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grantcart

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Member since: Sat Jan 5, 2008, 08:45 PM
Number of posts: 49,900

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Is this the worse gerrymandering map in history?

(tks to Demconwatchblog.com for the link)

I didn't think that this was possible anymore but this is the proposed map for CD in PA

http://blog.pjvoice.com/diary/1669/the-breathtakingly-brazen-pennsylvania-congressional-redistricting-plan





they don't even bother having the extended sections touch each other:


?643

Ain't 'democracy' grand?

Are they starting a whispering campaign for a 'draft Daniels' campaign?

Personally I want them to nominate any one of these idiots - otherwise known as announced candidates - for President.

The Republicans changed the rules so that with 27 proportional primaries before April 1 it will all but guarantee that the primary competition will go to the convention. The more fractured the first four primaries are the more likely that no one will get enough delegates to reach the magical 1145 delegates necessary to secure the nomination.

Two previous threads on the subject:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023695

http://www.democraticunderground.com/100215205



If you were to wipe the slate clean and start over who would you choose?

I would choose Daniels/McDonnell Governors of Indiana and Virginia, two states essential for a Republican victory.

The main obstacle is 'springing' it on the delegates. So you would have to start a whispering campaign and build support in the grassroots.

Has it begun?

You would want to:

a) go to the heart of the presumptive nominee and get some critical support and start the whispering
b) start the pundits talking about it and then
c) start throwing out some red meat issues that will attract the Tea Party/Right Wing section of the party.

And that is exactly what is happening;

Last month Michigan GOP has a major fundraiser and invites Daniels to speak;

http://www.mackinac.org/15695

Cue the Whisperer, and I love this part of it, the guy who starts the whispering, sits in the office that Romney's dad used to have, Governor of Michigan and that state where Mitt Romney was raised;




http://bloggingformichigan.com/2011/11/21/michigan-governor-rick-snyder-disses-current-gop-candidates-for-president/

What does Governor Snyder (now remember this is the guy who occupies the office that Romney's father now holds) say?



"But when people were talking about people that should run for president, Gov. Daniels … really would have been an outstanding candidate. Again, I’ll be blunt, compared with some of the people running today, (he would have been) head and shoulders above them."





Cue the pundits (three days ago):



The Hill

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/199889-the-winners-of-the-republican-debates-mitch-daniels-and-barack-obama

We have seen enough of the Republican debates to render a verdict: the big winner of the Republican debates is President Obama, because not one of the GOP candidates can both appeal to a majority of Republicans, and be seen by the general electorate as credible.

The second winner is Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana, who may still be called to duty in the Republican campaign.


The political collapse of Newt Gingrich has now begun. He will either self-destruct before the convention, which is most likely, or during the general-election campaign, leading to a gigantic landslide for Obama. Where I have disagreed with almost all political analysts from the beginning is that first, I have always believed that Ron Paul will be, at least, one of three finalists and second, the various Republican fly-by-night front-runners were always destined to crash.



I predicted Daniels a year ago. I don't believe that any of the current candidates are going to get 51% of the delegates. If Pawlenty had stayed in the situation might have been different but it looks like Romney is going to lose to Paul in IA.

As other campaigns have imploded ROMNEY HAS FAILED TO PICK UP A SINGLE POINT IN IA OR NH. In fact in NH after Cain and Gingrich imploded Romneys' numbers went down and not up.

If they are preparing for a Daniels draft then Daniels will need to start throwing out some red meat for the Tea Party/John Birch/Nut Job wing of the party.

Now what are the traditional issues that get their blood pressure up? Well flag burning of course, but then the other old stand by - right to work.

Right on time cue Daniels and a sudden change to support right to work legislation, now given events in Wisconsin and Ohio, given OWS actions you wouldn't expect a smart politician to jump on that fire. In fact Daniels recent book he was 'scornful' of right to work advocates;


Cue the policy change (4 days ago):



http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-ap-in-indiana-daniels-r,0,6318060.story

INDIANAPOLIS— Gov. Mitch Daniels said Thursday he will support a "right-to-work" measure in his final legislative session as governor.

Daniels has all but said over the last few months that he wants to make Indiana the 23rd state to ban businesses and unions from requiring workers to pay union dues or other labor fees. Thursday he made his support official.

"After a year of study and reflection, I have come to agree that it is time for Indiana to join the 22 states which have enacted right to work laws," Daniels said in a statement Thursday.


Opponents and supporters of the issue have clamored to claim public support for their side. But a poll released earlier in the day by Ball State University showed Hoosier's are largely undecided on the issue. Of 607 Hoosiers polled in November, 48 percent said they were undecided, 27 percent said they support the measure and 24 percent said they oppose it. The poll carries a 4.4 percent margin of error.

