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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Sanders Beats Clinton 49-49: The Real Story Behind the Iowa Numbers [View all]Gothmog
(146,403 posts)19. According to the Cook Report, Sanders needed to win 70% of the Iowa delegates to be competitive
According to one of the experts for the Cook Report, Sanders needs to win big in Iowa to have a chance http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/sanders-needs-more-than-a-win-in-iowa-to-beat-clinton
As David Wasserman wrote in the Cook Political Report last week, "98 percent of pledged Democratic delegates will come from states with lower shares of liberal whites than Iowa and New Hampshire." That is a big problem for Sanders who has yet to prove he can expand his base....
Yet, even then, delegate allocation is proportional, which means that Sanders would have to begin winning by major margins to make the race a serious contest.
Wasserman estimates that according to his models, Sanders would "need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates and 63 percent of New Hampshire's delegates" to even "be on track" to stay competitive with Clinton in later states where demographically speaking, Clinton has shown she has more support. And in a states like Florida and South Carolina, Clinton leads in recent polls by 36 points and 19 points, respectively.
"It is not merely the delegate process that favors Hillary, it is the voters. She has earned the loyalty and support of communities of color, women, the LGBTQ community, environmentalists, and other vital parts of the Democratic coalition," says Democratic strategist Paul Begala, a Clinton supporter. "Bernie's coalition - so far - is more narrow. It is impressive in its energy and its passion, but it is, I think, more narrow."
Yet, even then, delegate allocation is proportional, which means that Sanders would have to begin winning by major margins to make the race a serious contest.
Wasserman estimates that according to his models, Sanders would "need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates and 63 percent of New Hampshire's delegates" to even "be on track" to stay competitive with Clinton in later states where demographically speaking, Clinton has shown she has more support. And in a states like Florida and South Carolina, Clinton leads in recent polls by 36 points and 19 points, respectively.
"It is not merely the delegate process that favors Hillary, it is the voters. She has earned the loyalty and support of communities of color, women, the LGBTQ community, environmentalists, and other vital parts of the Democratic coalition," says Democratic strategist Paul Begala, a Clinton supporter. "Bernie's coalition - so far - is more narrow. It is impressive in its energy and its passion, but it is, I think, more narrow."
The Cook Report has some good analysis.
Sanders did not come close to the 70% number
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Sanders Beats Clinton 49-49: The Real Story Behind the Iowa Numbers [View all]
UglyGreed
Feb 2016
OP
Not really.. the number of delegates in Iowa is small.. it all about PERCEPTION.
basselope
Feb 2016
#20
Maybe. Just maybe, that is the difference between the Clinton canpaign and the Sanders campaign.
pangaia
Feb 2016
#22
If that happens, it happens. But I doubt it. The other thing about her stronghold,
pnwmom
Feb 2016
#94
Only 2% of the delegates come from states as white and liberal as Iowa and New Hampshire
Gothmog
Feb 2016
#98
According to the Cook Report, Sanders needed to win 70% of the Iowa delegates to be competitive
Gothmog
Feb 2016
#19
Iowa showed Sanders' viability and Hillary's vulnerabilty. That's a big win for Sanders.
senz
Feb 2016
#55
That is an excellent analysis. I kept seeing from lots of sources that he needed to win Iowa to be
Number23
Feb 2016
#73
Great article. That seemed like a levelheaded, accurate assessment of this election.
Gregorian
Feb 2016
#42
Sanders started off with a huge SD deficit. He did NOTHING to help himself in IA.
Bleacher Creature
Feb 2016
#83