General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Sitting in a restaurant today I realized how much trouble we are in for [View all]HiPointDem
(20,729 posts)For example, here are some of the dates when the Trustees have predicted that the Trust Funds will be exhausted:
1996: 2029
1999: 2034
2004: 2042
2007: 2041
2011: 2036
What's the difference? The prevailing economic conditions and the assumptions the Trustees make about birth rates, immigration, death rates, productivity, etc.
Do you know that the Trustees actually make three forecasts, but the only one you hear about is the intermediate forecast, even though the "optimistic" forecast has usually been more accurate in the short-run?
Do you know who the SS Trustees are? For example, in 2011, Tim Geithner was one.
Do you know what the 75-year actuarial shortfall is, assuming the Trustees predictions are right as rain? Depends on the year, but about 2% or less of taxable payroll. Which means a 1% increase each on the employer and employee. That's about $40 a month if you make $50K.
Why do you think there was a payroll tax holiday, really? Only the employed got it, and of those, the highest-paid people got the most benefit. Oh, and employers. So it wasn't that effective as a stimulus (stimulus is most effective when it goes to the bottom).
But it's sure going to screw up this year's SS projections.
Never underestimate the degree to which the ruling class selects the evidence they present to you in order to get what they want.