2016 Postmortem

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts) Sat Oct 27, 2012, 07:22 PM Oct 2012

144

Nate Silver: Ohio is not a toss-up [View all]

Ohio Is Not a Toss Up
Nate Silver looks at the polling average in Ohio -- made up of roughly a dozen polling firms who have surveyed the state over the past 10 days -- and notes it shows President Obama with a 2.4 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney.

"There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich... It is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio's central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/27/ohio_is_not_a_toss_up.html

58 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Nate Silver: Ohio is not a toss-up [View all] WI_DEM Oct 2012 OP

All I know is... BlueDemKev Oct 2012 #1

well this is based on the polls all of which show Obama up in Ohio WI_DEM Oct 2012 #2

Nate had better get some good bodyguards, Rethugs want his head on a silver platter Justice4All1 Oct 2012 #6

YEAH! I think about that a lot, too. All the money that those koch schmucks, adelson, the swiftboat calimary Oct 2012 #14

Speaking of them throwing their money away - groundloop Oct 2012 #17

That's an intriguing thought. calimary Oct 2012 #28

fine, but as for early voting-- ginnyinWI Oct 2012 #27

OMG, will you Dems cut it out, the 1st debate was NOT disastrous, it was decent for Obama. Justice4All1 Oct 2012 #9

U R Right. 12AngryBorneoWildmen Oct 2012 #22

"Sometimes Dems are their own worst enemies." Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #23

Great quote and so true. klook Oct 2012 #51

Thanks for this, Justice4All! Cha Oct 2012 #30

Dems bought right into the GOP/media framing after the 1st debate. NYC Liberal Oct 2012 #35

The first debate was Muhammad Ali's famous "rope a dope" trick and with all Romney's changed xtraxritical Oct 2012 #42

Hillary/Biden? Flying Squirrel Oct 2012 #49

Julian Castro. dangerdoll Oct 2012 #54

That's sad. Maybe you should have Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #46

I like when Nate backs me up: morningfog Oct 2012 #3

LOL. Maybe it is us he should be consulting with before he makes a prediction. And Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2012 #32

in 2008 he was spot but except Indiana MFM008 Oct 2012 #4

With the early voter turnout so far in Northern/Northwest Indiana INdemo Oct 2012 #19

I'll keep hoping with you! BlueMTexpat Oct 2012 #38

I hope he right too. timlot Oct 2012 #5

Don't worry, Nate's not wrong. He knows what he's doing. Justice4All1 Oct 2012 #7

Welcome to DU, timlot! calimary Oct 2012 #15

Thanks! n/t CrazyOrangeCat Oct 2012 #8

Can't wait for this to be over deadbrokediva Oct 2012 #10

Nate has totally trashed and burned the Romney Rove false momentum ploy blazeKing Oct 2012 #11

Nate CloneClinton Oct 2012 #12

Welcome to DU, CloneClinton, blazeKing, and deadbrokediva! calimary Oct 2012 #16

Got that Bliztmeister? n/t flamingdem Oct 2012 #13

We need to send this to the MSM. They're still talking about "Mittmentum." jenmito Oct 2012 #18

HUGE K & R !!! - Thank You Nate !!! WillyT Oct 2012 #20

Nate has done a great disservice by including Gravis Marketing in his analysis. Major Hogwash Oct 2012 #21

I think Nate factors them cleduc Oct 2012 #31

No precedents? FBaggins Oct 2012 #24

The internals abumbyanyothername Oct 2012 #34

SSSHHHHH!!!!!! lobodons Oct 2012 #25

Let's hope you are mercymechap Oct 2012 #26

Niether is WI. craigmatic Oct 2012 #29

Then abumbyanyothername Oct 2012 #33

This is politics, so let us not use opera images. Always Randy Oct 2012 #41

Is it just me... Duke Newcombe Oct 2012 #36

so now you should know the corporate media is slanting predictions fascisthunter Oct 2012 #37

Ohio Polls showing a tie today BigPaul25 Oct 2012 #39

It's obvious that without vote flipping BO will win OH budkin Oct 2012 #40

It's not over until Rush Limbaugh sings! Always Randy Oct 2012 #43

Ohio gov. predicts Romney win as auto politics dominate dynasaw Oct 2012 #44

I guess the early voters need to prove mr (loosely said) Kasich wrong nt JanT Oct 2012 #45

No, not since summer. nt Deep13 Oct 2012 #47

Nate Is A Sane Voice In The Wilderness colsohlibgal Oct 2012 #48

Thanks WI_Dem! cheezmaka Oct 2012 #50

I still can't believe it's that close.... sebastianj333 Oct 2012 #52

Ohio is a state that must stay a "toss up" for the Republicans to hold on to any hope of winning... johnnyrocket Oct 2012 #53

VERY reassuring jonpaulprime Oct 2012 #55

Some of you don't seem to understand probability davidn3600 Oct 2012 #56

Just imagine if Romney had a 75% chance of winning OH Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #57

True, and it is important to get the vote out. wisteria Oct 2012 #58