Confession: I'm not that big of a Beto fan

[Blue_Tires]

But he does deserve some love and I don't want him to get lost in the mix...

[comradebillyboy]

1. He probably should decie aboutm running soon.

[Trenzalore]

2. Neither am I

He generated a lot of enthusiasm in his Senate race but I don't see him as a President with the experience the other candidates have.

[Bradshaw3]

7. Ironic

Since he actually has more legislative experience than Harris. And if we're basing choices on experience, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Sanders, Warren each have much more experience than Harris. If Biden and Brown run, you can add in two more.

[WeekiWater]

9. That's not ironic.

They said experience. You then limited the scope of that word. Kind of makes the case.

Experience isn’t limited in scope as you are defining it.

[Bradshaw3]

18. Of course it's ironic

That a Harris supporter would say Beto doesn't have enough experience while her resume is not much larger than his (however you define it) and it is certainly less than the other senators running.

[Trenzalore]

13. Attorrney General of the largest state is bigger than a congressman

[Bradshaw3]

17. No it's not

Dealing with national legislative issues is obviously more relevant to being President. Regardless that just adds two more years than his to her resume; still not a big difference. And, of course, like I said if experience is whart you want, there ar emany candidates with way more experience than either one of them.

[Gothmog]

3. I like Beto and he is near the top of my list

[dewsgirl]

4. Me too.

[StevieM]

15. I feel the same way. I am leaning towards him. (eom)

[mcar]

5. I hope he runs for Senate

He's got a good future ahead of him, as do Abrams and Gillum.

[Wounded Bear]

12. Me, too...

Needs some seasoning on the national stage before he goes for the big one IMNSHO.

Would love to see him pick up that Texas Senate seat next year. We could definitely use that.

[seaglass]

6. It's why I picked Gillibrand, I refuse to let her have fewer votes than Tulsi Gabbard.

Don't get me wrong, I'd vote for Gillibrand but she wouldn't be my first choice.

[Bradshaw3]

8. I can appreciate the reasoning of people making this decision

For him or others.

[Gothmog]

10. Beto made some swing congressional districts more competitive

Link to tweet

[crazycatlady]

11. I'd rather see him challenge John Cornyn

He can bring coattails to Texas. We need him there.

[Garrett78]

14. And if he loses to Cornyn, then I guess he could be appointed to a cabinet post.

I worry that he can't beat Cornyn given that he couldn't beat Cruz. Then again, that was a midterm election and turnout will be much greater in 2020.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Texas will bounce the other direction in 2020

Beto would be a fool to run against Cornyn. Hillary lost by 9 in Texas 2016. Beto lost by roughly 2.5 points in 2018. So the sloppy subjective appraisal is that Texas is ready to go over the top in 2020.

Not even close. A rebound in the other direction is a massive favorite, probably something like a 5 or 6 point red edge over/under in the presidential race.

The fundamentals in that state simply have not moved. That is all that matters. The state is reporting 44% conservatives in 2016 and 43% in 2018. Not only that but the number who list themselves as extreme conservative is very high, in the 36% range. There are simply not enough soft votes to move.

We can steadily gain in Texas via Hispanic registration but that is a very slow process. Preference always dominates turnout and with 43-44% conservatives the preference can't happen. There has never been a state with 37% conservatives or above vote Democratic on presidential terms since I started following this in 1992.

I'm sure there are many great Texans working hard to turn the state. It is a great investment but right now the timetable is not being logically evaluated. Beto is not receiving enough credit for how amazingly close he made that race, despite a 43-22 gap between conservatives and liberals.

The bounce tendency is well known and applied by gamblers in all realms. The public never understands it because they always want a known trend to persist in the same direction.