2016 Postmortem

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

30. I get that you recognize the reality of the situation.

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 04:10 PM

Apr 2016

I think others are actually buying the idea that it's a jumpball if Clinton doesn't hit 2383 pledged.

To me it's inconceivable Sanders would contest it if Clinton hits 2026 pledged.

I think Clinton will hold off declaring victory until she hits that number. She could declare earlier based on superdelegates if things go as expected, but that would be a bad idea.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

78 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Am I correct that Hillary needs to take 67% of the rest of the delegates to secure the nomination? [View all] boomer55 Apr 2016 OP

You are correct... pkdu Apr 2016 #1

No, you're not correct... SidDithers Apr 2016 #2

You are incorrect. You make some assumptions which are not certain. morningfog Apr 2016 #6

And superdelegates will do nothing more than be a rubber stamp... SidDithers Apr 2016 #14

Barring something earth shattering, yes. Supers are either irrelevant or undemocratic and should morningfog Apr 2016 #32

The supers vote with their states Stuckinthebush Apr 2016 #16

Best line ever! northernsouthern Apr 2016 #51

No Stuckinthebush Apr 2016 #64

Oh, I see. northernsouthern Apr 2016 #67

Never said any of that Stuckinthebush Apr 2016 #68

If you are serious northernsouthern Apr 2016 #69

I'm ok with the supers, yes Stuckinthebush Apr 2016 #71

I do think they are bought off. northernsouthern Apr 2016 #72

Well....no, they aren't "bought off" Stuckinthebush Apr 2016 #73

Sadly many of them. northernsouthern Apr 2016 #75

Wrong. they have to hit 2383 (I believe thats the correct number) Unicorn Apr 2016 #15

Nope. Once one of them reaches 2026 it is mathematically impossible Lucinda Apr 2016 #33

Which means at that point it goes to open convention. Unicorn Apr 2016 #34

No. It means that person will be the presumptive nominee. Lucinda Apr 2016 #35

No. Just first one this close. Unicorn Apr 2016 #36

The 2008 primary between Obama and Clinton was closer, much closer SFnomad Apr 2016 #37

Thanks for pointing that out. I don't rememer how the election 8 years ago went Unicorn Apr 2016 #39

This isn't close at all. Hillary has a huge lead, and with proportional delegates in every state Lucinda Apr 2016 #41

Incorrect TMontoya Apr 2016 #3

Oh? Did the DOJ and FBI end their investigations? CentralCoaster Apr 2016 #17

Yes it is TMontoya Apr 2016 #21

Since when? Yes, there are requirements. Unicorn Apr 2016 #20

.... MADem Apr 2016 #4

You are incorrect hack89 Apr 2016 #5

You are incorrect about 2008. Hillary conceded and still a third of the supers stuck with her. morningfog Apr 2016 #10

Hillary moved to stop the roll call and nominate Obama by acclamation. hack89 Apr 2016 #25

Probably. morningfog Apr 2016 #27

I know he will. He is a good Democrat. nt hack89 Apr 2016 #29

That was such a great moment at the 2008 Convention obamanut2012 Apr 2016 #58

She needs 175% of the remaining delegates, and Sanders needs just one delegate. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #7

LOL livetohike Apr 2016 #13

the key number is 2026 pledged delegates, not 2383 geek tragedy Apr 2016 #8

Bullshit. 2,026 is NOT the number needed to win. That is dead wrong. morningfog Apr 2016 #11

okay, then when Clinton passes 2383 including her superdelegates geek tragedy Apr 2016 #19

2,383 is the number. She likely won't hit that until the supers vote at the convention. morningfog Apr 2016 #26

I get that you recognize the reality of the situation. geek tragedy Apr 2016 #30

Automatic delegates do not vote separately. LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #42

2383 is the number that includes pledged and super delegates. You know that. stopbush Apr 2016 #78

Exactly right. yardwork Apr 2016 #60

Quite screwy. jcgoldie Apr 2016 #9

Receiving enough earned delegates to win nomination outright will be difficult for her. pa28 Apr 2016 #12

Every delegate is earned Stuckinthebush Apr 2016 #18

Not quite, or not in the same ways. Orsino Apr 2016 #74

Sanders will not contest the nomination if he loses the voting. geek tragedy Apr 2016 #22

^^^^^^^^^^^ pdsimdars Apr 2016 #40

which means, by your definition, 2008 was an "open" convention onenote Apr 2016 #66

Not my definition. That is the definition and it doesn't happen very often. pa28 Apr 2016 #70

Hillary needs 67% of remaining pledged delegates to secure 2,383 through PDs alone. morningfog Apr 2016 #23

this is an accurate statement. nt geek tragedy Apr 2016 #24

thanks all boomer55 Apr 2016 #28

Hillary has 1930 delegates including everything. She needs around 459 more. Renew Deal Apr 2016 #31

I don't think that' exactly true. She needs those delegate to go from a plurality to a majority. HereSince1628 Apr 2016 #38

VIII. Procedural Rules of the 2016 Democratic National Convention LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #43

I think they can make a motion to suspend the rules HereSince1628 Apr 2016 #45

Highly unlikely to change that aspect. LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #46

Define who could be the delegates in "of the delegates voting" HereSince1628 Apr 2016 #47

She needs the majority of all delegates present at the the convention. LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #44

No you are not correct Demsrule86 Apr 2016 #48

If he truly loves this country he'll stay in boomer55 Apr 2016 #49

I vote for screwy math cemaphonic Apr 2016 #50

You are correct. TM99 Apr 2016 #52

Message auto-removed Name removed Apr 2016 #53

What does it matter? TM99 Apr 2016 #55

After PA and MD it will be less. nt Jitter65 Apr 2016 #54

No that is simply false Gothmog Apr 2016 #56

You left out a few words... Thor_MN Apr 2016 #57

Here's the easiest way to visualize the primary delegates... Sancho Apr 2016 #59

Your title is a bit misleading. Adrahil Apr 2016 #61

Not correct. Agschmid Apr 2016 #62

Message auto-removed Name removed Apr 2016 #63

No, you're not correct. You are applying #BernieMath. nt LexVegas Apr 2016 #65

Careful...basic math doesn't go over well here nt UMTerp01 Apr 2016 #76

Basic math shows that a majority of pledged deletes is 2026. The higher number that Bernie people pnwmom Apr 2016 #77