Dallas Ebola infection/incubation timeline 10.19.14 (Duncan's family in 21st day!)

[morningfog]

Days since Duncan showed symptoms (Sept. 24)......24 days.


Days since Duncan was isolated (Sept. 28).....20 days -- 48 people are being observed in this group, including his family and the first responders. No one from this group has shown any symptoms of infection. This is their 21st day!


Days since Duncan's death (Oct. 8)......10 days -- 76 people provided care to Duncan before his death. As of today, two nurses, Nina Pham and Amber Vinson, have shown symptoms and infection has been confirmed.


Days since Pham showed symptoms (Oct. 10).....8 days -- One person is being observed as having direct contact with Pham after she showed symptoms. She's being treated at NIH in Maryland.

Days since Vinson showed symptoms (Oct. 14)......4 days -- Vinson flew on a commercial flight (with some 100 other passengers) from Cleveland to Dallas with a temperature of 99.4 degrees. She was quarantined and transferred to Emory.

______________________________________________________


The class of people exposed to Duncan pre-isolation have not shown symptoms and likely will not. The incubation period of this strain is 7-10 days in most people who become infected. Today is the 21st day since exposure and tomorrow the incubation period will expire.

Both Pham and Vinson were isolated when they had no symptoms other than a low-grade fever. Their viral load was low and it is unlikely they infected anyone prior to isolation.

The 74 other people in the same class/timeline as Pham and Vinson are nearing the end of the most critical period.l period. If more were infected, they would most likely have shown symptoms by today, the 10th day. However, they have another 11 days before the 21 day incubation period expires.

Of course, the clock has just started (and will restart) for those treating Pham and Vinson. Pham has been upgraded to "good condition" following treatment and a blood transfusion from Dr. Brantly. VInson is to be transferred to Emory for treatment.


Duncan's pre-isolation contacts are out of the woods. No one outside of the hospital was infected by Duncan.

Pham and Vinson are being treated in centers who know what they are doing. It is unlikely any workers there will be infected, even i their current conditions deteriorate.

Pham and Vinson each had close contact with one individual after their temperature rose. Other than those two, there is little to no worry whatsoever of infection for those on the plane, in the general public, in schools,on cruise ships or anywhere in Ohio or Dallas.

In short, we are nearing a point, despite the fear and paranoia, where we can feel safe that Ebola in the US was contained to three individuals.