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Celerity
Celerity's Journal
Celerity's Journal
September 29, 2023
https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/2023-09-29-does-jay-powell-want-to-elect-trump/
The Federal Reserve is at risk of getting itself and the economy into a doom loop where its own actions create the inflation that the Fed supposedly is trying to extinguish and serve to kill the recovery. Exhibit A is mortgage costs. Mortgage interest rates have risen to a 23-year high of 7.31 percent, according to a survey released by mortgage purchaser Freddie Mac. And it isn’t just higher mortgage costs but more expensive car payments and credit card interest rates, as well as higher financing costs to homebuilders and small businesses. All of this increased inflation is the direct result of the Fed’s own policies.
Weirdly, higher interest rates are not counted in the Consumer Price Index. But they are certainly experienced as inflation by consumers and businesses. In addition, there are extraneous sources of price inflation that have nothing whatever to do with the supposed macroeconomic overheating that the Fed’s tight money is intended to squelch. Exhibit A is the rising price of crude oil, now approaching $100 a barrel, up from around $75 a barrel as recently as July. This shows up in higher consumer prices at the gas pump. But it’s not the result of increased motorist demand. It’s entirely the consequence of supply cuts by our enemy Vladimir Putin and our supposed new best friend, Saudi Arabia.
Exhibit B is the exorbitant prices charged by monopolists—that Biden’s all-of-government competition policies are challenging, including the two lawsuits by the Justice Department and the FTC against Google and Amazon. Again, this has nothing whatever to do with macroeconomic overheating. But these price hikes will douse a still-fragile recovery and will contribute to a softer economy in an election year, which will harm Biden and the Democrats. And that increase in measured “inflation” will give the Fed more ammunition to perversely keep money tight, destroying the economy’s soft landing and promoting 1970s style stagflation.
Where higher oil prices are concerned, Putin would surely prefer his pal Trump to President Biden. But what about the Saudis, who are part of an improbable partnership with Israel that Biden is helping to broker. Trump would surely be a lot more indulgent of Netanyahu than Biden. And what about Fed Chair Jay Powell, a Trump appointee whom Biden foolishly reappointed? There are enough variables in the coming election to make your head spin. But let’s not leave out the Fed, whose seats on the Board of Governors are now 4-to-3 Democrats; and Biden’s appointee Michael Barr, the vice chair for supervision, is increasingly a thorn in the side of Fed Chair Jay Powell. Would Powell prefer Trump? He is certainly behaving that way.
snip
Does Fed Chairman Jay Powell Want to Elect Trump?
https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/2023-09-29-does-jay-powell-want-to-elect-trump/
The Federal Reserve is at risk of getting itself and the economy into a doom loop where its own actions create the inflation that the Fed supposedly is trying to extinguish and serve to kill the recovery. Exhibit A is mortgage costs. Mortgage interest rates have risen to a 23-year high of 7.31 percent, according to a survey released by mortgage purchaser Freddie Mac. And it isn’t just higher mortgage costs but more expensive car payments and credit card interest rates, as well as higher financing costs to homebuilders and small businesses. All of this increased inflation is the direct result of the Fed’s own policies.
Weirdly, higher interest rates are not counted in the Consumer Price Index. But they are certainly experienced as inflation by consumers and businesses. In addition, there are extraneous sources of price inflation that have nothing whatever to do with the supposed macroeconomic overheating that the Fed’s tight money is intended to squelch. Exhibit A is the rising price of crude oil, now approaching $100 a barrel, up from around $75 a barrel as recently as July. This shows up in higher consumer prices at the gas pump. But it’s not the result of increased motorist demand. It’s entirely the consequence of supply cuts by our enemy Vladimir Putin and our supposed new best friend, Saudi Arabia.
Exhibit B is the exorbitant prices charged by monopolists—that Biden’s all-of-government competition policies are challenging, including the two lawsuits by the Justice Department and the FTC against Google and Amazon. Again, this has nothing whatever to do with macroeconomic overheating. But these price hikes will douse a still-fragile recovery and will contribute to a softer economy in an election year, which will harm Biden and the Democrats. And that increase in measured “inflation” will give the Fed more ammunition to perversely keep money tight, destroying the economy’s soft landing and promoting 1970s style stagflation.
