Biden has lost 2 primaries. What will be different this time?

[floppyboo]

He is up against a very wide Democratic primary field, and very weird incumbent. So that's different.
But what strengths does he have now that he didn't have then?

He would do a world of good if he were able to defeat Trump, but I'm not convinced he'll get more than the usual base out to vote, and that's not good enough as witnessed in 2016

[spooky3]

1. I think the biggest difference is his association with Pres. Obama.

A lot of people would like to bring back the best of the Obama years.

[Thekaspervote]

2. Agree..

[floppyboo]

9. get that. But how does that bring in more than the base?

With gerrymandering and the electoral college, and the persistent anti-Obama message - still now! (you'd think Trump was campaigning against him, let alone Clinton) How do you get beyound the base?

[thesquanderer]

20. It's not how to get beyond the base, it's how to get WI/MI/PA... and Obama won all of them. (n/t)

[Demsrule86]

91. He won Ohio and Florida too.

[WeekiWater]

38. The base is what you need in a primary. NT

[Cha]

32. Not just his association, spooky.. Biden

was an Excellent VP in his own right. He's had 8 years of executive experience with President Obama.

And, anyone who paid attention then would know that.. and stop worrying about his 2 runs for POTUS.

How about 3rd time a charm?!

[spooky3]

82. I understand what you're saying, Cha, but the factor that I

think matters the most to people who pay less attention than we do here to politics, is the association and hope for a repeat to some extent. I don’t think most people could tell you what he did as VP (or what most other VPs did, except the bad ones).

[Cha]

83. I think Biden made a lot

of valuable strong connections while VP.. I've read our allies know.

[treestar]

45. [phone]

[doc03]

52. That is also a minus in many places, cuts both

ways.

[PoliticAverse]

3. 8 years of being Vice President. n/t

[BlueStater]

6. He was a Senator for like 35 years when he ran for president in 2008.

That's a massive amount of experience even without being VP. Still didn't really help him.

[FBaggins]

47. More and more relevant experience than the rest of the field

Didn’t really help him? He did become VP, right?

Only the governors can compete on relevant experience and even they don’t come close.

[Butterflylady]

49. He was up against Obama and Hillary

Hillary didn't make either. Second try she made it. I honestly don't get the point. Nixon lost a presidential race to Kennedy. Didn't stop him from getting the republican nomination and running again. Just because this is his 3rd try makes no difference.

[delisen]

79. Biden needs to put out a list of what he has been doing.

Voters always need to know some of the accomplishments in office.

[Eko]

4. He has only lost one more time than Sanders.

So?

[CentralMass]

16. Joe ran in 1984, 1988 and 2008

[Eko]

19. You are correct.

I was just going from the op. Regardless, how many times is too much? If Sanders looses this time will that be too many times and he shouldn't run again?

[CentralMass]

25. I was just correcting the count. Sanders could walk on water and he would still get slammed here.

[Eko]

36. True,

but that is the case with every candidate. I do my best not to participate in the slamming.
Keeponkeeponin,
Eko.

[treestar]

46. Has anyone claimed that "Sanders lost in 2016, what's different this time?"

[floppyboo]

57. that'd be a question, not a claim ;) nt

[Blue_true]

63. Lincoln lost something like 12 of 16 political races.

But, WOW, are we lucky that he ran the last two instead of giving up and not trying the 15th time.

[Eko]

70. True.

[W_HAMILTON]

5. For starters...

...he now has eight years of vice presidential experience, he is easily the current frontrunner, and currently his biggest threat (Sanders) is not very much of a threat...

[floppyboo]

11. I am very comforted by his 8 years as VP - easy shoe in

He would certainly know, either himself or by well fermented peeps, how to take the reigns.

Thing is, no one knows what that would look like yet. And I think it would be really good, in the current political climate, if he came out quick with some policies, and, of course, an endorsement for the Green New Deal.

[Funtatlaguy]

7. Being in an Administration that saved us from a depression

Got Bin Laden
Many other accomplishments.
The argument against Biden is certainly not his resume.

[BannonsLiver]

8. Technically Biden has lost one

Last edited Thu Apr 25, 2019, 05:52 PM - Edit history (1)

He withdrew in September 1987, 5 months before the Iowa caucus.

He did lose in 2008 like Bernie did in 2016. So they’ve “lost” the same number of primaries.

