So basically... no negotiations

[dutch777]

4. Putin is counting on enough cannon fodder from his draft to get some progress in the Donbass

Right now they are hamstrung by mud and Russia is largely doing very old school infantry assaults...the on foot kind in many areas. Getting lots of kids killed but the Ukrainians can only shoot for so long until they have to pull back or risk running out of ammo and getting overrun. When the ground dries and temps warm I would expect both sides to resume combined arms attacks as a part of a spring offensive. Sooner or later, the Russians will learn and get their act more together tactically and that will stretch the Ukrainians very hard. Unless the Russians stall militarily with no more bodies and/or weapons to spend or they make gains that get them the annexed territories, they won't negotiate in any good faith way.

For the Ukrainians' part they are so righteously ticked off that short of seeing a likelihood they will lose the whole country to Russian forces or the EU/West ceasing arms and other support and pressuring them to negotiate, other than accepting Russia's surrender and the Rs leaving all of Ukraine I wouldn't expect to see them at any table with the Russians.