Where higher oil prices are concerned, Putin would surely prefer his pal Trump to President Biden. But what about the Saudis, who are part of an improbable partnership with Israel that Biden is helping to broker. Trump would surely be a lot more indulgent of Netanyahu than Biden. And what about Fed Chair Jay Powell, a Trump appointee whom Biden foolishly reappointed? There are enough variables in the coming election to make your head spin. But let’s not leave out the Fed, whose seats on the Board of Governors are now 4-to-3 Democrats; and Biden’s appointee Michael Barr, the vice chair for supervision, is increasingly a thorn in the side of Fed Chair Jay Powell. Would Powell prefer Trump? He is certainly behaving that way.
snip
September 29, 2023
lololol....Jeff Tiedrich: hey, maybe Jasmine Crockett reads my substack
https://twitter.com/itsJeffTiedrich/status/1707506920607682585
September 29, 2023
https://www.reformaustin.org/trib/an-understaffed-and-broken-system-900000-texans-have-lost-medicaid-as-others-struggle-to-access-snap-benefits/
Almost 900,000 Texans have lost Medicaid since April and a backlog of applications has piled up, overwhelming the system and setting off a ripple effect that advocates worry is delaying families’ access to SNAP food benefits.
During the pandemic, federal regulations prohibited states from removing people from Medicaid, and more than 5 million Texans were able to access healthcare continuously. But these protections lifted in April and the state quickly began rechecking the eligibility of every individual in the program. In the months since the state launched this “unwinding,” hundreds of thousands have lost Medicaid coverage.
While some individuals have become ineligible because their incomes increased or they were children who aged out of the program, a majority — more than 600,000 — have been disenrolled in Texas because of procedural errors, according to KFF, a health policy research organization. This includes everything from sending in applications in the mail a day late to not including the correct documentation.
Without access to medical care, those who rely on the state’s health insurance — mainly children, but also women who recently gave birth and disabled adults — are left in anxious limbo where one health emergency could strap them with heavy debt. The reverberations of state employees being overwhelmed has led to Texans also losing access to their SNAP, or the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, after pandemic protections were lifted in March. Around 3.5 million Texans depend on food benefits.
snip
'An Understaffed and Broken System': 900,000 Texans Have Lost Medicaid as Others Struggle to Access
SNAP Benefitshttps://www.reformaustin.org/trib/an-understaffed-and-broken-system-900000-texans-have-lost-medicaid-as-others-struggle-to-access-snap-benefits/
Almost 900,000 Texans have lost Medicaid since April and a backlog of applications has piled up, overwhelming the system and setting off a ripple effect that advocates worry is delaying families’ access to SNAP food benefits.
During the pandemic, federal regulations prohibited states from removing people from Medicaid, and more than 5 million Texans were able to access healthcare continuously. But these protections lifted in April and the state quickly began rechecking the eligibility of every individual in the program. In the months since the state launched this “unwinding,” hundreds of thousands have lost Medicaid coverage.
While some individuals have become ineligible because their incomes increased or they were children who aged out of the program, a majority — more than 600,000 — have been disenrolled in Texas because of procedural errors, according to KFF, a health policy research organization. This includes everything from sending in applications in the mail a day late to not including the correct documentation.
Without access to medical care, those who rely on the state’s health insurance — mainly children, but also women who recently gave birth and disabled adults — are left in anxious limbo where one health emergency could strap them with heavy debt. The reverberations of state employees being overwhelmed has led to Texans also losing access to their SNAP, or the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, after pandemic protections were lifted in March. Around 3.5 million Texans depend on food benefits.
snip
September 29, 2023
With over 40 ads and $6 million spent, a group tied to the Club for Growth is no closer to an answer, a memo to donors says. Some ads even gave Donald Trump a boost.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/28/us/politics/anti-trump-ads-memo.html
https://archive.ph/E3J8Z
A well-funded group of anti-Trump conservatives has sent its donors a remarkably candid memo that reveals how resilient former President Donald J. Trump has been against millions of dollars of negative ads the group deployed against him in two early-voting states. The political action committee, called Win It Back, has close ties to the influential fiscally conservative group Club for Growth. It has already spent more than $4 million trying to lower Mr. Trump’s support among Republican voters in Iowa and nearly $2 million more trying to damage him in South Carolina.
