Messina Says Sanders Can't Beat Trump

[Gothmog]

I agree with Jim Messina on this https://politicalwire.com/2019/04/17/messina-says-sanders-cant-beat-trump/

Jim Messina, who managed Barack Obama’s re-election campaign in 2012, told ABC News that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) cannot beat President Trump in 2020.

Said Messina: “I think if you look at swing voters in this country they are incredibly focused on the economy. I think today you look at it and say that Bernie Sanders is unlikely going to be able to stand up to the constant barrage that is Donald Trump on economic issues.”

[WeekiWater]

1. I would put some weight behind his words. He is an analytical person and knows the electorate.

He really doesn't care who he works for as long as he is getting paid. I don't think he is currently on anyone's staff.

[qazplm135]

2. I'm not going to predict Sanders "cannot" beat Trump

I think any candidate could beat Trump.

What I will say is that I think Sanders will have way more difficulty doing so than his fans believe. Particularly since they are convinced he would do the best against Trump.

I am not so convinced.

But saying he "cannot" beat Trump is going too far the other way.

[Gothmog]

4. If the economy is strong, trump can win

I have seen similar studies. It is not a given that trump is beatable in 2020. If the economy is in good shape, then there are models and studies that show that trump can win. Obama left trump with a great economy and trump may not screw up the Obama economy before 2020 and get re-elected.

Link to tweet

I am not counting on the Obama economy faltering and so I am worried. We have to defeat trump

Trump could prove these models wrong by being the biggest asshole in history. Again, historically presidents tend to be re-elected if the economy is in good shape at the time of the re-election and even trump may not e able to screw up the Obama recovery

We need to work even harder to defeat trump

[qazplm135]

8. those economic models

assume a normal or within the range of normal President.

If Trump were even just on the low end of normal, I concur, with the economy being what it is, his election is more likely than not.

But he's so far off normal, that he's busting the trend.

so I simply do not see him winning in a "blowout."

Can he win in another squeaker? Sure. Probably going to require a different collection of states though. I don't think he wins Michigan again. PA is going to be tough too. WI he might still pick up.

[Gothmog]

9. A U.S. recession looks less likely in 2020, boosting Trump's chances of reelection

Link to tweet

[qazplm135]

11. see above

not really a fan of repeating myself so...

[Gothmog]

12. I do not want to see trump re-elected because we put up a weak unelectable nominee

There are posters who believe that we can nominate the most liberal/socialist nominee as possible and that candidate will easily win because everyone hates trump. It is their position that this is a historic opportunity to nominate someone would otherwise not be electable. This theory is wrong in that most POTUS are re-elected if the economy is good. Here is a scary study that shows this

Link to tweet

There are good reasons to doubt this study

Link to tweet

I do not believe that trump is assured of winning. If we want to win, Democrats need to nominate a strong nominee who is NOT too far out of the mainstream

[qazplm135]

16. I think any of our candidates

can win OR lose. It's going to be tight regardless.

Do I think Sanders is one of our weaker options? Yes.
Could I be wrong? Yes.
Is it way too early to worry about anything because 100 things are going to happen between now and the shaping of the field? Yes.

[Gothmog]

19. I want to beat trump badly and I fear that the economy may help him

There was inverted yield curve earlier and that could point to a recession that would kill trump. trump may yet screw up the Obama recovery but I would not county on it.

I think that Biden may be the better match against trump if the issue is the economy because the data shows that the economic expansion started under the Obama administration and has become weaker under trump.

I am also considering strongly Harris, Booker, Beto, and Warren

[Me.]

3. He's The Smart Guy In The Room

[m-lekktor]

13. See post #10

[Me.]

22. Please See Post #20

[BeyondGeography]

5. What does Loggins say?

[BlueFlorida]

6. Having Messina say it is nice

but ... I'm sure a 3 year old with common sense can say it as well.

[TCJ70]

7. Finally finished kicking other, dead threads to the top with this? N/t

[aidbo]

10. Messina says Trump can't beat Clinton.

Link to tweet

?s=20

[BeyondGeography]

14. Lol...can we shut this down now?

And what the hell does, “the constant barrage that is Trump on economic issues,” mean anyway?

[bahrbearian]

17. LOL, why are these people even listened too.

[JI7]

20. he didn't take into account Russian attack on Clinton while supporting trump Sanders and Stein

[workinclasszero]

21. "Messina says Trump can't beat Clinton."

Clearly this guy knows what he's talking about.

Yeah Democrats let's take this losers advise again huh?

What could possibly go wrong??

[jalan48]

15. What about the current leader on DU, Harris. Can she beat Trump?

[Lancero]

18. That name sounds familar....

Wait, wasn't he the guy who jumped ship from US politics to UK politics and then promptly advised Cameron and May into some rather significant losses?

https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2017/06/is-jim-messina-the-worlds-worst-political-consulta.html

Guess he decided to try his hand at US politics again... Anyone notice where his tail is?