Clinton Leads Trump by 6 Points After Democratic Confab: Reuters/Ipsos Poll

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11. Only 76% are facing up to the real choice (Clinton v Trump) at this point

Jim Messina the other night, on Charlie Rose, explained that at this point in a presidential election cycle (immediate post conventions), it's almost always 45% to 45%. It's solid Democrats vs solid Republicans, with the other 10% moving one direction or another as the cycle progresses through the debates, and then the final stages.

This poll, if accurate, reflects, then, that Trump is losing the Republican base, badly. Without that strong base support, he's in big hot water. Add to this that he does not have any African American, Latino, or other minority support (and most likely not the Arab American support that GW Bush had). And he faces a huge gender gap with women. There is no way he can win this election, folks.

The vast majority of the 24% of respondents who picked "other" at this point, are wounded souls who will largely line up with one candidate or another in the end. Most Americans are realists, though admittedly a small number will go for Johnson or Stein.