But in the memo — dated Thursday and obtained by The New York Times — the head of Win It Back PAC, David McIntosh, acknowledges to donors that after extensive testing of more than 40 anti-Trump television ads, “all attempts to undermine his conservative credentials on specific issues were ineffective.” The memo will provide little reassurance to the rest of the field of Mr. Trump’s Republican rivals that there is any elusive message out there that can work to deflate his support.
“Even when you show video to Republican primary voters — with complete context — of President Trump saying something otherwise objectionable to primary voters, they find a way to rationalize and dismiss it,” Mr. McIntosh states in the “key learnings” section of the memo. “Every traditional postproduction ad attacking President Trump either backfired or produced no impact on his ballot support and favorability,” Mr. McIntosh adds. “This includes ads that primarily feature video of him saying liberal or stupid comments from his own mouth.”
For the polling underpinning its analysis, Win It Back used WPA Intelligence — a firm that also works for the super PAC supporting Mr. Trump’s chief rival in the race for the presidential nomination, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida. Examples of “failed” ads cited in the memo included attacks on Mr. Trump’s “handling of the pandemic, promotion of vaccines, praise of Dr. Fauci, insane government spending, failure to build the wall, recent attacks on pro-life legislation, refusal to fight woke issues, openness to gun control, and many others.” (Dr. Anthony S. Fauci led the national response to the Covid pandemic.)
snip
Republican Group Running Anti-Trump Ads Finds Little Is Working
With over 40 ads and $6 million spent, a group tied to the Club for Growth is no closer to an answer, a memo to donors says. Some ads even gave Donald Trump a boost.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/28/us/politics/anti-trump-ads-memo.html
https://archive.ph/E3J8Z
A well-funded group of anti-Trump conservatives has sent its donors a remarkably candid memo that reveals how resilient former President Donald J. Trump has been against millions of dollars of negative ads the group deployed against him in two early-voting states. The political action committee, called Win It Back, has close ties to the influential fiscally conservative group Club for Growth. It has already spent more than $4 million trying to lower Mr. Trump’s support among Republican voters in Iowa and nearly $2 million more trying to damage him in South Carolina.
But in the memo — dated Thursday and obtained by The New York Times — the head of Win It Back PAC, David McIntosh, acknowledges to donors that after extensive testing of more than 40 anti-Trump television ads, “all attempts to undermine his conservative credentials on specific issues were ineffective.” The memo will provide little reassurance to the rest of the field of Mr. Trump’s Republican rivals that there is any elusive message out there that can work to deflate his support.
“Even when you show video to Republican primary voters — with complete context — of President Trump saying something otherwise objectionable to primary voters, they find a way to rationalize and dismiss it,” Mr. McIntosh states in the “key learnings” section of the memo. “Every traditional postproduction ad attacking President Trump either backfired or produced no impact on his ballot support and favorability,” Mr. McIntosh adds. “This includes ads that primarily feature video of him saying liberal or stupid comments from his own mouth.”
For the polling underpinning its analysis, Win It Back used WPA Intelligence — a firm that also works for the super PAC supporting Mr. Trump’s chief rival in the race for the presidential nomination, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida. Examples of “failed” ads cited in the memo included attacks on Mr. Trump’s “handling of the pandemic, promotion of vaccines, praise of Dr. Fauci, insane government spending, failure to build the wall, recent attacks on pro-life legislation, refusal to fight woke issues, openness to gun control, and many others.” (Dr. Anthony S. Fauci led the national response to the Covid pandemic.)
snip
September 29, 2023
AOC on MSNBC: "It really cannot be understated how deceptive that was -- to take critical messages out of context, to tear apart the context that they're in, and then to photoshop a text message bubble ... and this is supposed to be the Republican case for impeachment?"
