Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumTwo maps showing what happens if we take WI, MI and PA. Go to the website make your own maps.
Biden is best equipped to rebuild the blue wall. He can appeal to those voters both in terms of moderation and geography. Also next time you are hating on Manchin or other conservadem Senators...look at the map and consider how limited our options are in holding a majority in the Senate without which we will get no judges and no policy.
https://www.270towin.com/
The first map shows no path for an electoral college win for Trump when we win WI,MI and PA
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The second map shows what happens when we don't win WI, MI and PA.
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primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jalan48
(13,881 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)Even if Biden took Michigan and PA...it puts him at 269 and throws the election into the House...but we may get another state ...we only need 1 EC delegate. How about Biden and Castro...maybe Texas is in play or Biden and Beto for the same reason.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jalan48
(13,881 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)Can a woman be elected Vice president or President? I am not sure.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
it's "risky" to have a woman as a VP now??
Ridiculously sexist argument. It's not remotely "risky."
VP's almost never actually guarantee a state that wasn't already in the win column anyways.
Obama would have won PA regardless of Biden. Trump would have won Indiana regardless.
Bush would have won TX regardless. Clinton I believe won TN both times, but I'd have to check.
Reagan would have won TX regardless.
You have to go back quite awhile to find a VP that was responsible for winning a state.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)we will never know. Hillary Clinton won most of the rustbelt states in the primary...Biden sure helped. He was sent to those states in 08 to campaign, and he pretty much saved Obama in 12...along with the explainer in chief... Bill Clinton. You all want a certain candidate and I get that...but if I didn't think Biden could win, I would pick a different candidate. I want to win and get rid of Trump who is a danger to our Republic.
I see no other candidate who will win a primary that can help us in the states we need. Polls show a significant number of voters are reluctant to vote for a woman...who knows. But the current crop of women candidates don't help us in the states we need to win. They would add little to the ticket. I would pick Stacy Abrams before I picked any of the current candidates. she might deliver Georgia and maybe some other southern states. I would consider Castro for the same reason in Texas...reach out to the Latina vote and put Texas in play...maybe a longshot. It is all about the numbers for me. I like all our candidates with the exception of Sanders and Gabbard (being honest). I will vote for the Democratic nominee no matter who it is. But if you look at that map, it is going to be a tough election. The rustbelt is our ticket to ousting Trump and candidate most likely to do that is Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)if you can see no other candidate that will win that can help us in those three states.
It's a ridiculous position based on nothing.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)Explain further.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)let me know when you have any more "proof" that Biden can win those states than any other candidate.
You don't because not much if any polling has been done, and any polling done at this point is completely meaningless.
So all you really have is a theory. No evidence, just your belief.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)states we need...save Ryan. I also mentioned the midterms...I made a case for my opinion.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
No you didn't. You made an a priori statement....but didn't actually provide any evidence to support it. No polling, nothing.
You just made a claim not only that Biden would win three states you picked, but that no one else could.
Then you basically said no women for either slot.
It's ridiculous.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)by winning those three states where Trump is currently WAY under water in approval??
Seems pretty obvious that's possible.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)Those voters won't vote for left left..
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)Harris isn't left left, neither is Buttigieg, or Klobachur, or Beto, or Booker...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)Not that there is anything wrong with being left. I am a progressive. But for the voters we are going after being called a leftist and /or a socialist will her candidates And the problem is Harris and the others save Sanders ( he has his own issues) don't have the history to fight this sort of thing. None of them do...Biden's long service in government is a double edged sword. It allows some to attack him but it also helps with attacks because people have heard it all before. So even though Biden's positions are not much different than most Democrats...when he is attacked people know him and shrug it off.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)It's no better than the Bernie folks who think only their guy can win.
I'm done with this conversation, it's fruitless.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Celerity
(43,485 posts)2 centrist white males from a narrow geographical area, with one of them on record as comparing Pelosi to Trump in terms of popularity (and campaigning hard to try and dump her as speaker.)
That ticket is extremely problematic for women, POC, Pelosi supporters, and progressives. It doesn't widen the map and all and runs the major risk of depressing turnout in the base as well as the left.
You simply are far too fixated on the older, white male lunchbucket demographic in just a few midwest states. A large reason (one of many) Clinton lost in 2016 was a big downward trend in A-A voting nationwide, and especially in key midwest and southern cities (and an uptick in A-A's voting Republican). Kaine was a bad VP pick. Ryan is even worse. There is no hard evidence he even delivers Ohio.
