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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Am I correct that Hillary needs to take 67% of the rest of the delegates to secure the nomination? [View all]Sancho
(9,070 posts)59. Here's the easiest way to visualize the primary delegates...
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
Hillary is ahead of her target to win, and all the projections show her continuing to win for the rest of the primary based on polls, demographic projections, and committed super delegates.
She is ahead in endorsements of political leaders, endorsements of unions, cash on hand, organization, primary state polls, and party support.
I hope Bernie stays in because the race stays on TV, helps get people registered, and identifies issues. Bernie has no way to win the primary at this point. He is a sparing partner.
Hillary's VP pick may be Hispanic or female, which will give her another boast in the GE. Bernie is now past his strongest showing with white, males in the NE and midwest caucuses. Most remaining states are more diverse and closed primaries. Bernie will continue to fall behind. He could easily lose some states by larger margins than NY. At best, Bernie could tie Hillary in a few contests.
Super delegates are loyal to the DNC (and see Bernie as an outsider), he is spending twice as much as Hillary and still losing, and rallies don't produce votes in most cases.
Hillary is ahead of her target to win, and all the projections show her continuing to win for the rest of the primary based on polls, demographic projections, and committed super delegates.
She is ahead in endorsements of political leaders, endorsements of unions, cash on hand, organization, primary state polls, and party support.
I hope Bernie stays in because the race stays on TV, helps get people registered, and identifies issues. Bernie has no way to win the primary at this point. He is a sparing partner.
Hillary's VP pick may be Hispanic or female, which will give her another boast in the GE. Bernie is now past his strongest showing with white, males in the NE and midwest caucuses. Most remaining states are more diverse and closed primaries. Bernie will continue to fall behind. He could easily lose some states by larger margins than NY. At best, Bernie could tie Hillary in a few contests.
Super delegates are loyal to the DNC (and see Bernie as an outsider), he is spending twice as much as Hillary and still losing, and rallies don't produce votes in most cases.
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Am I correct that Hillary needs to take 67% of the rest of the delegates to secure the nomination? [View all]
boomer55
Apr 2016
OP
Barring something earth shattering, yes. Supers are either irrelevant or undemocratic and should
morningfog
Apr 2016
#32
Thanks for pointing that out. I don't rememer how the election 8 years ago went
Unicorn
Apr 2016
#39
This isn't close at all. Hillary has a huge lead, and with proportional delegates in every state
Lucinda
Apr 2016
#41
You are incorrect about 2008. Hillary conceded and still a third of the supers stuck with her.
morningfog
Apr 2016
#10
She needs 175% of the remaining delegates, and Sanders needs just one delegate.
Buzz Clik
Apr 2016
#7
2,383 is the number. She likely won't hit that until the supers vote at the convention.
morningfog
Apr 2016
#26
Receiving enough earned delegates to win nomination outright will be difficult for her.
pa28
Apr 2016
#12
Hillary needs 67% of remaining pledged delegates to secure 2,383 through PDs alone.
morningfog
Apr 2016
#23
I don't think that' exactly true. She needs those delegate to go from a plurality to a majority.
HereSince1628
Apr 2016
#38