Will Roe V Wade tip the midterms towards Democrats?

[Jedi Guy]

11. I went with the "Maybe" option for a number of reasons.

The electorate tends to have short memories. We're a little over four months out from the midterms. For a lot of voters, this will likely end up being background noise that fades to a hum between now and then, especially as the usual summer shootings and other insanity pushes it out of their minds.

This series of wins for the right will also fire them up, and you'd better believe their leaders will find something else to keep them riled up, such as LGBTQ rights issues, CRT, etc. etc. They've got plenty of bugaboos to work with to keep their base amped up. So while this will certainly fire up the Democratic base, it'll cancel out to some extent.

And possibly the biggest reason is that a lot of people care much more about kitchen table issues like inflation, the economy, the price of gas and food, etc. Those concerns are almost always top of mind in any election, so if those concerns still exist in November, and it seems like that'll be the case, I think that's where most people will be coming from when they vote.

Then there are the historical precedents of the party in power facing headwinds in the midterms, which is a whole other ball of wax.