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1707568608866447777
snapshot
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1707029129025999324
snapshot
AOC: The Republican impeachment hearing today was so bad I think they asked ChatGPT to write their
questions with no fact checksAOC on MSNBC: "It really cannot be understated how deceptive that was -- to take critical messages out of context, to tear apart the context that they're in, and then to photoshop a text message bubble ... and this is supposed to be the Republican case for impeachment?"
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1707568608866447777
snapshot
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1707029129025999324
snapshot
September 28, 2023
Label: PiL Official – PiL009C, PiL Official – PiL009LP
Format: 2 x Vinyl, 12", 45 RPM, Album, Stereo, Neon Green
Country: UK
Released: 11 Aug 2023
Genre: Rock
Style: Post-Punk, Experimental, Alternative Rock, New Wave
Public Image Ltd. - End of World (Full Album) 2023
Label: PiL Official – PiL009C, PiL Official – PiL009LP
Format: 2 x Vinyl, 12", 45 RPM, Album, Stereo, Neon Green
Country: UK
Released: 11 Aug 2023
Genre: Rock
Style: Post-Punk, Experimental, Alternative Rock, New Wave
September 28, 2023
https://prospect.org/labor/2023-09-28-union-of-their-own-flight-attendants/
The first thing to appreciate about the Association of Flight Attendants (AFA) is that it was born feminist. Its feminism and its militance have nourished each other. The second thing to appreciate is that AFA is among the most democratic of American unions. Every officer comes from the ranks of working flight attendants, so there is no gap between the lived experience of the rank and file and the union bureaucracy.
“The people who are representing you are people who work your same job, at your same airline, at your same base, and they understand directly what the job is,” says Sara Nelson, who has served as AFA president since 2014. “It also means you can also hold your leaders directly accountable.”
Nelson, 50, is among the most charismatic and admired of union leaders, even though AFA, with just under 50,000 members at 19 different airlines, is a relatively small union. After the death of AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka in 2021, Nelson seriously considered running to succeed him, but ultimately decided against it. (The labor federation is now headed by Liz Shuler, its former secretary-treasurer.)
The union is widely admired (or feared, depending on your viewpoint) for the ingenuity and sheer nerve of its tactics. One technique, which AFA has literally trademarked, is called CHAOS, which stands for “Creating Havoc Around Our System.” CHAOS involves having a small number of flight attendants walk off the job just as a flight is boarding, with no advance notice to management. Unlike a conventional strike involving all workers, where management can wear down a union whose strike fund goes only so far, CHAOS disruptions involve only a few workers and hit management where it is most vulnerable.
snip
How a culture of gross sexism in the airlines created America's most militantly feminist union
A Union of Their Ownhttps://prospect.org/labor/2023-09-28-union-of-their-own-flight-attendants/
The first thing to appreciate about the Association of Flight Attendants (AFA) is that it was born feminist. Its feminism and its militance have nourished each other. The second thing to appreciate is that AFA is among the most democratic of American unions. Every officer comes from the ranks of working flight attendants, so there is no gap between the lived experience of the rank and file and the union bureaucracy.
“The people who are representing you are people who work your same job, at your same airline, at your same base, and they understand directly what the job is,” says Sara Nelson, who has served as AFA president since 2014. “It also means you can also hold your leaders directly accountable.”
Nelson, 50, is among the most charismatic and admired of union leaders, even though AFA, with just under 50,000 members at 19 different airlines, is a relatively small union. After the death of AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka in 2021, Nelson seriously considered running to succeed him, but ultimately decided against it. (The labor federation is now headed by Liz Shuler, its former secretary-treasurer.)
