Then they call and have people drop by to see if they need help in getting to the poll.

From a statistical point of view the important thinkg is not so much having a perfect methodology as it is comparing numbers from 4 years ago.

Since they have the same numbers used in the same methodology 4 years ago we can tell how this cycle compares to the previous cycle. Its going to be close in NC, real close.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

25 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

10/27 Update on early voting NC and IA, good news, not great, and possibly great hard numbers. [View all] grantcart Oct 2012 OP

As far as Iowa goes... CoffeeCat Oct 2012 #1

NPR had a good story about satellite voting, and how the Dems were running circles around the Reps grantcart Oct 2012 #3

NC is doing great so far. LisaL Oct 2012 #2

Go Obama! Get out the vote and win this thing! Kteachums Oct 2012 #4

Thank you so much for these detailed updates. David Zephyr Oct 2012 #5

thank you grantcart Oct 2012 #8

grantcart, thanks for your post We need to keep kicked goclark Nov 2012 #13

That's actually GREAT news!!! demwing Oct 2012 #6

another way to look at this demwing Oct 2012 #7

Where did we have a 267,132 vote margin? onenote Nov 2012 #24

The issue comes down to whether or not Romney votes are McCain voters or grantcart Oct 2012 #11

New Votes v. Early Votes demwing Oct 2012 #12

I'm not following your math. onenote Nov 2012 #23

Really appreciate these posts. beac Oct 2012 #9

thanks grantcart Oct 2012 #10

great post! Sorry, I have a dumb question: faithfulcitizen Nov 2012 #14

We know who has voted but we don't know how they voted. grantcart Nov 2012 #15

ok, that's what I thought...thanks so much for the education! faithfulcitizen Nov 2012 #16

What do you mean 'good evidence' that Romney is shuffling one stack to another? What evidence? blue-kite Nov 2012 #17

That's what the links are for. If you want the indepth discussion, go there grantcart Nov 2012 #18

txs grantcart...k and r goclark Nov 2012 #20

Shouldn't Obama be leading Colorado? TroyD Nov 2012 #19

Yeah, polls have swung toward Obama in Colorado this week VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 #25

Here is the update from yesterday's early voting chapel hill dem Nov 2012 #21

understand and thanks grantcart Nov 2012 #22