What’s different about Bernie this time? Judging from his disaster of a CNN town hall, and his cringe worthy showing at She The People, the answer is a resounding not much.

[4139]

15. Ouch! But accurate.

[NYMinute]

71. Some people are getting nervous about Biden

and trying to ask for help with concern OPs.

[BannonsLiver]

73. Yes, a lot of saltiness today

I see some of that from supporters of another popular candidate here who probably got the impression this was going to be easy at some point over the last few weeks.

[NYMinute]

76. It is mainly Sanders supporters

who were thinking it was in the bag for him. I saw someone say "Sanders is inevitable"

[PupCamo]

80. word

[qazplm135]

10. Sanders lost one

Last edited Thu Apr 25, 2019, 06:45 PM - Edit history (1)

when he was going up against someone who'd already lost one herself, was the subject of investigations, and had a lot going against her, and got very few votes from POC.

Now, he faces a very wide field, some very progressive.

So what's different? What strengths does he have now?

The reality is that Biden and Sanders both have strengths and weaknesses. Every election is different. Biden has never entered an election as the favorite or even among the favorites. So that right there is "different." Biden was an 8 year VP next to one of our most beloved Democratic Presidents since FDR. That right there is "different."

[floppyboo]

18. did you mean 'sanders' wasn't an 8 year VP?

edit? trying to understand.

[mahina]

12. People love him because Barack chose him

Also he’s an endearing if you listen to him speak, unless it’s about Anita Hill

[LakeArenal]

61. Biden voted No to Clarence Thomas

[BlueStater]

13. Well, he's tied to Obama now.

That still doesn't change who is he as a person: a gaffe-prone dude with an extremely unappealing voting record.

Yeah, everything that people disliked about him in 2007 is still there. He didn't suddenly turn into Obama just because he's now associated with him.

[WheelWalker]

55. Wow. How incredibly insightful.

Not.

[BlueStater]

89. Substantial response.

Not.

[Skittles]

14. desperation, I suppose

[Doreen]

17. The circumestances are very different this time.

Our country is facing a lethal situation. People are going to tend to look harder at each candidate and that there could very possibly make the difference from his last runs.

[CTyankee]

22. yes, I remember my mother saying "circumstances alter cases." I remember her saying it on a

number of occasions so it stuck with me...

[Doreen]

23. Your mother is a wise person.

[mobeau69]

24. Ole Joe has a hell of a lot to vet. This will prove a real vulnerability for him.

[floppyboo]

26. looking harder at his record may not be to his favor

I am honestly surprised he is running. At a time when the party seems to be divided (although I think this is more media fuelled than it is a reality) his declaring to run as a progressive ("the most progressive candidate&quot is really going to come back and slap him. Ex-Reb Warren can run progressive circles around him!

Again, what's going to be different? And that does not include being Obama's VP - which is not going to show anything different.
Yes, Obama got not just the US, but arguably the whole western world out of a bank collapse by letting the banks dictate the solution, but that bandaid is getting septic and peeling.

Next?

[OilemFirchen]

84. The U.S. has, as of 2/29, profited $107 billion from the bank bailout.

https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/

Go ahead. Use that against Biden.

[Clarity2]

21. Because before there was Trump

He was coming out of the gate as VP. There is trust attached to the obama administration.
Millennials loved obama. My own millennial son who hero worships obama, also loves biden. He will vote for him. He once liked Sanders, but Biden wins over sanders by a landslide. He also doesn't fall for the creepy joe propaganda. I would imagine there are a lot of young people who feel the same way.


The obama administration is the safe/happy place before the storm from hell came into the WH. Biden was part of that.

[mobeau69]

27. I loved Obama as president too but

I want to look to the future now, not the past. Looking to the past is what magats do.

[Clarity2]

31. The magats

Are in the 1950s. Obama and Biden were only a few yrs ago.

This isnt about fresh blood. This is about winning. When we get our country back in the grips of dems, strengthen our democracy, then we can think about fresh and new. And even then, I will always fear unknown, untested candidates.

[floppyboo]

30. that storm was not a dream you can just wake up from.

It was all real, and it had been brewing for some time.
I think when Biden's record on bankruptcy and Glass-Steigal is re-hashed for the next 12 months, as the economy crashes, it may be hard to stand tall beside the safe/happy narrative.

[Clarity2]

44. Im worried about russia

About the integrity of our elections. The fitness of our democracy to stand another president like trump and not become a dictatorship. The non-ability of a novice to put the pieces of our broken govt back again.

