2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Hillary Clinton Is Now the Presumptive Democratic Nominee [View all]yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)And the point is, given the map and Clinton's momentum, Bernie is extremely unlikely to win 57% of the remaining delegates. I am not a big fan of Clinton. But neither am I willing to just ignore the math. To do what you are suggesting, Bernie would pretty much have to win nearly everything from now on by significant margins. Getting big wins in a few states like Arizona, Washington and Idaho is not going to cut it. Do you really think he is going to thump Clinton in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, and California, for example? It would take a big shift in momentum for him to even come close in all of these states, let alone win big. And by thumping I mean winning by 20 points or so. That is the only way he gets 57% of the remaining delegates. Winning or losing by a couple of points in these delegate rich states gets him close to 50% of the remaining delegates. Throw in a couple of percentage points for big wins in places like Arizona and Idaho and he still falls short. And that assumes that he pretty much runs the table of all the states remaining. It is not going to happen. I don't think Bernie should drop out. But neither do I think he has close to a realistic chance of winning the majority of the elected delegates.
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