Harris is going to have issues with her 100-day gun law executive order threat. I have no idea why she came out with that, the NRA and other gunner scum are going to go wild over that.
Klobuchar is far too centrist (probably after Delaney the least to the left Dem in the race). She will be more problematic for progressive left than even Ryan I think.
Abrams would be Joe's best choice by far, IMHO, but we SO need the Senate back and she has at least a 50/50 shot at taking out Trump-humper Perdue. Maybe Jon Ossoff can try again (well it is a step up from his Rep race) if Joe picks Stacey.
Biden/Abrams is probably the strongest ticket we could run out. I think she runs for Senate though, unless Biden starts to really falter by July or early August.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)Stacy Abrams or Castro who is from Texas...maybe we get Texas.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)happening. I think she could help us win despite misogyny and then would run in time...for female president who could probably win a landslide.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,485 posts)She was my number one choice in 2016 and now, but she will not ever run I would wager. She doesn't have the pure power desire (which makes me want her more! lolol) to put herself through it.
I think Jon Ossoff can beat Perdue (he came really close to winning in 2017 in a really red district that had TONNES of shady Rethug manoeuvring) if Biden has coattails and there would be no GA coattails like Abrams coattails if she is Joe's VP. Abram put NC and GA completely in paly, and will also help (massively) the POC vote in the Midwest (and nationwide).
Still am vexed that Kamala Harris came out with that 100 day executive action gun law statement. That will HURT in the Midwest and elsewhere if Biden picks her. Plus she is all in on MFA (not just a public option). As for Texas, I do not think even Beto can deliver it. It is going to be turbo-charged with RW thug haters (Rump won it by 800,000 in 2016). I do think Biden can maybe bring in Arizona and Abrams probably won't hurt. Abrams also helps put FL in play IMHO.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)but like I have said a girl can dream sigh...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)they are not going to get into the grind and seedy world of politics again. Except that as former President and First Lady, they make statements, endorse, a speech here and there.
They have some great films coming out on Netflix.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lunasun
(21,646 posts)No cares so uninvolved elitist almost
https://www.obama.org/
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/12/obamas-political-group-shifts-focus-gerrymandering/578770/
just an example or two
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)We don't have popular vote elections...we have an electoral college, and all Trump has to do is hold the usual GOP places and win WI, MI and PA for an electoral college win. So honestly a Ryan would make sense geographically...and for these particular voters. As for Nancy Pelosi, I love her and called Ryan and yelled at him for it. But AOC also attacked Nancy...so it wasn't just Ryan. It came from the moderate wing (new house majority was won by moderates so they are newly empowered) and the left wing.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,485 posts)It is not a good look to keep on relentless repeated debunked RW and twitter toll pushed garbage.
Also, Ryan is not going to be the VP
Lunchbucket voters going to Trump was NOT the only reason Tump won those 3 states. I have in massive detail in other posts, the African American vote collapsed there (and many black men, more than usual, voted Rethug as well) too. Ryan alienates too many core groups to be a viable VP choice. Pelosi fans, woman, POC, and progressive left. He would be a poor, poor choice, worse than Kaine, who was a bad choice as well. The only thing Ryan has over Kaine is that he is a far better speaker. I still have no clue why Hillary picked Kaine. Not a wise choice. Let's not repeat history.
You simply cannot run a good old boy, white male only centrist ticket (with one of them a known anti-Pelosi insurgent) without courting big trouble. I profoundly disagree with you on your anti-female candidates stance. You know this as we have been going back and forth for months. I personally find it offensive to be told over and over and over that the country is too misogynistic to run a woman. Did you same the same thing about Obama running in 2008, just flipped to a black man can not win in this country, it is too racist?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)I am not advocating any VP. Biden will choose But you are wrong about Tim Ryan. He is a good guy. He has done much good for Ohio.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,485 posts)A since-banned member kicked it all off long ago by posting a twitter troll's post accusing AOC of attacking Pelosi, which was a direct mimic of a couple RW sites.
That member (and others who joined in the swarm) tried to characterise the climate change demonstration as 'AOC & her sign carrying group' are trying to stab Pelosi in the back. That was pure rubbish as was easily borne out wen the video of what she actually said was seen.
AOC didn't organise it and only spoke to them briefly during which she said
here is a timeline
1. Something happened at the Capitol Tuesday to reaffirm my long-held view that liberals should stop believing what conservatives say liberals believe.
2. One of the biggest obstacles in the history of American liberalism has been this tendency among liberals to accept as true things liberalisms enemies say about it and them.
3. Newly elected members of the US Congress arrived for orientation. @Ocasio2018spoke at a sit-in featuring about 200 people outside Nancy Pelosis office.
4. The protest, as it was called, was organized by an advocacy group aiming to raise awareness about climate change and to advocate for more green-energy jobs.
5. This was manna to Ocasio-Cortez, who made history as the youngest woman ever elected to Congress after unseating US Rep. Joe Crowley, the former No. 3 in the House Democratic leadership.
6. The 29-year-old Latina has been stumping for liberal candidates across the country, making liberal arguments in unapologetically liberal ways. That she spoke with activists demanding action from leading liberals should have come as no surprise to anyone any time anywhere.
7. But then came this bit of disinformation from the spokeswoman of Paul Ryan to Capitol Hill reporters, which set the tone for the entire day: "Huh, well this is unconventional," AshLee Strong wrote in an email. "The incoming speaker is getting protested by one of her freshman."
8. From this point onward, Ocasio-Cortez wasnt doing what a young dynamic liberal legislator does. No, no, no! She was protesting Pelosi!
9. AshLee Strong paved the way for every Capitol Hill reporter to tell a story they had been wanting to tell even though the narrative was based on a falsehood: that this unruly mob cant be controlled.
10. This narrative drew the ire of liberals who would have otherwise cheered Ocasio-Cortez. It rekindled the battle between the youngs and the olds, between centrists and leftists, and between insurgents and the establishment.
11. Worse, it inspired some liberals to trot out the old (often vaguely sexist) nomenclature: Ocasio-Cortez was grandstanding. She was showboating. She was this, that, and whatever. Too many liberals accepted as true what liberalisms enemies said about it and them.
12. Thing is, when you actually listen to the women, a different picture comes to light. Not only was Ocasio-Cortez doing what young dynamic liberal legislators are supposed to dobring new energy and new ideas to the table
13. she was charting her own course while forging alliances with established powers. She created a bridge between an energized under-30 base & the partys leadership. Shell likely be an invaluable ally as Pelosi plots a way forward.
14. Few can say theyve accomplished more on their first day.
15. Bloomberg reported the incident was a challenge to party unity. The Times said earlier these renegades may be unwilling to toe the party line. Foxs Laura Ingraham thrilled at the sight of Nancy Pelosi trying to wrangle newly elected insurgents.
None of it was true.
16. As is the case when women rise to power, people are eager to project onto them what they want to see, and are not listening to what they are actually saying.
17. Reporters can be trusted to frame politics in conservative terms. Thats what happened. Right-wing media can be trusted to cement the view that the Democrats are a mob and risk overplaying their hand. Thats what happened. But liberals ought to know better.
18. Here is what Ocasio-Cortez said to activists:
19. Later, to the news media:
AOC: One of the things I admire so much about Leader Pelosi is that she comes from a space of activism and organizing. And so I think that she really appreciates civic engagement. What Im here to do is to support the folks who are here.
20. AOC: This is about uplifting the voice and the message of the fact that we need a Green New Deal and we need to get to 100 percent renewables because our lives depend on it.
***We are here to back [Pelosi] up.***
21. To which, Pelosi said: We are inspired by the energy and activism of the many young activists and advocates leading the way on the climate crisis
22. Pelosi: We welcome the presence of these activists, and we strongly urge the Capitol Police to allow them to continue to organize and participate in our democracy.
23. Um, yeah, no. This was not a protest, as Republican AshLee Strong said. It was activism. This was not disunity. It was unity.
24. This isnt the Tea Party. This isnt a conservative party. Its a liberal and democratic party. Reporters should cover it as such if only for the purpose of accurately representing reality.
25. But liberals werent listening either. They should have been. Instead, they accepted as true what liberalisms enemies said about it and them.
Later on AOC came out (unlike Ryan and a lot of other 'centrists' New Democrat Caucus members and the centre-right Problem Solvers caucus) SUPPORTED Pelosi for Speaker. I documented the actual opposition by the centrists here.
Ocasio-Cortez supports Nancy Pelosi in House speaker race
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is in Nancy Pelosis corner.
