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Showing Original Post only (View all)Things are about to get a whole lot tougher for Nate Silver [View all]
From the Political Wire
Too Tough to Forecast?
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/15/oct-14-breaking-the-state-national-poll-stalemate/
Nate Silver: "If the current polls hold, predicting the election outcome will boil down to making a series of educated guesses about the relationship between state and national polls, and between the Electoral College and the popular vote."
"There have been plenty of elections before when the outcome was highly uncertain down the stretch run or on Election Day itself. But I am not sure that there has been one where different types of polls pointed in opposite directions. Anyone in my business who is not a bit terrified by this set of facts is either lying to himself -- or he doesn't know what he's doing."
Well Nate if you are going to trust every Tom Dick and Doug Kaplan that comes your way you are going to make a mess out of it.
You are actually going to have to look at the pollsters and start throwing some of them out, and give others only a token weight.
But when you are flooded by polls from the right wing including Gravis, ARG, Purple Strategies, WeAskAmerica and Rasmussen you are being played, and being played badly.
Did you really think that with hundreds of millions of dollars going around that they wouldn't try and play the ref by flooding you with a lot of right wing polls?
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The G.O.P. polling strategy is so obvious that it discredits any commentater who falls for it.
Tom Rinaldo
Oct 2012
#1
What are you suggesting? If the Dems try to beat them at the hypnotic hoodwinking game
anAustralianobserver
Oct 2012
#89
They were clearly chomping at the bit for more of a horse race to this thing.
Warren DeMontague
Oct 2012
#58
Especially when they made a miraculous 500 calls in Pennsylvania in just a couple of hours.
grantcart
Oct 2012
#6
Get real. Two weeks ago the pollsters suddenly switched from Registered Voters (RVs) to....
OldDem2012
Oct 2012
#114
Denver and Colorado Springs are home to most of Colorado's African-American population
jayschool
Oct 2012
#122
Name 6 major Democratic poling firms that are cited in the MSM. now...
progressivebydesign
Oct 2012
#33
Agree with you...Nate needs to make some choices about the polls he keeps....
OldDem2012
Oct 2012
#9
however...there is a truism about rasmussen-(though its sometimes hard to find the proof)
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#19
I'd like to offer a correction to that statement which I believe is significant.
gkhouston
Oct 2012
#41
NO WE DON"t==there are 4 to 8 brand new companies that only started after aggregates blocked Ras
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#55
Obama is now where he was before the debate. Mitt & Glove gained nothing but statistical noise
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#59
Who was better? Willie Mays or Derek Jeter? I rest my case. (Willie of course).
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#61
As I stated clearly before Nate's model was designed based on baseball which had no
grantcart
Oct 2012
#106
If you are not aware of the fact that in 2008 that there was the most extensive primary campaign in
grantcart
Oct 2012
#110
yes conversations are going on by other DUers. We expect something to be ublished by Thus.
grantcart
Oct 2012
#24
It is a drawback that he is strictly a numbers guy & admitted that he doesn't like politics
Lex
Oct 2012
#46
YOu heard that Rob Portman was talking today about Romney doing it without Ohio didn't you?
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#77
I'd like to see a Michael Moore exposé on the corruption and pundit-abuse of polling.
anAustralianobserver
Oct 2012
#86
The GOP is trying to make it look close. They want to steal the election without having a revolution
judesedit
Oct 2012
#100
But seldom is it an outright fraud by known con people with previous citations by the FCC.
grantcart
Oct 2012
#107