Last edited Wed Jul 8, 2020, 01:50 PM - Edit history (1)
16 million cases would make the lethality around 0.8%. The vast, vast majority (almost all in multiple nations) is in the oldest half of the population, and the vast majority above 45 to 50 years of age.
Here in Sweden, with basically no lock-down, no masks, most places still open, and the all the under-high school level schools never closed we have had one death under 20, and that was a 4 year old a couple months back with multiple comorbidities. Zero deaths in the school age cohort of 5 years old to 20yo, 8 deaths aged 20 to 29, and 16 deaths aged 30 to 39. That is a total of 25 deaths under 40 years of age (which is half the entire population). 25 deaths out of over 5 million people under 40 years of age. That is a rate of 1 death per 200,000. Under 50 years of age there have only been 69 total deaths. Almost 99% of the deaths here have been over 50 years of age, 96% over 60 years of age, 89% over 70 years of age. 68% were over 80yo, 26% of all COVID-19 deaths were over 90 tears of age.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
In the US, due to a lack of testing and asymptomatic, a very conservative number would be 6 million cases. at a 5% death rate that works out to 300,00, not the 130,000 it actually is. I think it is likely that at least 10 million people in the US have had it, making a mortality rate of around 1.3%, and that rate is massively skewed to the over 45yo cohorts (especially the over 55yo ones.) The US does have a very slightly higher death rate for the under 40yo, under 35yo cohorts than Sweden does, but that is easily explained as the average US citizen is more unhealthy and has poorer healthcare than an average Swede is and does.
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