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In reply to the discussion: Things are about to get a whole lot tougher for Nate Silver [View all]grantcart
(53,061 posts)106. As I stated clearly before Nate's model was designed based on baseball which had no
problems with the supply of statistics. In 2008 you had an explosion of polls many times more than this year due to a completely different primary context generating thousands of statewide polls.
I am not a statistician but I qualified as an intertnational ISO 9001 Systems inspector. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_9000
There are 20 key elements that are needed to maintain quaility in any system. One of them, and you could consider it the most important is establishing the quality standards of your raw material because once it is in your factory it is impossible to improve the quality of the raw material you have received.
So Nate Silver's model had two weakenesses. The first it requires more statistics than the market normally produces. 2008 was an exception year 2012 is a more typical one.
The second Nate did not make a serious enough attempt at grading the raw material.
I am not going to pursue this any further with you except to say that the working group on Gravis now has materials into the hundreds of pages and it is so voluminous that we are having a hard time cataloging it. When it becomes published, and it will, Gravis Marketing is going to be laughed off the scene.
Anyone who continues to attach any weight to Gravis Marketing is going to be discredited.
In ISO 9001 we stay away from words like 'incompetent' or 'nefarious'. In ISO 9001 terms Silver's 538 site is "non conforming to a quality standard". You either conform to a quality standard or you don't. In Nate's case he didn't.
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The G.O.P. polling strategy is so obvious that it discredits any commentater who falls for it.
Tom Rinaldo
Oct 2012
#1
What are you suggesting? If the Dems try to beat them at the hypnotic hoodwinking game
anAustralianobserver
Oct 2012
#89
They were clearly chomping at the bit for more of a horse race to this thing.
Warren DeMontague
Oct 2012
#58
Especially when they made a miraculous 500 calls in Pennsylvania in just a couple of hours.
grantcart
Oct 2012
#6
Get real. Two weeks ago the pollsters suddenly switched from Registered Voters (RVs) to....
OldDem2012
Oct 2012
#114
Denver and Colorado Springs are home to most of Colorado's African-American population
jayschool
Oct 2012
#122
Name 6 major Democratic poling firms that are cited in the MSM. now...
progressivebydesign
Oct 2012
#33
Agree with you...Nate needs to make some choices about the polls he keeps....
OldDem2012
Oct 2012
#9
however...there is a truism about rasmussen-(though its sometimes hard to find the proof)
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#19
I'd like to offer a correction to that statement which I believe is significant.
gkhouston
Oct 2012
#41
NO WE DON"t==there are 4 to 8 brand new companies that only started after aggregates blocked Ras
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#55
Obama is now where he was before the debate. Mitt & Glove gained nothing but statistical noise
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#59
Who was better? Willie Mays or Derek Jeter? I rest my case. (Willie of course).
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#61
As I stated clearly before Nate's model was designed based on baseball which had no
grantcart
Oct 2012
#106
If you are not aware of the fact that in 2008 that there was the most extensive primary campaign in
grantcart
Oct 2012
#110
yes conversations are going on by other DUers. We expect something to be ublished by Thus.
grantcart
Oct 2012
#24
It is a drawback that he is strictly a numbers guy & admitted that he doesn't like politics
Lex
Oct 2012
#46
YOu heard that Rob Portman was talking today about Romney doing it without Ohio didn't you?
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#77
I'd like to see a Michael Moore exposé on the corruption and pundit-abuse of polling.
anAustralianobserver
Oct 2012
#86
The GOP is trying to make it look close. They want to steal the election without having a revolution
judesedit
Oct 2012
#100
But seldom is it an outright fraud by known con people with previous citations by the FCC.
grantcart
Oct 2012
#107