Daniels' new support for the measure marks an evolution of sorts. Earlier this year he asked lawmakers to postpone debate on the issue, lest it derail his attempts to pass sweeping education legislation amid the national glare of presidential speculation. In his recently-released book, Daniels was scornful of "right-to-work" advocates.




I know, I know its impossible, never going to happen.

And yet it seems that all of this impossible not going to happen stuff is right on cue and right on script.

Just sayin'.

Best post yet on DU3

Why the UnRec feature does not work and should not be brought back.


1) While a rec has a very specific articulated and discreet meaning the unrec is not specific, not articulate and ambigious.

If your Rec a post you like the opinion stated, the voice that was used, the tenor of the argument, the logic and the conclusions.

If you UnRec a post you might do it for any of the following reasons.

1) Don't agree with the basic opinion
2) Agree/disagree with the opinion but disagree with how it was expressed.
3) Agree/disagree with the opinion but disagree with how objective/emotional it was expressed.
4) Agree/disagree with the opinion but disagree with the logic that was used.

In addition you might disagree because
5) It is the 7th time this poster has posted a similar post and you are fed up with spamming on the subject.


so the unrec is a completely inarticulate instrument.

But it is more destructive than that because it is, obviously, entirely negative. One of the better things about DU is that you can disagree with somebody on 7 subjects but cross the line when you agree with them on the 8th. The unrec feature doesn't encourage that. Rather it fosters an attempt to keep track of who has 'pissed on your parade' so that you can unrec in return.

Finally the unrec is the most easily abused by trolls at DU.

Imagine somebody starts a thread "I am disappointed by Obama". These threads usually reflect disappointment that the President hasn't gone far enough on our left (socialist/collectivist) policy side. It allows trolls to unrec even though they don't share that opinion. They are able to distort DU opinion without accountability.

There is nothing in the unrec feature that fosters a sense of community at DU and it should not be returned.

"Welcome Home, Welcome Home, Welcome Home"

Currently watching the President start his welcome home to troops at Fort Bragg with these words.

If you have a chance watch the clip, it will cheer you up.

He had some funny comments about the first lady and I am guessing that the President is going to get lucky tonight.

"Guys your duty is to marry up, punch above your weight",

But hearing this President say 'Welcome Home' I also thought of how far he has brought us from the embarassment of George Bush.

When Ronald Reagan was President and I was living overseas if I met somebody casually and they would bring him up I would simply say, "I don't really understand those guys, I am Canadian."

This President allows us to come home. Not American exceptionalists but we don't have to be completely embarassed by being an American because who the President is, and in that way we can all come home metaphorically.

When I meet someone at a Denny's who wants to rant against the President I let them go on for a while and then I ask them a single question, "What current leader in the world do you think does a better job than President Obama?" Then I ask who in the last 20 years was a better world leader, including US Presidents. Silence. "So you agree with me that he is the best world leader who has been on the world stage in the last 20 years?, I agree with that too."

Now with the changes in DU3 people are allowed to have more say in shaping their particular group so that people with common interests can get together and share with people who they know share the same frame of reference. Its kind of a refuge for those of us that engage a lot of right wing fanatics. It allows us to share a common agenda with progressives that are more ambigious about the President but with whom we share large areas of agreement.

That's kind of like a home. You go there for protection against your enemies. You don't agree 100% with everyone else who lives there. So the BO(G) is starting to feel as a good political home for those of us who like and support this President and want to support him as he brings more progressive change to this country.

Welcome Home.

Romney is finished

I never thought that Romney had a chance for the nomination.

The Evangelical base would overlook any other fault in order not to have to support a Mormon.

From an establishment point of view he is damaged goods. Knowing the way they think their logic is that McCain was a terrible compaigner and he wiped Romney.

This time around Romney is not using tens of millions of personal dollars and while he has raised a lot of money most of it is from donors that have given the maximum.

That $ 10k bet misstep wasn't an ordinary misstep. It killed any possibility of him raising small donations.

Romney needs not just a win in NH but a commanding win because he foolishly moved there thinking that it would help him seal the deal. Not only didn't it add any support for him but in undermines his performance. If he wins it means little because it is his 'home' state. If he loses there they will say 'he can't win anywhere'.

One month ago Romney had a 27 point lead
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/22/nh-2012-primary-41-romney_n_1107372.html

2012 President: Republican Primary
41% Romney
14% Gingrich
14% Paul
9% Huntsman
8% Cain
3% Santorum
2% Perry
1% Bachmann
1% Karger
1% Roemer


Today Romney has a 10 point lead

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/13/nh-2012-primary-33-romney_n_1146278.html

2012 President: Republican Primary
33% Romney
22% Gingrich
18% Paul
10% Huntsman
3% Perry
3% Bachmann
3% Santorum


But a closer look at the numbers is even worse for Romney.

