Let's predict Wisconsin.

[geek tragedy]

Polls show a close race. Demographics and 2008 indicate a Sanders blowout.

Which metrics do you trust?

1) Polls show a very tight race--Sanders +1 to Clinton +6 (the Marquette poll should be coming out later this week for its final installment) (the poll showing Clinton ahead is landline only)

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_73d4ad9247704c9488a764acae6f7767.pdf

http://fox6now.com/2016/02/25/new-marquette-university-law-school-poll/

fivethirtyeight.com shows a 69% chance of Clinton winning based on polls-only

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-democratic/#polls-only

2) Fivethirtyeight.com puts Sanders's target at 48/86--56%.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

3) In 2008, Barack Obama won Wisconsin 58-40 over Clinton (he won the white vote 54-45).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin_Democratic_primary,_2008

So, either the polls are right, or the demographics and history are misleading us.

Which is right? What will happen.

7 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Virtual tie--winner gets no more than 51%, de minimis delegate effect
	0 (0%)
	Clinton wins with 51-55% of the vote
	0 (0%)
	Clinton wins with over 55% of the vote
	0 (0%)
	Sanders wins with 51-55% of the vote
	2 (29%)
	Sanders wins with over 55% of the vote
	5 (71%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll