Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum**University of NH poll** Sanders 30% Biden 18% Buttigieg 15% all others less than %5
Sanders +4, Biden -4, Buttigieg +14
Link to tweet
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Renew Deal
(81,866 posts)Just sit back and take it all in.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,593 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Not enough Democrats will vote for him and not enough kids will show up to vote.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Mr Tibbs
(539 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,593 posts)I don't think Sanders can win the states we need,
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,330 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)Because unless that happens, Bernie gets the states that Hillary got... and he's got a decent shot at MI, WI, and PA. While he's not my first choice, I'd still feel very comfortable with ours odds of success if he were the nominee. Same with Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,593 posts)Sanders won't carry those states in a general...no shot in Ohio either. So Trump wins the electoral college.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(145,330 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)That has the potential to strip away everything that Bernie says that he is. If Bernie starts to be seen as just another person that used politics to enrich himself or herself, his allure to progressive voters gets blown out of the water. I believe that Warren or Buttigieg are going to profit big if the campaign book buy becomes an issue.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
question everything
(47,487 posts)Time to remove both as the king makers.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
vsrazdem
(2,177 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,593 posts)general election nominee that can win...sure I would vote for Sanders in a general but, he won't win.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,330 posts)Bernie behind = aha Bernies finished! Finished, I tell ya!
Bernie ahead = too early/name recognition! White people state! Fake poll! Clickey clickey!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
vsrazdem
(2,177 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
artislife
(9,497 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,330 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
artislife
(9,497 posts)and the territories, too.
There is no more land mass for him to reach.
Give it up.
Stop while you're ahead
of almost everybody!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)they'd be jumping for joy because he SHOULD be ahead in a state that neighbors him.
Just like Warren should win Mass and if she doesn't that's a problem for her, and if anyone, including Bernie ends up winning it, that's a boon for them.
Or Cali for Harris. Or Delaware for Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)They're two of the lowest populated states in the country and among the least homogeneous states as well.
Combined they have less than 1.4% of the population; Iowa is 90% white, New Hampshire 94%. Neither has a major city. And yet the media and electorate will look at them as choosing the "leader" for the nomination.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)The demographics of those states certainly does NOT represent the United States, AND those demographics aren't as challenging for someone like BS. When everyone is basically the same, and when everyone has so much in common, it's easy for a politician to thread-the-needle.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)....representative of the country and the Democratic Party than either of those states. Plus, they're predominantly republican states, too.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dsc
(52,163 posts)In 2016 we won the governorship. In 2018 we won every statewide race (all judges) the two party vote for state legislature, and the contested two party vote for Congress. Not a predominately GOP state.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Voltaire2
(13,070 posts)and that both chambers of the legislature are controlled by the Democratic Party. That's really odd for a 'predominantly Republican" state. But I;ve read here that you're never wrong, so it must be so.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)Look historically at New Hampshire, not just today.
Prior to Shaheen taking office in 2009 and Hassan just two years ago, both Senators were republicans going all the way back to the 1970s.
New Hampshire's governors have been predominantly republican, too - over the last 50 years republicans have been governor for 34 years, Democrats only 16 years. And of the 73 governors that have been from either party, 52 have been republican, 21 Democratic.
As for Representatives, going back to 1967 (I could go back further but it's worse), that's 120 years (60 for each of the two) republicans have held office 84 years vs. 36 years for Democrats.
BTW, New Hampshire doesn't have a "legislature", they have the General Court.
In the Senate, republicans have held the majority for 21 years since 1992, Democrats 5 years plus almost four months in 2019, and it was evenly split for one year.
In the House, republicans have had the majority for 21 years since 1992, Democrats 6 years plus almost four months in 2019.
Yes, New Hampshire is predominantly republican, unless of course it's not.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Voltaire2
(13,070 posts)Most political analysts consider my state a swing state. But obviously they didnt consult you.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Voltaire2
(13,070 posts)Again: entire congressional delegation is Democratic, both chambers of the legislature are controlled by the Democratic Party, Clinton won the state in 16, Obama in 12 and 08, Kerry in 04.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)So, a state where republicans held the majority in the Senate for 8 of the last 9 years and a majority in the House for 4 of the last 5 years is now considered a "swing state". Where was my head?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Voltaire2
(13,070 posts)But as nobody outside of the politically savvy would know wtf you were talking about, it is commonly referred to as the legislature.
I dont know exactly where your head is, but if its in a bad place Id get it out of there if I were you.
You could google the swing state status of nh, but it seems instead google should consult you.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Considering that he can't even get AA (and other POC) to attend a rally at a BLACK church in a MAJORITY BLACK city, I think that's very revealing of why BS does well in places like IA, NH, and VT.
His rally in North Charleston, SC had so LITTLE ethnic diversity that it looked like he could have been somewhere in Vermont. In fact, based on the statistics, the demographics at that rally was even whiter than Vermont.
It's obvious that the AA and POC community are rejecting BS and the BS campaign. BS just doesn't connect with that community. The BS message just isn't resonating.
All I'm saying is, that without the AA vote, BS doesn't stand a chance. And without the "early" states of IA and NH, it's clear to me that BS would be knocked out much sooner.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
vsrazdem
(2,177 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
vsrazdem
(2,177 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)You said "maybe people will believe you" ... meaning ME ... and insinuating that I'm lying. Calling me a liar, basically.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
vsrazdem
(2,177 posts)What I am insinuating is incorrect is your concept that Bernie does not have any African American support. Bernie and Biden are both leading in the polls for African American support. As far as what events in SC, they were posted here on DU. I am not going to do your work for you. If you want to deal in facts and not just conjecture, then you should look them up.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)His support among the AA community and other POC is tepid and tenative, AT BEST.
