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2016 Postmortem

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jezebel

(1,772 posts)
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:10 AM Oct 2012

New ABC/WaPo poll Obama 49/ Romney 46 (-1) LV. Swing States Obama 51/Romney 46 [View all]

Conducted Oct 10 - 13

Pres. Obama approval is 50

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/enthusiasm-rises-for-romney-obama-has-a-right-track-retort/

ISSUES and ATTRIBUTES — A challenge for Romney is that he’s yet to break out on any issue, especially his key opportunity, the economy. Likely voters divide essentially evenly, 48-47 percent, on which candidate they trust more to handle the economy, Obama or Romney. Also, a tepid 51 percent of likely voters express confidence the economy will improve under Romney, vs. a similar 48 percent who are confident it’ll get better under Obama.

On other issues, Romney does best among likely voters, 51-43 percent vs. Obama, in trust to handle the deficit. But Obama’s opened a lead, +13 points, in trust to handle Medicare, leads by a slight 9 points in trust to handle a major crisis and 7 points on international affairs. The two run evenly in trust to handle health care — traditionally a better issue for Democrats — but also in trust to handle taxes, customarily better for the Republican candidate.

Romney’s opportunity is reflected in the overwhelming judgment, by 69-18 percent among registered voters, that he won the first debate; 35 percent say they came away with a better opinion of him overall — a much better impact than Obama realized in 2008. The outcome of the first debate was a surprise; in a pre-debate ABC/Post poll, 56 percent expected an Obama win.
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much more at link.

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This is terrible. Obama is losing Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #1
none of should ever take anything for granted. I would hope we have learned from the 1st still_one Oct 2012 #5
What does overconfidence have to do Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #8
Everything to do with it. The president took it for granted, and did not call romney on the lies, still_one Oct 2012 #15
How do you know he took it for granted? Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #19
not to belabor the point, but when the President said that romney's social security plan was still_one Oct 2012 #28
point belabored Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #51
I think you both make good points. Cautious optimism best describes my feelings. But, I.... Tarheel_Dem Oct 2012 #16
agreed still_one Oct 2012 #27
+1 smackd Oct 2012 #22
It was the media whose expectations apparently weren't met. grasswire Oct 2012 #34
Really. I guess most the people on DU didn't count, and the polls meant nothing. /nt still_one Oct 2012 #42
LOL mzmolly Oct 2012 #17
I'm not worried about TroyD...... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #49
You scared the crap out of me! mimi85 Oct 2012 #52
I'm very happy to see those numbers TroyD Oct 2012 #56
+1 bushisanidiot Oct 2012 #62
"A clear lead for Mitt Romney"... Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #2
I'm sick and tired of the media saying bigdarryl Oct 2012 #3
Exactly. LisaL Oct 2012 #6
Damn right treestar Oct 2012 #53
Fuckin' A n/t Azathoth Oct 2012 #4
I suspected that the trend would move our direction after Biden. Now the ball is in the Presidents still_one Oct 2012 #7
Absolutely Cosmocat Oct 2012 #54
cant wait to see how MFM008 Oct 2012 #9
this is more like it. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #10
Thanks! woolldog Oct 2012 #11
Whoa! That's an amazing poll for us. I bet RCP doesn't add it until tomorrow afternoon. tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #12
Huge News VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #13
"a SLIGHT 9 points"? ProfessionalLeftist Oct 2012 #14
"Since WHEN is 9 points considered "slight"?" Tarheel_Dem Oct 2012 #18
"slight" - in this case is... dchill Oct 2012 #47
Good: But Obama’s opened a lead, +13 points, in trust to handle Medicare flamingdem Oct 2012 #20
better numbers than before the debate Democrats4All Oct 2012 #21
Finally rebounding from that debate BS budkin Oct 2012 #23
Now that's what I'm talking about! Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #24
Is Andrew Sullivan still on suicide watch? This is a real poll, not some robo junk geek tragedy Oct 2012 #25
Considering that is LV, then it's doubly-good. nt progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #26
I believe Registered Voters have Obama up 7 (vs 3 Likely Voters). Pirate Smile Oct 2012 #30
A bit disappointing that the enthusiasm gap persists. woolldog Oct 2012 #31
Obama is Over 50% approval - at 51%. Pirate Smile Oct 2012 #32
As long as democrats still get out there and vote, I don't care how enthusiastic they say they are. LisaL Oct 2012 #41
TOLD you I'd clean things up! SunSeeker Oct 2012 #29
<snip> ffr Oct 2012 #33
Obama has spent tens of millions on organization alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #35
So true. My mother is in Florida, someone came by the house today to make sure she had the absentee demgrrrll Oct 2012 #37
Thanks for that report from Florida, Degrrrll :) nm Cha Oct 2012 #44
I really don't see how Romney can make up the gap in OH abumbyanyothername Oct 2012 #38
You can't take these numbers as gospel. LisaL Oct 2012 #40
+1,000! Surya Gayatri Oct 2012 #50
SIGH (relief!) demwing Oct 2012 #36
Alright, 6 polls today showing Obama in the lead Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #39
I don't think this poll has been Obama friendly in the past BluegrassDem Oct 2012 #43
47% imgbitepolitic Oct 2012 #45
karma is real eom littlemissmartypants Oct 2012 #46
I like the angle they chose for the article's title and content versus... tandem5 Oct 2012 #48
Bye bye debate bounce. Now Obama, come out HARD Tuesday and FINISH THIS ASSHOLE OFF ! RBInMaine Oct 2012 #55
"battleground states . . .dividing by 51-46 percent, Obama-Romney (not a significant difference)" TroyD Oct 2012 #57
So Romney actually dropped 1 point among LV? TroyD Oct 2012 #58
Good ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #59
Post removed Post removed Oct 2012 #60
You signed up today to post that? Get lost, I think. morningfog Oct 2012 #66
Oh NO! CONCERN CONCERN CONCERN! bushisanidiot Oct 2012 #61
Important number on Unemployment TroyD Oct 2012 #63
RCP has added the ABC poll (& the Politico one) TroyD Oct 2012 #64
Medicare TroyD Oct 2012 #65
The President's lead among registered voters is ProSense Oct 2012 #67
President Obama gains from improving economy ProSense Oct 2012 #68
Jobs number TroyD Oct 2012 #69
K&R thevoiceofreason Oct 2012 #70
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