Bernie will not be it. Hes anti NATO. And he has so many more worrisome red flags. He and Tulsi Gabbard were the first people off my list. Those who have no experience in federal govt also get a no.

[floppyboo]

69. China, NK, Israel, Saudi, India, Khazakistan?

You should be vigilant.
Who is president is not going to change any of that.
Are you worried that SBS will start looking not only at Russian interference, but at all of them?
Biden, unfortunately, has a record of interference in at least Ukraine. I haven't been looking into it, but because of his tenure as VP, I'm sure vetting will bring out more.

[Clarity2]

90. Of course

I...we...worry about other foreign threats, but as far as election interference, russia is the main threat right now. They need serious sanctions and putin needs to actually pay the price.

As far as bernie, I question his connections with russia. His record on voting for sanctions, his anti-NATO stance, his interest in creating a “NATO 2.0” stated on the record a few yrs ago with Russia and middle eastern countries...the mueller report statement where Russia said they “support trump and sanders”... these are VERY concerning.

I know nothing about Biden/Ukraine. Bring it on if there is something there. But I’m woke, and immunized against conspiracy theories, if thats what its about. If there was interference though, it is no way near the level of what russian did to us, and other countries. Not even close. Our country has always promoted democracy in other countries, which unfortunately other dictatorships have classified as “interference”.

[oasis]

67. "Biden's record on bankruptcy and Glass-Steigal is rehashed"?

And just who's going to be doing all of that "re-hashing"?

[mobeau69]

88. The media and debate opponents?

[Doreen]

34. I know he is NOT Obama but I

admit that is a small part of why I want him. He is the closest to what we had with Obama. Like I said it is only a small part, more like a fleeting after thought but still a thought.

[Clarity2]

51. Same here

Just s small bit. Im really thinking strategy mostly, then ability as far as experience.

[Doreen]

72. I think my part of wanting the same as Obama is his kindness

and good personality like Obama.

[Kurt V.]

28. hopefully he will lose again. we need forward thinking leaders not nostalgia

[honest.abe]

41. Its not nostalgia.. it the desire to restore sanity in the WH and return America to normalcy.

I also do believe Joe can think forwardly and his VP (likely Kamala Harris) can as well.

[Kurt V.]

50. we have an opposition party completely off the rails going on 40 yrs. much worse in the last 20.

Nothing normal about that. so you're remembering a time that did not exist.

[honest.abe]

58. Normalcy in a relative sense.

For sure we will always have RW lunatics but with a Biden admin at least the exec branch will be "normal".

[Kurt V.]

64. i agree biden would be a stabilizing force. i just feel we're on precipice and joe could stop us fro

going over the edge. but i want a candidate that backs us away from it too.

[honest.abe]

68. Yes, I know what you are saying.

But I think the voters want stability more than big progressive changes at this point in time.

[Kurt V.]

81. again, completely agree those 2 issues are at the front.

time will tell.

[C_U_L8R]

29. After 8 strong years as a magnificent VP

we know Joe better now and like him a whole lot more.

[floppyboo]

39. please don't bandy around the word magnificent

this word is not lightly used.

Proof of his magnificence please?

[Cha]

40. Great answer! Mahalo, C_U_L8R

[KayF]

33. his poll numbers against Trump

Last edited Thu Apr 25, 2019, 06:56 PM - Edit history (1)

at a time when that's the most important thing for a lot of people.

for example

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/PPP_Release_National_12219.pdf

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest national poll finds that at the midway point of Donald
Trump's term as President, he's a clear underdog for reelection.
Trump gets just 41 or 42% in head to head match ups against 7 likely Democratic
candidates for President. He trails Joe Biden 53-41, Bernie Sanders 51-41, Kamala Harris
48-41, Beto O’Rourke 47-41, Elizabeth Warren 48-42, and Cory Booker and Kirsten
Gillibrand each 47-42.

[floppyboo]

54. we're looking at different things perhaps?

I don't click on tweets unless close friends, but I do see from this poll, https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_042319/ that Biden is down from 80 to 76 and Sanders is up 68 to 70 in favorability rating.
So yes, Biden is up, but he's dropping.
And the Morning Consult poll also shows Biden dropping from 35% to 30% and Sanders dropping 27% to 24% in this latest Morning Consult poll https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/ so

Biden is dropping faster than Bernie.

