Unravelling the myth of a "carbon budget" for 1.5C

[GliderGuider]

Unravelling the myth of a "carbon budget" for 1.5C

• The published 1.5°C carbon budgets all have an unacceptably high risk — of a one-in-three or greater chance — of exceeding the target temperature. Scenarios with a 50% chance of not exceeding the 1.5°C target have a 33% chance of exceeding 2°C of warming, and a 10% chance of exceeding 3°C of warming.
  
  
• All published 1.5°C emissions-reduction scenarios for this century involve significantly “overshooting” the target for several decades (up to 1.8°C of warming) before returning to the target figure by 2100.
  From a sensible risk-management viewpoint, there is no carbon budget available for the 1.5°C target. Thus, achieving 1.5°C in the medium term means drawing down every ton of carbon dioxide emitted from now on.
  
  
• The damage that will eventually be caused by the current level of warming of 1°C is beyond adaptation for many nations and peoples. 1.5°C is not a safe target.]

We're done, finished, kaputt. Anything we do from here on is just a desperate rear-guard action that will make no difference to the outcome. The outcome is the extinction of the human species, possibly within a double-handful of decades.

So do whatever you feel like, but know that you're doing it only because it makes you, personally, feel better about your actions in the world.