The union is widely admired (or feared, depending on your viewpoint) for the ingenuity and sheer nerve of its tactics. One technique, which AFA has literally trademarked, is called CHAOS, which stands for “Creating Havoc Around Our System.” CHAOS involves having a small number of flight attendants walk off the job just as a flight is boarding, with no advance notice to management. Unlike a conventional strike involving all workers, where management can wear down a union whose strike fund goes only so far, CHAOS disruptions involve only a few workers and hit management where it is most vulnerable.
snip
September 28, 2023
Australian studio Kennedy Nolan has completed Leftfield, an affordable housing block with a "playful" form of pigmented precast concrete panels in the Brunswick neighbourhood of Melbourne. Part of the Nightingale Village development, the block by Kennedy Nolan is an example of a typology created under the Nightingale development model, which aims to design residential projects that are "environmentally, socially and financially sustainable". The entire village has been longlisted in the Housing project category of the Dezeen Awards.
Acting as a developer for the project, Kennedy Nolan aimed to imbue its building of 28 homes with "personality" to give it a welcoming presence in the urban block in which it sits. "Our methodology always looks to do more with less," said studio founder Patrick Kennedy. "This meant identifying fundamental parts of the building and thinking about ways to manipulate or deploy them to make our Nightingale feel domestic, warm, textural and particular."
Located in an urban block adjacent to a railway line and surrounded by industrial warehouses to the south, single family homes to the west, and larger apartment and office blocks to the north and east, the project is prominently positioned and is visible across Brunswick. Large-scale geometric compositions of oculi on the building's western facade create a generous "urban-scale gesture" to the surrounding neighbourhood, according to the studio.
The warm tint of the ochre precast concrete panels used on the building's facades glows in the afternoon sun, while the inlaid chevron pattern provides texture and contributes to its pictorial imagery. "We were motivated to make the building sober, handsome and warm - qualities which are domestic or which can instil domestic pride," explained Kennedy.
snip
Ochre-tinted precast concrete forms Nightingale housing by Kennedy Nolan
https://www.dezeen.com/2023/09/22/ochre-precast-concrete-nightingale-housing-kennedy-nolan-australia/Australian studio Kennedy Nolan has completed Leftfield, an affordable housing block with a "playful" form of pigmented precast concrete panels in the Brunswick neighbourhood of Melbourne. Part of the Nightingale Village development, the block by Kennedy Nolan is an example of a typology created under the Nightingale development model, which aims to design residential projects that are "environmentally, socially and financially sustainable". The entire village has been longlisted in the Housing project category of the Dezeen Awards.
Acting as a developer for the project, Kennedy Nolan aimed to imbue its building of 28 homes with "personality" to give it a welcoming presence in the urban block in which it sits. "Our methodology always looks to do more with less," said studio founder Patrick Kennedy. "This meant identifying fundamental parts of the building and thinking about ways to manipulate or deploy them to make our Nightingale feel domestic, warm, textural and particular."
Located in an urban block adjacent to a railway line and surrounded by industrial warehouses to the south, single family homes to the west, and larger apartment and office blocks to the north and east, the project is prominently positioned and is visible across Brunswick. Large-scale geometric compositions of oculi on the building's western facade create a generous "urban-scale gesture" to the surrounding neighbourhood, according to the studio.
The warm tint of the ochre precast concrete panels used on the building's facades glows in the afternoon sun, while the inlaid chevron pattern provides texture and contributes to its pictorial imagery. "We were motivated to make the building sober, handsome and warm - qualities which are domestic or which can instil domestic pride," explained Kennedy.
snip
September 28, 2023
A network of cubic concrete volumes and staircases forms Up to the Sea, a blocky family home that Indian studio Matharoo Associates has added to the coastal town of Dumas, India. Nestled into a grassy site near the coast, the home sits on a stone base and was designed to merge traditional Indian design with modern architecture. The multi-generational home features accommodation for four generations of the client's family, as well as communal spaces that surround a central light-filled stairwell.
Comprising concrete blocks arranged to frame views of the surrounding landscape and nearby sea, the house wraps around a central void illuminated by a skylight. Informed by ancient Indian stairwells, the void features a series of linear staircases bordered by reflective balustrades, which wrap around the edges of the stairwell and connect to balconies on each level.
Around the stairwell, Matharoo Associates arranged a series of private living spaces to house the four generations of the family. Aiming to give each family member a private space, the studio divided the levels into separate suites, while using the staircase to maintain a degree of connection throughout the house.