Between the two polls (and there are others that confirm today's results) Cain left the race freeing up 8% to be split among the other candidates.

Romney not only didn't pick up any support he lost some. While Gingrich picked up a lot, Paul picked up some (and all of the others picked up a little) Romney is the only one to have lost support.

One in five Romney supporters has left him in the last month.

And it gets worse.

The latest IA poll shows Romney in a weak third showing


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/13/ia-2012-primary-22-gingri_n_1146421.html

2012 President: Republican Primary
22% Gingrich
21% Paul
16% Romney
11% Bachmann
9% Perry
8% Santorum
5% Huntsman
1% Johnson

Right now he is only 5 points from 4th place and ONLY 8 POINTS AWAY FROM 6TH PLACE.

No one has more pressure on him on the next debate, and we all know how well he does under pressure!.

All of this hasn't gone unnoticed on Intrade where Romney shares on the nomination have lost 40% of the value in the last 4 weeks falling from a high of 70 to 40.

All of this is looking very grim for Romney because if he comes in a weak third or worse in Iowa his main message of "electability" will evaporate in NH and his campaign will collapse.

If you thought it was a zoo before, after NH the inmates will be taking over the asylum, in any case Cain's departure from the field showed that Romney has hit a very low and hard ceiling, that as people change their mind they don't choose him and some of the people that did choose him before are changing their mind.

As I have noted elsewhere all of this reinforces the liklihood of an open convention and a new set of candidates drafted from the floor, i.e. some Republican Governor.

Link to DU2 journal

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/grantcart

So far the President has handled the re-election start with skill.

He is giving them all the rope to act crazy, but when they start to try and tag him as weak, like they did Kerry, he unloaded on them with the "check with bin Laden" line. They could also ask Ghaddafi as well.

I, for one, don't think that any of these clowns are going to be the nominee.

Here is where I make the case for a brokered convention.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023695

1) Romney is not going to be the nominee.

Its not just that he has hit a ceiling, anyone who was going to be for Romney has already signed on. Its that even those that support him don't have a deep affection for him.

Romney went to Utah to boost Bennett's nomination. Bennett doesn't even get on the ballot and the Republicans IN UTAH BOOED ROMNEY ROUNDLY. If the Mormons in Utah boo him who in the party loves him? No one.

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=10699757

2) Gingrich

This is the guy who said that Social Security should "wither and die"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024757


Let the Republicans race to be the stupidest, act Presidential and prepare for a new candidate at the convention.

18 reasons why Newt Gingrich will never become the nominee - by New Gingrich

18 Newt Gingrich quotes that will disqualify him from ever being President.



http://www.sodahead.com/united-states/18-newt-gingrich-quotes-that-disqualify-him-from-ever-being-president/question-2305873/

This one quote will cost him Florida and a bunch of ther states:

Social Security "get rid of it (by letting it) wither on the vine"

“Now, we don’t get rid of it in round one because we don’t think that that’s politically smart, and we don’t think that’s the right way to go through a transition. But we believe it’s going to wither on the vine because we think people are voluntarily going to leave it — voluntarily.

or then there are these

12 “She isn’t young enough or pretty enough to be the President’s wife.”
~Newt Gingrich, talking about his first wife after divorcing her.

13. “I read Men Who Hate Women and the Women Who Love Them and I found frightening pieces that related to…my own life.”

~Newt Gingrich, talking about his problems with women.



<BTW the ad next to this blog was for Zales when I clicked on it, lol>

Nate Silver: Romney's $ 10,000 bet offer triggers sell of on Intrade

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/11/after-10000-offer-some-bet-against-romney/


Within 4 hours of the offer of a bet Romney's Intrade price loses 10% of its value while Gingrich goes up 10%.

Here is Silver


Saturday night’s debate will probably be best remembered for Mitt Romney offering a $10,000 bet to Gov. Rick Perry of Texas. Mr. Perry was wise to decline the wager, which concerned the language that Mr. Romney used to describe his support for a health insurance mandate in his book.

But bettors at Intrade, the political futures market, are betting against Mr. Romney.

I checked the share prices for the seven major Republican contenders at 8:59 p.m. on Saturday, just before the debate began. Those prices represent estimates of the likelihood that the candidates will win their party’s nomination. At that point, Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the nomination were attributed to be 47.2 percent. They had declined to 44.4 percent, however, as of 12:27 a.m. on Sunday. Meanwhile, the share price for Newt Gingrich, who had a strong evening, rose significantly.
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