The youth vote goes missing in 2020 Democratic primaries

[RandySF]

Youth voter turnout so far in the Democratic primaries is either flat or declining compared with the 2016 primaries.

Why it matters: Sen. Bernie Sanders has based much of his strategy on the hope that he could turn out large numbers of young voters. The apparent decline is bad news for him, but it will also make it more difficult for future-focused issues like climate change to gain political traction.

Context: According to the Harvard Institute of Politics, while raw turnout is up in all 12 of the states with competitive elections, the youth vote has only risen in four states, and is flat in two other states.

Of the 14 states that held primaries on Super Tuesday, participation by voters younger than 30 didn't exceed 20% in any state, according to exit poll analyses.

Young voters have always turned out at lower percentages than their older counterparts. But in Sanders, young Americans had a candidate who is explicitly pushing for their support — yet so far it hasn't seemed to matter.

Yes, but: Some experts suggest that the picture isn't as bad as it looks.



https://www.axios.com/youth-vote-2020-democratic-primaries-db5dbbf3-1295-44ae-9d2a-2283c06fbf02.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic

[Sloumeau]

1. RandySF, thanks for posting this! :)

Not enough young voters are buying what Bernie is selling.

[MineralMan]

2. It's easy to get the youngest voting demographic excited

about things, but much harder to get them to vote. That's not new, though. Remembering back to the late 1960s, I remember trying to get people who turned out for anti-war protests to register to vote. I was involved in organizing some of those protests in the DC area and elsewhere, and part of my mission was to register people to vote.

Back then, people couldn't vote until they were 21. So it wasn't the 18-29 demographic. It was the 21-30 demographic we were targeting. Not college students, mostly, except in their last year or two of college. But, even those who were eligible to vote couldn't be bothered with the mechanics of registration and actually going to a polling place.

You'd think it would have changed over time, but it hasn't really. Younger people are easy to motivate into coming to a large gathering where there were hordes of other people in the same age group. They still are easy to motivate in that way. But, getting them to make a commitment to participate in an actual election is still as difficult now as it was then.

I didn't understand it then. I voted in California via absentee ballot in 1966 and again in 1968. I was in the USAF at the time, and requesting and sending an absentee ballot back was a pain in the butt. But I did it, because...well...civic duty and stuff like that. Most of my fellow USAF acquaintances didn't, though. Too much trouble.

In 1968, I was in the DC area, while still in the USAF. My attempts to register eligible protesters to vote were disturbingly unsuccessful. I couldn't understand it at all. But, that was how it was and, apparently still is. Now, though the 18-21 set are part of the mix, but they don't like to actually vote either.

Some do of course, just like some did in the 60s. Not enough, though.

Now I'm an old man and young people don't listen to me at all. But, many did not when I was a peer, either.

Bernie Sanders has a great attraction for many young people. That's wonderful, but they're still not voting, and that cuts into his chances in 2020, just as it did in 2016, when nobody even brought registration forms to his rallies to hand out, I remember.

So, the 18-29 set is excited about Bernie Sanders, and shows up at his rallies to cheer him on. A majority of that age group, though, doesn't follow through by voting for him, or for anyone, actually. More's the pity.

[Funtatlaguy]

3. Before November, Dems must address this problem.

Assemble a panel of 18-29 year olds and get their ideas on how to improve turnout.
Then implement that plan and hire that age group to execute it.

[RandySF]

5. We had this issue in the 2017, 2018 and 2019 primaries

Young people skipped the primaries but showed up for the general.

[Happy Hoosier]

4. Bernie promises they will show up in November.

By magic, I guess?

[karynnj]

6. He might by right, but think what that means

The main force motivating people in the general election will be TRUMP. Even if we had z nominee 100 times as charismatic as Obama, that would likely be true.

The second thing it means is that many had no or limited vested interest in which Democrat will win the primary.

As to the general election, I think turn out in the 2018 General Election might be the best indicator.