“Four generations spread across eighty years each have their own set of demands, so they were given their own private domains while remaining connected,” architect Simran Goyal told Dezeen. The first floor contains a guest suite for the client's daughter and her family, while the second floor features two separate areas, including a main couple suite as well as a space for the family's son and his family.
snip
Matharoo Associates wraps concrete home around light-filled stairwell in Dumas, India
https://www.dezeen.com/2023/09/21/matharoo-associates-up-to-the-sea-concrete-home-india-residential/A network of cubic concrete volumes and staircases forms Up to the Sea, a blocky family home that Indian studio Matharoo Associates has added to the coastal town of Dumas, India. Nestled into a grassy site near the coast, the home sits on a stone base and was designed to merge traditional Indian design with modern architecture. The multi-generational home features accommodation for four generations of the client's family, as well as communal spaces that surround a central light-filled stairwell.
Comprising concrete blocks arranged to frame views of the surrounding landscape and nearby sea, the house wraps around a central void illuminated by a skylight. Informed by ancient Indian stairwells, the void features a series of linear staircases bordered by reflective balustrades, which wrap around the edges of the stairwell and connect to balconies on each level.
Around the stairwell, Matharoo Associates arranged a series of private living spaces to house the four generations of the family. Aiming to give each family member a private space, the studio divided the levels into separate suites, while using the staircase to maintain a degree of connection throughout the house.
“Four generations spread across eighty years each have their own set of demands, so they were given their own private domains while remaining connected,” architect Simran Goyal told Dezeen. The first floor contains a guest suite for the client's daughter and her family, while the second floor features two separate areas, including a main couple suite as well as a space for the family's son and his family.
snip
September 28, 2023
Architecture practice Studio Bright used patterned breeze blocks to wrap Garden Tower House, an extension in Australia, which peeks out from behind the restored frontage of a workers' cottage. Located in the Melbourne suburb of Cremorne, the project was a response to "unsustainable sprawl" in the area, looking to maximise the awkward, narrow site of the existing home rather than expanding outwards.
"The challenge in Australia for our cities to become more sustainable is that they need to work harder for us – we need to increase the density," said Studio Bright director Melissa Bright. "We don't see this as a negative; we wonder how we might live closer together and get more from it," she told Dezeen.
"Often disused laneways are seen as security problems – we see them as an opportunity, for a borrowed backyard, for a place to connect with neighbours and for a new address and frontage," added Bright. "Even these small spaces can be seen as small urban 'places' that we can enliven with activation and care."
The extension comprises two blocks that step down slightly at the rear of the existing home, containing a large living, dining and kitchen space that wraps a central garden. In the larger "tower" volume, an upper storey contains a bedroom with a large, deep-set window overlooking the central garden.
snip
Studio Bright wraps extension in Melbourne, Australia with pale pink breeze blocks
https://www.dezeen.com/2023/09/24/studio-bright-garden-tower-house-extension-australia/Architecture practice Studio Bright used patterned breeze blocks to wrap Garden Tower House, an extension in Australia, which peeks out from behind the restored frontage of a workers' cottage. Located in the Melbourne suburb of Cremorne, the project was a response to "unsustainable sprawl" in the area, looking to maximise the awkward, narrow site of the existing home rather than expanding outwards.
"The challenge in Australia for our cities to become more sustainable is that they need to work harder for us – we need to increase the density," said Studio Bright director Melissa Bright. "We don't see this as a negative; we wonder how we might live closer together and get more from it," she told Dezeen.
"Often disused laneways are seen as security problems – we see them as an opportunity, for a borrowed backyard, for a place to connect with neighbours and for a new address and frontage," added Bright. "Even these small spaces can be seen as small urban 'places' that we can enliven with activation and care."
The extension comprises two blocks that step down slightly at the rear of the existing home, containing a large living, dining and kitchen space that wraps a central garden. In the larger "tower" volume, an upper storey contains a bedroom with a large, deep-set window overlooking the central garden.
snip
Profile Information
Gender: FemaleHometown: London
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Current location: Stockholm, Sweden
Member since: Sun Jul 1, 2018, 07:25 PM
Number of posts: 43,346
