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Recursion

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2. That's the basis of the Freakonomics argument

Sun Apr 28, 2013, 02:38 AM

Apr 2013

Which tied the drop to Roe v. Wade. There's since been some pushback against that (access to abortion doesn't seem to lower total fertility rates, just space out when the children are born), but certainly demographic factors would seem to be a huge part of this. I was born in 1976, which was the nadir of American fertility (my cohort is the smallest since WWII in absolute numbers), so there weren't very many teenage boys my age 20 years ago, and the crime rate crashed. This also has a spillover effect since there weren't very many of us to "teach" the millenials how to commit crimes.

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The most important criminological trend of our time is completely ignored [View all] Recursion Apr 2013 OP

a criminologist told me BainsBane Apr 2013 #1

That's the basis of the Freakonomics argument Recursion Apr 2013 #2

irrespective of the argument about abortion rights BainsBane Apr 2013 #4

Yeah, it's probably self-reinforcing, Benton D Struckcheon Apr 2013 #6

It's orthogonal to the right's and left's hobby horses Recursion Apr 2013 #8

Not familiar with DC's gun laws, Benton D Struckcheon Apr 2013 #10

DC had a total gun ban. But it was easier to buy a gun in DC than VA. Recursion Apr 2013 #11

And yet criminologists studying the DC gun ban concluded that it saved 47 lives per year. DanTex Apr 2013 #16

That study is from 1991, before the 90s crime spike Recursion Apr 2013 #18

Exactly. It measured the effect of the gun ban itself, before it was dwarfed by national trends. DanTex Apr 2013 #19

Given that it is now 2013 enlightenment Apr 2013 #29

The guys that put together Freakenomics... WCGreen Apr 2013 #3

The Freakonomics guys were ambivalent about lead Recursion Apr 2013 #5

the correlation is POPULATION. Plain and simple. BlancheSplanchnik Apr 2013 #7

Umm... but the population has been increasing Recursion Apr 2013 #9

Hrrrmmmmm.....maybe I was reading the graphs wrong...... BlancheSplanchnik Apr 2013 #25

It's still growth kudzu22 Apr 2013 #35

The biggest difference between then and now is the reporting. Archae Apr 2013 #12

We have great media diversity -- using the same script. Eleanors38 Apr 2013 #34

For something that's "completely ignored", a lot sure gets written about it muriel_volestrangler Apr 2013 #13

Name a politician who has suggested environmental or social solutions to crime Recursion Apr 2013 #14

President Obama: muriel_volestrangler Apr 2013 #15

So it looks like we've made no progress since 1976 on gun violence. DanTex Apr 2013 #17

Like 10,000 gun homicides a year isn't a problem. baldguy Apr 2013 #20

That nonsense again Recursion Apr 2013 #21

Ha.. I LOLed Pelican Apr 2013 #22

Because Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia etc are so similar to the US. baldguy Apr 2013 #24

Thanks for this post. nt redqueen Apr 2013 #26

Because Russia isn't a kleptocracy jeff47 Apr 2013 #30

Are you saying we aren't a kleptocracy and facing a massive drug war (of our own choosing)? Recursion Apr 2013 #32

Yes. jeff47 Apr 2013 #33

The other 460,000 gun crimes are no big deal, either! tabasco Apr 2013 #23

ban assault weapons and institute background checks for all gun purchases. spanone Apr 2013 #27

Automatic weapons are banned hack89 Apr 2013 #28

thanks, made correction... spanone Apr 2013 #31

The spikes correspond to Prohibition and the War on Drugs NickB79 Apr 2013 #36