The 29-year-old progressive star, who will become the youngest member of Congress, criticized a letter signed by 16 Democrats calling for new leadership and announcing they will not vote for Pelosi as House speaker.
When I was reading this letter that was kind of released today, my main concern was that there is no vision, there is no common value, there is no goal that is really articulated in this letter aside from We need to change, Ocasio-Cortez said on MSNBC on Monday evening.
She noted the lack of racial and ideological diversity among the signers and the absence of a broad-based coalition and warned Democrats that they could become more conservative.
I mean if anything, I think that what it does is that it creates a window where we could potentially get more conservative leadership and when you actually look at the signatories, it is not necessarily reflective of the diversity of the party, said Ocasio-Cortez, who shocked longtime Queens political boss Joe Crowley in a June primary election victory.
snip
as opposed to Ryan.......
Tim Ryan signs letter pledging to vote against Nancy Pelosi for House Speaker
https://www.cleveland.com/politics/2018/11/tim-ryan-signs-letter-pledging-to-vote-against-nancy-pelosi-for-house-speaker.html
CLEVELAND, Ohio U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan and 15 other members of the incoming Congress committed to withholding their vote for Nancy Pelosi as House speaker, even on the floor of the House.
The move is unusual. Unlike caucus leader elections, the speaker is chosen by the entire House. Typically, members support the agreed-upon candidate of their party, even after contentious internal deliberations.
Ryan, a Youngstown-area Democrat, and the other members said in a Monday letter that they were committed to changing the leadership in the House, following significant victories nationwide. Many of the incoming Democratic representatives actively opposed Pelosi during the election after Republicans made her a defining issue in congressional races.
snip
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)notice in 2016 how Sanders pointed out TRADE as an issue in 2016? Well trade loss to rust belt is certainly a HUGE issue today. Biden would be very wise to discuss trade issues if he goes & speaks to the rust belt voters and to Pa., Mi, Wis.
Sanders sees path to beating Trump in Rust Belt | TheHill
https://thehill.com/homenews/.../438710-sanders-sees-path-to-beating-trump-in-rust-b...
Apr 13, 2019 - Bernie Sanders's aides and advisers are convinced that he is the ... Friday on a four-day campaign swing through the Rust Belt that will take ...
Bernie Sanders Pitches Progressive Policies to Rust Belt ... - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/.../sanders-pitches-progressive-policies-to-rust-belt-voters...
Apr 15, 2019 - Bernie Sanders asked Rust Belt voters to embrace his most ... all states that Trump narrowly won in 2016 that will be crucial again in 2020.
Bernie Sanders' Rust Belt rebound - POLITICO
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-sanders-rust-belt-rebound-220478
Mar 9, 2016 - Bernie Sanders' Rust Belt rebound. The senator's ... But the people of Michigan surely do, and Bernie Sanders does too. Sanders' big win ...
Bernie Sanders' Rust Belt rebellion: Is trade a winning issue? - BBC ...
https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35767842
Mar 10, 2016 - Many were surprised when Hillary Clinton lost the Michigan primary to Bernie Sanders. ... Americans' attitudes toward trade in the so-called Rust Belt states? ... In the Michigan primary, voters can request either party ballot on
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)I personally think Kaine was a mistake as VP choice. But Biden was picked for various reasons, I think: different area of the country, rust belt, appeal to white middle class blue collar workers (a weak segment for Obama), his knowledge & experience in foreign policy, his national name recognition and likability....
Choosing a VP is about strategy.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
treestar
(82,383 posts)Biden would never even be VP. His state only brings 3 votes. Same with Palin.
I recall the right wing making fun that Gore did not get his state. However now the states no longer care about having a POTUS or VPOTUS from their state - they care more about the ideology. Texas may go red anyway, even if a Texan is on the ticket.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jalan48
(13,881 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)Last edited Tue Apr 30, 2019, 06:26 PM - Edit history (1)
mentioned. And she would put no other state in play.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)Does MN help, I wonder?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
jalan48
(13,881 posts)we won't win those states in the general election.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
pangaia
(24,324 posts)WOW !!!
Just WOW !!
A woman was elected president last time.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demit
(11,238 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Merlot
(9,696 posts)Gore lost Tennessee.
