01 Apr: Unexpected. Ukrainians Forced to cancel Bakhmut Counteroffensive - Reporting from Ukraine

[TexasTowelie]

Day 402: April 01

Since Russian mass media published information about tunnels two days ago, it means that the Wagner forces extracted it from Ukrainian prisoners of war around a week ago. And this was exactly the time when Wagner forces started noticeably shifting their focus to the city, and the number of assaults on the flanks started to decrease.

In fact, the United Kingdom Ministry of Defense assessed on 25 March that the Russian offensive efforts around Bakhmut are stalling. On the same day, the spokesman for the Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces noted that Russian forces conducted 18 ground attacks near Bakhmut even though usually they conducted up to 50. The next day, he noted that Russian forces seemed to be maneuvering with reserves.

Ukrainian Intelligence reported that unspecified conventional Russian forces are reinforcing the Wagner Group around Bakhmut. At the same time, Russian bloggers launched a crowdfunding campaign, automatically disclosing that Russians have relocated airborne units to Soledar to reinforce Wagner’s northern flank. Later it was also revealed that certain motorized elements augmented Wagner forces in the area.

The Institute for the Study of War assessed the situation and stated that due to the ongoing process of substitution of different elements of Russian forces, the pace of operations slowed along critical sectors of the front, giving Ukrainian forces an increased opportunity to regain the initiative.

And this is exactly what started to happen. Ukrainians conducted a tank assault on the Sloviansk highway and pushed Russians from one of the highest positions in the region. Ukrainians pushed Russians from the tree lines on the hills in front of the Khromove highway, which means that Russians no longer can use Anti-Tank Guided Missiles to hit Ukrainian vehicles on the highway. And recently released 3-day-old footage also shows that Ukrainians conducted a successful counterattack south of Ivanivske, pushing Russians away from the tree line in front of the village.

The Head of the Wagner forces, Prigozhin, started to worry about the security of his flanks. Unfamiliarity with the local landscape as well as poor equipment, started playing a role. The poor quality of equipment is obvious since they had to launch a crowdfunding campaign. Prigozhin called for conventional Russian forces around Bakhmut to hold the flanks and even made a video with a map showing how catastrophic would be a failure to do so.

It seemed like the conditions for the Ukrainian counteroffensive had been becoming better until the weather gave everyone a huge surprise. Two days ago, the temperatures dropped, and it started raining with snow. The temperatures continued to drop, and already yesterday, everything was covered with snow. Snowfall in April is an anomaly in and of itself, but on top of that, this snowfall turned out to be the biggest of the decade. The snow completely covered the ground and trenches and made infantry fights impossible. In some places, the snow is so deep that it reaches the waist. Needless to say that when so much snow thaws, all trenches will turn into swimming pools and the ground to mud. And the situation could improve rapidly if these days were immediately followed by a week or two of really hot and sunny weather, but the current forecast indicates that there will be 9 rainy days in the next 2 weeks. With the conditions that Ukrainians are facing right now, the counteroffensive operation in April will likely be canceled.

Overall, despite favorable changes on the ground, such as the substitution of forces that are protecting Russians flanks, and the fact that their forces are less capable of protecting them, Ukrainians still will not be able to leverage their recent tactical gains to launch a counteroffensive due to the heavy snowfall. But there is a positive side as well. First of all, Russians also cannot attack, giving Ukrainians more time to import Western equipment and train 8 newly formed assault brigades, as reported by the Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs. And secondly, Ukrainians managed to improve the security of the highways right on time and will be able to use them when the ground turns to mud.