So, all in all, I think it is very brave for Biden to step in. He has some work to do.

I just hope whoever wins will support the Green New Deal.

[LongtimeAZDem]

59. Biden introduced legislation to combat global warming three years before AOC was born

I think I can trust him on the subject.

[KayF]

85. good call on the tweet

I'm making an effort not to post tweets, since that's the main way fake news spreads. I replaced it with a direct link to the poll.

But I was talking specifically about polls vs. Trump one-to-one. I actually think the one I posted is one of the lower ones, I think Biden's advantage is greater than that.

[srobertss]

35. He's got the biggest lead over Trump right now

I am getting this from fivethirtyeight.com I think he's ahead of Trump by about 8 points, Bernie is ahead by about 3 points, and the rest are neck and neck with Trump. I know it's early, but that's what I'm going to keep my eye on.

[BlueStater]

42. Again, he has far more name recognition than everyone else.

Once the other candidates get the opportunity to fully introduce themselves to the American people, I fully expect that to change.

[srobertss]

87. I expect it will change

and I will keep my eye on it. When it comes time to vote in the primaries, that will be a big factor in my final decision. I love Sanders and Warren, but when it comes right down to it, we don’t know how much impact Russian meddling had and what new stuff they have in store for 2020. Plus Trump has no intention of protecting elections. They say there are people in his administration working on it nevertheless, but I don’t trust them.

I had been on board with vote for the candidate you like, because Trump will be beaten by just about any of them. But as time has gone on I notice I’m getting jittery. I want as big a margin of error as possible. I think my 2016 election trauma is getting triggered.

[Fiendish Thingy]

37. I don't see him inspiring young voters

And his history re: Anita Hill May affect turnout of WOC in the general.

[treestar]

43. Different year; different situation

These are things of history; why does anyone think they are formulaic?

[WeekiWater]

48. I think Sanders got 1% in his first election and 6% in the next one.

Doesn’t mean you can’t win the next one.

[Agschmid]

53. He's certainly entitled to try, and you're right he might lose again.

[Blue_true]

56. Abraham Lincoln lost 12 political races before winning the Presidency in 1859 and

taking office in 1860.

So, should Lincoln have given up because he was defeated so much? I am the type of person that sees a setback as a growth and learning experience in a long game, never as a final out.

[floppyboo]

66. I was asking what he was going to do to win more than the base.

sorry blue_true. I could have posted this response to any of the above. I feel the question I asked in the OP has been lost.
What will Biden do to win a larger % than the solid base would be a way to re-frame it.

Also, I'm not a Lincoln scholar. Are there parallels with reigning political sentiment btwn him and Biden? Is Biden doing things that Lincoln did?

[Fiendish Thingy]

60. Important question to ask re: electability of a former VP

No Former Democratic VP has been elected President in the past 100 years, maybe ever. (I’m not counting Truman and Johnson, who only faced voters once they were incumbent presidents).

Humphrey lost
Mondale lost
Gore lost (I know, I know...)

Among Republicans, only Nixon and Bush 41 won; Dole lost (I know, he was just a former VP candidate), Quayle didn’t even make it through the Primary...

Being VP is not a guarantee of electability by any means.

[COLGATE4]

65. I believe there is an inchoate yearning among many voters, not just Democrats

for a return to a Presidency that people can feel proud about, not ashamed. For a return to civility in public and political discourse, not a barrage of elementary school insults. For a return to a government that actually cares about the less fortunate members of its society, not a kleptocracy that seeks to exploit the weak as well as the loopholes in the law.

Of all the potential Democratic candidates for President in 2020 I firmly believe that Joe Biden is the package that comes closest to answering this yearning on the part of a great majority of the electorate.

[BlueFlorida]

74. ...

[UniteFightBack]

75. Joe doesn't quit and he's scrappy. You get beat down you rise again. That was then and this is now

that is what is different this time. His strength that nobody else has is he is known by our partners and government players throughout. Many of those players have left service now and we need a SEASONED HAND to quickly get to work like we have never needed before. Our allies need consoling...we need JOE to grab that thread that is unraveling us.

[Eko]

77. He actually only lost one.

He withdrew from the other two.

[PupCamo]

78. Obama

[Honeycombe8]

86. Maybe we should look at Reagan's third run, to see what he did differently? nt

[PDittie]

92. Nothing.