Also, if Biden is the nominee, you can bet that repubs/putin will pour millions into PA. It will be a point of pride for them to win that state.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)as shown by polls...my maps show one thing, we rebuild the blue wall or we lose to Trump. And our losses would continue. What is our path if we don't rebuild the blue wall even in future elections? Biden gives us the best opportunity to do so. People here forget how important having ties to a states or a neighboring state is.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sugarcoated
(7,728 posts)They've tried and tried, and in the last 30 years it hasn't worked. That is, until we ran a candidate that just enough blue collar rust belt Democrats didn't pull the lever for, and that was WITH Russian propaganda and crooked Don really working the state and he only won it by a whisker. Joe Biden is well loved here and those same union Dems will eagerly go to the polls for Joe, and to vote out a traitor.
I've lived in the Delaware Valley nearly my whole life, Joe speaks our language, Philly accent and all.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)Nice area
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sugarcoated
(7,728 posts)I'll look it up
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)We backed up to both Jersey and upstate New York.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)Clinton barely lost those three states.
We have a half dozen candidates AT LEAST as attractive a candidate as she is.
ANY of them can win those three states.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)other than Biden? You think a candidate from California or New York can do it? It is Geography 101 combined with an understanding of who won the midterms and gave us the house. Biden and Ryan are from the area. No one else is. The voters we are going after are moderate like the Democrats who won us back the house...we have few opportunities outside of these three states...and if we consider the Senate it makes me want to sob...so tough for us to win a majority... not possible without senators like Manchin. We need someone who can beat Trump...Biden can do that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
so a candidate has to be from a midwest state to win a midwest state??
Beto isn't a moderate?
Harris isn't pretty darn moderate?
Buttigieg isn't a moderate? He isn't "from the area?" Pretty sure Indiana is pretty darn close to MI and WI.
The only two non-moderates among the contenders are Warren and Sanders.
Please stop with this "my candidate is the only one" crap.
It's no better than when Sander's supporters pull it.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)not doing well outside of Texas.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Desert grandma
(804 posts)He would help turn Texas blue, and in addition be quite popular with Hispanics. In the end, however, it will be up to the nominee to pick his/her running mate.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)So far, he has been to several rust belt areas and been quite well received.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)It won't Play here,
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)to Mexico along with jobs. There was no robots involved....you go to the midwest with that message and Trump gets four more years, I will not support Mayor Pete given these statements in the primary...sure a general but not
in a primary.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)But most jobs being shipped out right now are due to moving jobs and equipment I might add to low wage countries . Don't come here and say shit about robotics...not.true. Everyone knows someone who lost their job in Lordstown . Also many parts plants closed as a result of Lordstown.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)But what Pete was trying to explain is this: Trump promises to bring these jobs back which we all know is a lie. Those jobs will never come back and any new manufacturing plants that do come in will be mostly automated so we have to train people for new jobs. This is basically what Hillary said.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)Manufacturing. Don't make it in profitable to ship jobs overseas . Tariff foreign competitors who don't allow our car in their country. You tell the midwest the jobs are gone,so are votes for Democrats. So don't shrug and say oh well. We will lose presidential elections forever if we lose the blue wall. White collar jobs are going overseas now too. It is wrong. i like mayor Pete but he is off my primary list.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)And does he plan to reverse it?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)Say what mayor Pete said. Biden knows we have to have manufacturing jobs. Biden has a great record more recently and an 85% lifetime rating on manufacturing.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)And he did say we have lost jobs due to NAFTA. His many point is that in the near future, automation will be a bigger threat. And he thinks small, specialty manufacturing can help replace the soon to be automated plants. I could not find any position on trade agreements, but he is pro-union.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)that job losses are the result of robots taking jobs...not true . This is a typical excuse used by globalist for shipping jobs overseas. Mayor Pete won't take the rustbelt which such views.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)so it's unfair to say it's a globalist excuse until he does take a position.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Funtatlaguy
(10,885 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)Florida elected a Republican governor and Senator. The polls show there is strong support for Trump. It is unlikely we can carry Florida. We haven't won North Carolina since Obama's first run and we have never run Arizona that I remember, but we have a good chance in the rustbelt where polls show that voters are angry with Trump and who have kicked out Republican governors in WI and MI and who reelected a Democratic governor by a landslide in PA. You play the odds...the blue wall makes more sense
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
StevieM
(10,500 posts)We will target all of those states. It would be crazy to focus on a narrower path to victory.
