Four years ago, Jeb Bush was leading the polls -- out of 16 candidates. Trump polled at 1%.

[pnwmom]

Jeb Bush was clearly benefiting from name recognition, but that wasn't enough in the long run.

No one should think that the current Democratic front runners are guaranteed to remain the front runners. In politics a dark horse coming from behind isn't unusual, especially this early in the election season.

We will know more once we start having the first debates and primaries.

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/jeb-bush-surges-lead-gop-pack-new-2016-poll

*** Jeb leads the GOP pack: A brand-new national NBC/WSJ poll finds Jeb Bush leading the crowded Republican presidential field, with 22% of GOP primary voters saying he’s their first choice. He’s followed by Scott Walker at 17%, Marco Rubio at 14%, and Ben Carson at 11%. While Jeb had a similar five-point lead in our April NBC/WSJ poll, you see his current position has strengthened when you look inside the numbers of this new poll. (It was conducted during the buildup and coverage of Bush’s official presidential announcement on June 16.) The latest survey shows him ahead among self-identified conservative GOP primary voters – when he was in third place in April behind Rubio and Walker. And as we unveiled on Sunday, 75% of Republican primary voters in our new poll say they could see themselves supporting Bush – up from 70% in April and 49% in March. Bottom line: While Jeb has plenty of potential problems to overcome (his last name, his positions on immigration and Common Core, his desire to run a general-election campaign instead of one aimed at GOP primary voters), this poll is very good news for him.

*** Who gets left off that first debate stage? The NBC/WSJ poll measured 16 GOP candidates in our horserace question. And here are the 10 Republicans who make our poll’s Top 10 – the criteria being used for the first GOP debate in August – and the six who get left off:

Jeb Bush 22%
Scott Walker 17%
Marco Rubio 14%
Ben Carson 11%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Rand Paul 7%
Rick Perry 5%
Ted Cruz 4%
Chris Christie 4%
Carly Fiorina 2%

Donald Trump 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
John Kasich 1%
Bobby Jindal 0%
Rick Santorum 0%
George Pataki 0%

[beachbum bob]

1. the media made trump the favorite with in months as he was given special treatment and free PR

not applicable for today.

[pnwmom]

2. Eventually that happened. But it hadn't happened by the spring four years ago.

DT was barely noticed.

[Demsrule86]

4. Joe is going to be the nominee . And that is a good thing. He will beat Trump.

[beachbum bob]

5. I recall trump getting free time on all the cable networks and that propelled him

my memory is pretty good, he would call into Morning Joe, Foxnews had him, Cnn. Some say he got $100's of millions free media exposure months before the primaries or debates start and then it exploded even more. No comparison to today

[Justice]

9. He was given lots of room to run, covered as an entertainer, readily accessible

He got a free pass right away because no one took him too seriously.

By the time media started taking him seriously, it was too late.

I know plenty of Republicans who saw him out of the gate and were worried about how easily he was being treated by the media.

[marylandblue]

13. Trump had a media strategy, the others did not.

He did everything possible to generate attention. They didn't "give" him anything, he grabbed their attention. It's the only thing he knows how to do, and he does it very well.

So it is very much applicable to today, because Trump will do the same thing again, this time with the power of the Presidency behind him.

Of all the Democratic candidates, only Buttigieg is using Trump's strategy. Too early to tell if it will work as well for him.

[LongtimeAZDem]

3. You're using the Republicans as an example of how we will vote?

[pnwmom]

6. I'm using them to demonstrate the phenomenon of dark horse candidates,

and why it matters that it's still a year and a half till the election.

A lot can change once the primaries and debates begin.

[BlueStater]

7. And Hillary was the favorite to win in 2008.

It was hers to take. No one could stop her. Not Edwards and certainly not Borat Whoshisface from Illinois.

[pnwmom]

8. There were only a handful of candidates who tried. That election was not like this one. n/t

[BlueStater]

10. I'm agreeing with you.

I find Biden to be an incredibly weak frontrunner and I don't think he's going to withstand the media onslaught well at all, especially when he'll have to argue his own merits and won't have Obama's coattails to cling to.

The main argument for his campaign seems to be "I'm better than the guy who's in office now". When has that EVER been a winning campaign message? I can't believe so many people are being taken in by this.

[hurl]

12. The mood seems to have shifted

from 'Wow, we have so many great candidates' to 'Only this one can win and all the weaker ones could just mess this up for us.'

[marylandblue]

14. +1

[LuvLoogie]

11. GOP voters don't want government

They want revenge and punishment on those they despise. trump fit the bill.

Our leaders aren't vindictive shit heads and idiots.

[WeekiWater]

15. You make a solid point.

But we don’t have someone like Trump running. You mention the name recognition of Bush. Trump had the same name recognition going in. The Tra Party was looking for someone who would call the other candidates names. White nationals were looking for one of their own. He lied and lied and lied. We don’t have anyone as unstable, immoral, unethical, or as willing to pander to the lowest common demonstrations.

You are correct in your overall point but their last primary isn’t the best of examples.

[NYMinute]

16. Not a fair comparison

They were not running after 4 years of disaster.

[pnwmom]

18. Beto is one of the dark horses that could upend the primaries. It's way too early

to know how this is going to work out.

[ucrdem]

17. #1, that would be Sanders -- yesterday.

p.s. that very comparison crossed my mind tonight