R you kidding me? UMBC!

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Virginia struggles to score

I am a Canes season ticket holder so I see Virginia every year. It is a very tenacious defensive team but I've always believed if any type of team is vulnerable to a huge upset it is one that simply can't score. Last season Virginia collapsed late in the season due to the same problem. I think they were also upset in the first round. This year's team was not nearly as offensively challenged but it's not the type of issue you can completely overcome in one season.

Remember that Georgetown in 1989 nearly lost to Princeton for the same reason -- low scoring game and inability to score. It took a last second blocked shot to survive the upset.

Higher scoring top seeded teams have many more possessions, and therefore greater likelihood that the manpower advantage plays out.

Nate Silver had an article about this a year or so ago. Basically it was that the #16 seeds were overdue for a win, based on the mathematical odds. He was he wouldn't necessarily predict an upset within the next year or two but it definitely should happen within the next decade.

For reference purposes, Virginia was a 20.5 point favorite. I lived in Las Vegas and bet sports for 25 years. Normally the #1 seeds were favored between 28 and 36 points. I remember examples in the 40s, like Duke one season favored by 46 points in the opener.

Once the favoritism drops to 20 points, that is an entirely different realm of likelihood. It is not linear. The theoretical opportunity soars. It is more like a regular season game, which often feature spreads in the 20 range.

A 20 point favorite is more like the #2 seeds always used to be. Some of them have lost. In recent years there has been less imbalance and the #1 seeds are seldom favored by 30+ anymore.

BTW, I remember the women's game when Harvard upset Stanford as 16 seed. I watched it throughout. Stanford opened as 28.5 point favorite and was bet up to -31.