We were going to win North Carolina, Florida and Arizona in 2016, but Comey put an end to all of that. Without Comey and Putin we would have won the 2016 election by a wide margin.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)We need a moderate nominee to win in NC, FL and AZ. We have never won Arizona by the way. I am hopeful... Biden can win the rustbelt and broaden the map. A moderate won the Senate in Arizona in 18... we lost both a Senate seat and failed to gain a governorship in Florida in 18. As for North Carolina who knows? We still have a gerrymander to deal with. I sure wouldn't count on it as we have not won it since 2008. The blue wall prevents a defeat and gives us an opening to expand the map.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
StevieM
(10,500 posts)As for North Carolina, HRC was leading there throughout the race, until the Comey intervention. It was wise of her to target that state and we should target it again in 2020.
We lost Florida in 2018 because Gillum was swift boated and took down the rest of the ticket with him--the exact same thing that happened nationally in 2016.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)would have won it in 96.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
StevieM
(10,500 posts)And I think we would have won it because many polls had us in ahead and I completely reject the claim that the polls were wrong. The polls were right--and then they changed, because of Comey and Putin.
I also reject the assertion that Comey's multiple interventions only marginally altered the race. I believe the evidence shows that he turned the race upside down repeatedly. Without his illegitimate interference we would have destroyed Trump. And that includes winning Arizona.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)I have hope after our Senate win but it was very close and I just don't believe you we can put all our eggs in the Arizona basket. Trump is living in the rustbelt for a reason...deny him those states and he loses.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
AlexSFCA
(6,139 posts)but also trumpism.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)It could happen without the right candidate.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)I started to respond about the Comey misconception which, despite evidence to the contrary, people still believe. There is no evidence that Comey impacted Clinton negatively. Jill Stein likely impacted her more. There is one late poll, right before the election, that showed Clinton ahead by 4 or so points with just Clinton vs. Trump, but Trump ahead by 2 or so points with Jill Stein in the mix.
I have a list of all the latest polls (11/7 & 11/8), with each poll result followed by the most recent same poll before that time (usu. 10/28). Comey's October surprise was 10/28. The comparisons show little difference between those two time periods. In some Clinton notched down a tad, in others she notched UP.
Because of those polls, immediately after the election results, I wondered if Russia had hacked some election results, because the results did not at all jive with the thrust of ALL of the polls. There was no reason to think that Comey had had any impact. I believe that people were tired of hearing about the emails and disregarded any further statements about them, whether the statements came from Trump or Comey or anyone else.
But I thought if I'd responded to your post, that we both might be alerted on. Because we are not supposed to be rehashing the 2016 election. Still, you threw in a misstatement of fact that needed to be corrected, IMO. If your post was really just about how it applies to 2020, there would have been no need to rehash the WHY of it all. There was criticism at the time that Clinton had not focused on the rust belt, and that had an impact on results. Like I said, though, my immediate impression was that Russia may have hacked results in certain key swing districts in those states, and since the election results were going to be close, that was enough to swing those districts.
The Russian interference has not been resolved, so it could happen again.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Funtatlaguy
(10,885 posts)But, yes, those are tougher Dem states than PA, WI, MI that all 3 are at 42%.
Remember too, though, that we really need AZ and N.C. (and possibly GA Senate seats) to get 50.
Southern states would probably need at least one southerner on ticket (Im counting Texas as a Southwestern State).
So, a Veep with someone like Beto, Castro, Abrams, Gillum might work.
https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/michael-w-chapman/trump-approval-above-50-17-states-including-62-approval-wva
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mnhtnbb
(31,401 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Renew Deal
(81,869 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)It is unlikely given the midterms. The Blue wall is a new way of winning by the way before Virginia we had to win either Florida or Ohio.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
VMA131Marine
(4,145 posts)especially in places like NC and AZ. AZ in 2018 certainly looked like place a Dem can win in 2020.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)fully automatic ones.
To say that will be a hard sell in Arizona is a massive understatement.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,511 posts)Be great if Mark Kelly could win in spite of advocating for sensible gun laws.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)Run on a winning message.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)Trump in 20 or I don't think it will matter going forward.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
tymorial
(3,433 posts)The GOP will be screwed. You can bet the day after the election they will we talkin about how antiquated the electoral college is. You can also be certain that all of the red States will be in line to sign the national vote compact agreement
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)the electoral college. There are enough small state to block it...and can I just say that is foolish for us to switch to popular vote if the GOP doesn't...gives them two ways to win.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
tymorial
(3,433 posts)My point was that without Texas the GOP would have very little chance of winning the presidency under the Electoral College. They would need every single swing state which is highly unlikely .