But I really can't blame anyone in the AA community for shying away and avoiding supporting someone who believes that the Democrats "focus too much" on diversity.
I think it's also fair to say that the AA community isn't likely to view warmly a candidate who argues that people who the refuse to vote for an African-American because of his skin color "aren't racists".
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
vsrazdem
(2,177 posts)votes will not be known until the primaries start, but I would not call it tepid.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/black-voters-like-bernie-sanders-just-fine-they-just-might-like-other-candidates-more/
A December 2018 Quinnipiac poll found that 55 percent of black voters had a favorable view of Sanders, while 26 percent had an unfavorable view. (Clinton was at 62-22.) Most more recent polls didnt publish candidates favorability with specific demographic groups. (Often the sample sizes arent big enough for the results to be meaningful.) But we reached out to Morning Consult, which is doing regular polling of the 2020 race and so amasses fairly large samples of racial and demographic groups. According to their national polling conducted March 18-24, 71 percent of black Democrats had a favorable view of Sanders, compared to 10 percent who had an unfavorable view.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
vsrazdem
(2,177 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
SWBTATTReg
(22,143 posts)too, on what candidate(s) should make it into the final stages of a campaign. I'm Iowa'ed out, and also, NH'ed out. I am sick and tired of these two states grabbing all of the rings in the merry go round that's to come.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,005 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,593 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
artislife
(9,497 posts)both times he ran for president.
We shouldn't judge the future on the past, or should we? You tell me.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BannonsLiver
(16,397 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
highplainsdem
(49,005 posts)NH poll favoring Sanders has Biden leading Sanders when people are asked which candidate is most likable.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
artislife
(9,497 posts)Biden seems to always jump out quick. I loved him in 88 until the fizzle.
Three times the charm?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to artislife (Reply #31)
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artislife
(9,497 posts)I think I have my explanation.
Thanks for making your "first" post to me.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to artislife (Reply #42)
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artislife
(9,497 posts)to buy some more socks.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)....he withdrew both times before the first primary was held.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Autumn
(45,109 posts)Sure Joe likes wasting time and money. NOT
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,330 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Autumn
(45,109 posts)and he dropped out. In 2008 he didn't get enough significant support and he had made some controversial comments about Obama that the press was all over as being over the top. 2016 would have been his time. And he would have won.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Voltaire2
(13,070 posts)I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy,"
That is the sort of self destruction Joe commits every campaign.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Mr Tibbs
(539 posts)He entered that race with 3% name recognition.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,593 posts)get out of the primary...not good news for Warren.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
mobeau69
(11,145 posts)Go Pete!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Seems to me like "BOOT a-jedge" is a far more accurate phonetic guide than "boot edge edge".
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
RobertDevereaux
(1,857 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Grendam
(38 posts)I don't like the "BOOT-edge-edge" explanation much (It's on his twitter profile). If anyone catches the CNN Townhall promos for tonight, the voiceover says it just like the recommendation, and it sounds very off.
Wikipedia has the pronunciation transcribed as /ˈbuːtɪdʒədʒ/ or BOOT-ih-jəj. I prefer the former because it's more accurate, but you need some knowledge of the IPA.
I've noticed that Buttigieg doesn't even say his own name consistently the same. The best thing to remember is the last vowel is a schwa [ə] which is basically an unstressed, neutral vowel that will often sound indistinctive. Probably why you hear people say the last syllable as either "jedge," "judge," or "jidge."
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mobeau69
(11,145 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,005 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,311 posts)who only entered the national stage officially a few weeks ago. He had essentially no profile at all outside of Indiana just a few months ago. Amazing that he is already at 15% support in NH.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to George II (Reply #19)
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crazytown
(7,277 posts)When likely primary voters were asked who they would vote for - before being given the list of names and asked to pick one. On this measure Sanders was down 10, Biden up 3 and Buttigieg up 10
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)... still making up my mind. Then ... if you had to pick one, here is a list on names - and theres the final results.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)CBS Newspoll (National)
12/17/2003
Howard Dean 23%
Wesley Clark 10%
Joe Lieberman 10%
Richard Gephardt 6%
Al Sharpton 5%
John Kerry 4%
John Edwards 2%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Iowa Caucus
January 19, 2004
John Kerry 38%
John Edwards 32%
Howard Dean 18%
Richard Gephardt 11%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Wesley Clark 0%
Poll: Dean Pulls Away In Dem Race
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-dean-pulls-away-in-dem-race/
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueFlorida
(1,532 posts)Only 9% have definitely decided, 14% are leaning towards someone and a full 70% are still undecided.
This is most telling:
So, the results are 60% of 241 Democrats polled (145) and the MOE for that small a sample is a whopping +/-9.2%
This poll is worthless.
https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1557&context=survey_center_polls
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)What they then do is give those voters a list of names and ask them to pick one.
Heres the raw figures graph
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BlueFlorida
(1,532 posts)which means only 60% did. That lowers the sample size for the actual candidate numbers and increases the MOE.
To give an example ...
100 people went for lunch, 40 said they were not hungry and would eat later. Of the remaining, 18% chose hamburger, 12% chose lasagna, 3% chinese, 2% Indian etc. etc. That doesn't mean 18% like hamburger. It only means 18% of 60 like hamburger.
I think this is terrible news for Sanders -- a neighboring state senator who won the primary last time with a 22% margin and a full 40% are still refusing to name? Not a good sign for him. Most of those 40% will end up choosing someone else.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)That is like putting a poster on one's back saying "Ratfuck me!"
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Nanjeanne
(4,961 posts)Harris, comparing it with the February data. He does not seem to be pulling support from Sanders at this point.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Bettie
(16,110 posts)name recognition.
I expect that things will even out as people learn more about other candidates.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brush
(53,792 posts)South Carolina is the real litmus test.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,330 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden