Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumDU Primaries Report, April 2019: Let's Get This Party Started!
We've been keeping a log of the candidates' support on DU since March 22. The numbers are logged on Mondays and Fridays, and we plan to provide an update on the last Monday or Friday of the month. That's today! So here's the first update.
How the Candidate Rankings board works
First, since we haven't actually explained the inner workings of the Candidate Rankings board, here's a quick primer:
- Displayed percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number, so a candidate displayed at (for example) 10% will have an actual percentage in the range of 9.50% to 10.49%.
- The exception to this is candidates below 0.5% -- they are still displayed at 1% (to indicate that they have at least some support on DU). FWIW, there are currently no candidates with zero supporters.
- If two candidates' whole number percentages are equal, the one with the higher actual percentage will be displayed first.
By logging the candidates' support twice a week, we can create graphs of how their support has changed over time. Although we are logging and graphing all the candidates, for clarity in this report we've decided to only include candidates who are polling at more than 1% actual support. Currently, there are eight candidates who fit that criteria. They are (in alphabetical order): Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Jay Inslee, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O'Rourke, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.
Candidates above 1% actual support, including Undecided
Here you can see how Undecided supporters are slowly coming off the fence over the month of April. Undecided started at 48.42% on March 22, and has declined to 40.69% by today. Of note is that whenever candidates have experienced a bump in support for whatever reason, the bump has mostly drawn from Undecideds coming off the fence, as opposed to DUers switching support from one candidate to another.
Candidates above 1% actual support, excluding Undecided
By removing Undecided from the graph, we get a clearer picture of how the top candidates have moved over time.
Inslee, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, and Sanders have remained quite stable over the month of April. Inslee began the month at 2.48% and ends it at 2.00%. Klobuchar began at 1.15% and ends at 1.00%. O'Rourke began at 3.51% and ends at 2.78%, and Sanders began at 7.8% and ends at 7.96%.
Of those four candidates, O'Rourke has suffered the largest decline in support, starting strong when he announced his candidacy, but his share of support has been slowly bleeding week after week since then as new supporters have not been flocking to his cause. Meanwhile Sanders is the only candidate of the four to have increased his percentage over the month of April.
The other four candidates have seen a lot more movement. Harris was the number one candidate on DU for a long time, but her percentage of support has steadily declined since day one, as other candidates have come into the mix. She began April at 13.97%, and has now declined to 10.59%, although it's worth noting that she held onto the number one spot all the way up until last week, when she was finally overtaken by Joe Biden.
The current number one candidate, Joe Biden, has seen two significant bumps in support. The first came near the beginning of April as the media focused on stories alleging that he touched people inappropriately. The backlash to this reporting gave Biden a boost on DU and he increased his support from 8.32% on April 1 to 10.21% on April 8. His second, larger bump came over the past week when he officially announced his candidacy. That has pushed Biden up into first place with a significant jump from 9.54% on April 21 to 13.25% on April 29.
Pete Buttigieg saw the greatest overall increase in support since March 22, beginning at 3.82% and rocketing all the way up to 11.57% on April 19 as he began to garner national attention. (Buttigieg did draw some support from Biden between April 12 and April 19 as Biden's "backlash bump" faded slightly.) But does Mayor Pete have staying power? Since topping out at 11.57% and reaching second place in the rankings, Buttigieg has declined to 9.44% today and could be overtaken by Elizabeth Warren for third place at any moment.
Speaking of Warren, she appeared to be trending along the same lines as Inslee, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, and Sanders, only climbing from 5.83% on March 22 to 6.29% on April 19. But she has seen a spectacular rise since then, climbing three points to 9.29% today. We suspect that this increase in support on DU was due to her becoming the first candidate to officially call for Trump's impeachment following the Mueller report.
So that's where we stand so far. Obviously none of this is particularly scientific and it's not meant to replace or compete with actual real polls being done out there in the real world, but we do think it's been really interesting to track how DUers' preferences are changing over time. We'll be doing this again at the end of each month as long as the primaries are going on. Thanks for reading!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
seaglass
(8,173 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
hlthe2b
(102,342 posts)ie., the total number DUers registering a preference (including undecided)?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laelth
(32,017 posts)-Laelth
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
FailureToCommunicate
(14,020 posts)Thanks!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)That will help people visualize what's going on better.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LakeArenal
(28,837 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Like we are finally getting closer to the whole party. This is actually a very good sign.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ismnotwasm
(41,998 posts)Glad to see her rise.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JudyM
(29,265 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Initech
(100,099 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CaliforniaPeggy
(149,681 posts)I look forward to seeing how the totals change over time.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Uncle Joe
(58,403 posts)Thanks for sharing EarlG.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Crowman2009
(2,499 posts)I want some details about everybodys policy goals.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hekate
(90,773 posts)...at this time. I am prepared to be corrected, however.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
PatrickforO
(14,586 posts)I'm interested to see Mayor Pete's staying power, as well.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
spicysista
(1,663 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to EarlG (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
WheelWalker
(8,955 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hekate
(90,773 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BigmanPigman
(51,623 posts)Very interesting that Biden went up AFTER it was reported that he touched people inappropriately....
"near the beginning of April as the media focused on stories alleging that he touched people inappropriately. The backlash to this reporting gave Biden a boost on DU and he increased his support from 8.32% on April 1 to 10.21% on April 8."
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)a bit "funny" with his charts...something about him lately bothers me...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
alfredo
(60,075 posts)I was surprised that Sanders support is flat. Is he not gathering people to his cause?
Warren surprised me. Shes tough and smart.
Hated to see Harriss numbers dropping. I guess if we win, and Harris isnt pres or veep, I want her as AG.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cstanleytech
(26,317 posts)after he failed to secure the nomination in the last election.
Had he not done that then his support would probably be greater among more Democrats.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oldsoftie
(12,586 posts)I didnt realize he had gone back to "I"
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cstanleytech
(26,317 posts)was forced to leave by the party.
Now he has to deal with the consequences.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oldsoftie
(12,586 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)....as an Independent even before the Convention.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oldsoftie
(12,586 posts)The party cant say "thanks but no thanks"?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
alfredo
(60,075 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cstanleytech
(26,317 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,314 posts)because they're destined to form a ticket???
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
cstanleytech
(26,317 posts)who wins I intend to fully support the winner and vote for them because just about any Democrat is better than Trump.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oldsoftie
(12,586 posts)After all, you can always change later if you want
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
GemDigger
(4,305 posts)up over something you have absolutely no control over. Pay close attention, absolutely. Have a favorite, most likely. Get the hopes up, very cautiously.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oldsoftie
(12,586 posts)Seems like everyone would pick SOMEONE if the primary was really held today!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
GemDigger
(4,305 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cstanleytech
(26,317 posts)earned my vote thus the only thing that really matters is kicking the asshole that is defecating all over the oval office to the curb.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
chia
(2,244 posts)Very interesting reading!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,314 posts)if you're looking for the picture of consistency, vote Amy Klobuchar!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,314 posts)Always aiming to Quackers you up!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JudyM
(29,265 posts)Thanks for the concise, informative rundown.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Skittles
(153,178 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)and recalculate the percentages?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
EarlG
(21,964 posts)This was the top 8 with Undecideds completely excluded and percentages recalculated, as of Monday:
1) Joe Biden: 22.35%
2) Kamala Harris: 17.85%
3) Pete Buttigieg: 15.92%
4) Elizabeth Warren: 15.67%
5) Bernie Sanders: 13.42%
6) Beto O'Rourke: 4.68%
7) Jay Inslee: 3.37%
8) Amy Klobuchar: 1.62%
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)This is helpful.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,643 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bradshaw3
(7,527 posts)I was wondering how the poll worked, so appreciate it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden