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onenote

(42,831 posts)
10. If you only look at poll results superficially, you come to the wrong conclusions
Wed Mar 14, 2018, 11:50 AM
Mar 2018

Last edited Wed Mar 14, 2018, 01:14 PM - Edit history (1)

Yes, there was a poll right before election day showing Lamb with a five or six point lead over Saccone. But look deeper.

The margin of error in the poll: 5.1 percent
The actual numbers: 51 percent to 45 percent, meaning roughly four percent undecided.
That poll assumed a higher than usual mid-term level of turnout, with a much smaller margin (2 points) if the turnout was lower (which it was).
From the same poll: Trump approval/disapproval: split evenly at 49 percent apiece.

So what does one learn looking at these poll numbers closely? That anyone who thought Lamb was going to win by five points or more was fooling themselves and that the final results are actually pretty much what folks should have been expecting.

If this election was actually being stolen by folks with the sophistication to do so without detection, why did they leave themselves short by a just few hundred votes?

I Agree. Nt Anon-C Mar 2018 #1
What do you think? Lamb maybe won by 3 or 4 points in reality? world wide wally Mar 2018 #2
I think so. nt Maven Mar 2018 #4
Not sure, do we have exit polls? I bet they dont do those anymore. Gee, wonder why. Eliot Rosewater Mar 2018 #6
Polls rely on models to make a best guess Hav Mar 2018 #3
Both sides make this argument all the time hueymahl Mar 2018 #5
Hell. Trump STILL believes that the PV was "rigged"/fraudulent Proud Liberal Dem Mar 2018 #13
He doesn't really believe that. He just says it. Hell, he... Whiskeytide Mar 2018 #23
I have been yelling since Nov 2016 jodymarie aimee Mar 2018 #7
I agree too RandomAccess Mar 2018 #8
We're hopeful in Pennsylvania, for other reasons FakeNoose Mar 2018 #9
+1 from not-in-Pennsylvania, but also with Eliot in that Hortensis Mar 2018 #15
The vote flipping only works in certain situations FakeNoose Mar 2018 #19
Interesting summary, thanks. Our Georgia system Hortensis Mar 2018 #22
If you only look at poll results superficially, you come to the wrong conclusions onenote Mar 2018 #10
Thank you for being informed on the subject mythology Mar 2018 #17
+1. Why try to "steal" an election, but come up less than 1K short? Not logical. Fred Sanders Mar 2018 #28
Didn't they start counting with a blue urban area Hortensis Mar 2018 #11
Why did they change their minds at the last minute and I am on NYT reading how they Eliot Rosewater Mar 2018 #12
I'm like you!! IF THEY CAN STEAL ELECTIONS THEY WILL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! bluestarone Mar 2018 #16
So they flipped enough to get withing a 500 votes and stopped? LexVegas Mar 2018 #14
Exactly. There's absolutely no proof at all that votes were flipped. bearsfootball516 Mar 2018 #18
The polls indicated he would win by 2. He won by .02. There is a margin of error. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2018 #20
100% agree!!! Johnny2X2X Mar 2018 #21
Only one poll showed him leading by 6, with a margin of error of 5. bearsfootball516 Mar 2018 #26
Those polls were from 2 weeks ago Johnny2X2X Mar 2018 #33
You sound like Trump, frankly HopeAgain Mar 2018 #24
So with no evidence you are yelling about vote flipping GulfCoast66 Mar 2018 #25
Eh, I think if you had that much control you wouldn't flip enough votes to barely lose. Mayberry Machiavelli Mar 2018 #27
Yeah but while you are switching vote counts or doing whatever you are doing it you are doing it Eliot Rosewater Mar 2018 #29
Kerry Won & Hillary Likely Did As Well SoCalMusicLover Mar 2018 #34
Nonsense karynnj Mar 2018 #30
Ever wonder why they dont even bother with exit polls anymore? Eliot Rosewater Mar 2018 #31
They rarely do exit polls for congressional elections nt karynnj Mar 2018 #32
I don't think votes were flipped in this case. Some of the polls were at 2% which Demsrule86 Mar 2018 #35
Could be right. Eliot Rosewater Mar 2018 #36
You could be right too...and we will have to be vigilant going forward. Demsrule86 Mar 2018 #37
one step that would help- everyone audit your own polling place. mopinko Mar 2018 #38
+1 Eliot Rosewater Mar 2018 #39
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