Many Democrats and some traditional blue States are in favor of switching to a national popular vote systen but the Republicans are dead set against it. If they lost Texas I would imagine their opinion would change immediately.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
trueblue2007
(17,237 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)1) Here's a map.
2) Here's a guy from an important place on the map.
3) The guy from an important place on the map and only the guy from the important place on the map can win important places on the map.
4) I PERSONALLY can't see any other people who can win those important places and I PERSONALLY can't see any other important places.
5) You can't prove to ME that my PERSONAL OPINION is wrong, therefore I am right.
6) If you doubt this, go back to step 1.
Masterful work. Have you consider a career as a political consultant? You could make millions by matching up important people with important places on a map.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)and held a rally there Joe is from PA. He will win that state as he is beloved in that state He is an attractive candidate in the Midwest...new polls out today showing Joe with a commanding lead with Black women 49% in Morning Consult and 50% in CNN. He holds a commanding lead overall...double digits. He is leading Sanders in New Hampshire. Biden is the one who will defeat Trump...sure it is an opinion based on polls and the electoral map which shows me how we win and how we lose. I don't want a popular vote win without the electoral college again...because it is still a loss and Trump gets to stay in the White House...this can not be allowed to happen.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)He is leading in the polls today. That does not mean he will be leading in the polls a year from now. Front runners have had big falls before.
Nobody will neglect the rust belt this time around.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)We take those states and it is over.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)The go back to Biden and only Biden can win because of a map.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demit
(11,238 posts)Those are totally indicative and are going to stay exactly the same. I mean, QED, dude.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)doing so.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demit
(11,238 posts)As much as you stare at your tea leaves, and throw your bones, the future unfolds based on real things. Not the hopeful thinking of devoted fans on discussion boards intent on convincing everyone else of one candidate's inevitability.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
AlexSFCA
(6,139 posts)Sinema won senate seat in 2018. We should also be able to win Florida - Nelson and Gillum almost won.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)win Arizona and never do.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)called her out on it. Even then, it was down to the wire.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
AlexSFCA
(6,139 posts)Sinema - openly bisexual and the only senator with no religious affiliation (atheist) - not bad for a centrist! I say dems will win AZ in 2020 and will pick another dem senator seat. Mcsally wants to run again and she will have even tougher oppenent to beat.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Amimnoch
(4,558 posts)Last edited Wed May 1, 2019, 06:17 AM - Edit history (1)
All of our candidates have similar chances at pulling the traditional battleground states when it comes down to it, probably a bit extra favor in the Rust belt for Biden and Pete,
Beto is the main one that can pull a single state conversion win, AND still have a good chance of pulling in a few of the Rust belt states.
Beto also has a proven history of bumping down ticket candidates as well (my own district in Texas is blue for the first time since the 1960's when George HW Bush took the seat).
Beto could also pull some of the battlegrounds + Texas making for an even prettier win:
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
crazytown
(7,277 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Amimnoch
(4,558 posts)It does still push the point I was peddling. Any campaign that puts Texas at all in play makes a major change to the dynamics of the GE.
Texas flips, and its over for Cheetolini.
No other red state flipping alone can make that same claim.
Beto being on the ticket doesnt take any of the other potential swing states out of play. He does add Texas to the list of possible flips.
Texas is also looking like it will have Jaoquin Castro running for Senate putting a strong Senate race in play. Beto being on our Presidential ticket will improve Castros chances of unseating Cornyn in the Senate, and Jaoquins campaign could help Betos chance of making the Texas flip happen.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Bayard
(22,128 posts)What if Biden would pick none of his fellow campaigners? I'm thinking that might be the best thing. We wouldn't be losing any of our seats in Congress. Think outside the box.
Are there any women Dem governors (or former) who might fit the bill? Past Cabinet members?
There's always Oprah!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Should NOT count on them. TRussia "won" these last time.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)a very small percent couple thousand disenfranchised and about 2% votes to spoilers handed Rs the 'win'
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mnhtnbb
(31,401 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,639 posts)If we win only Michigan and Pennsylvania, we throw it into a Democratically controlled house... it is our only play.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden