Poll: Biden has double-digit lead over Dem field in Iowa

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

A new poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a commanding lead over the field of Democratic contenders in the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa.

The survey from Monmouth University finds Biden with 27-percent support, followed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) at 16 percent.

No other candidate pulls double-digit support, but South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg continues his impressive rise in the polls with a third-place showing at 9-percent support.

Rounding out the field are Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass) and Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) at 7 percent, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) at 6 percent, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) at 4 percent and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) at 3 percent.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/438430-poll-biden-has-double-digit-lead-over-dem-field-in-iowa

[Demsrule86]

1. Excellent.

[Cha]

2. Kick for Biden lead!

[BlueStater]

3. Those numbers will sink when (if?) he starts running.

Once he detaches himself from Obama's coattails, people will be reminded why they had zero enthusiasm for his previous two campaigns.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

4. Historically, that's been Biden's pattern. We don't know if he's even running...

though I expect him to and HOPE he does. Once Joe's moderate record is properly vetted, of the remaining candidates, Bernie's progressive agenda will compare the most favorably, and I expect Bernie's poll numbers, with him being a frontrunner, to only increase.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Demsrule86]

6. Too many negatives. Same issue as last time ...electabiliity.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

10. Yes I agree w/ you, that's a problem 4 Joe given the last 2 times he ran...no question, youre right!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Demsrule86]

17. I actually mean Sanders...never thought he could win a general.

I think Biden will win the nomination.

[Demsrule86]

5. We will see.

[JI7]

8. his support is not based on enthusiasm. it's based on them seeing him as ready to be president

on day 1.

it probably has more to do with trump since people see a lot of cleaning up will have to be done.

it's not just a change in admin and party .

but others will have a chance to prove themselves .

[BlueStater]

13. That was an extremely lameass swipe.

Also doesn't remotely take away from my original point that Biden did horrible in both previous elections he ran in.

[BannonsLiver]

15. Well you sort of walked into it

I like Inslee fine but your point doesn’t seem to hold up looking at real world data.
Also, the circumstances of both his ‘88 and 2008 runs are vastly different. We’ll see what happens, but I’ll bet if he runs Biden ends up with more wins and delegates than Inslee. Sorry about the snark though.

[BlueStater]

16. It was cheap and didn't have a damn thing to do with my point.

Inslee didn't run in 1988 or 2008. Biden did, his name recognition back then was still higher then than Inslee's is now, and yet he bombed.

Inslee's low polling can be blamed on the fact that he isn't a household name. What's Biden excuse for why he did so awful in 2008? He might not have been a former VP back then, but he was still a very well known senator who ran for president once before. Yet his campaign went nowhere and he was forced to drop out after a dismal performance in Iowa.

I'd say that reflects worse on Biden than it does Inslee by a great deal.

[Demsrule86]

18. He was VP for eight years.he will run with stature.

[Demsrule86]

20. He became the VP.

[Demsrule86]

21. He won't detach himself. Why would he? He will run for and win Obama's third term.

And the same voters who voted for Hillary will make it happen.

[BlueStater]

24. He's not Obama. He's his own person with his own record.

Once people are able to see past his connection to the Obama years and look at him as his own entity, I do not believe he's going to fare all that well.

[Gothmog]

7. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available

[marylandblue]

9. "Electable" is a meaningless criteria.

It's basically a stand in for something like "best resume," "least objectionable," or "best polling at the moment." But what the something is, is never stated, so you are just assuming that people want whatever you think they want.

So what do you think they want, what evidence do you have that they want it, and why do you think your candidate has those things?

[Gothmog]

12. Electablity is a key factor in this race

This is the only criterion that matters. If we nominate a weak or too far left candidate, we will have four more years of trump. If trump does not destroy the Obama economy by election time, the can be re-elected if the party selects a weak or unelectable candidate

There are credible economic studies that show that trump will win if the economy is good in 2020. It is not a given that trump is beatable in 2020. If the economy is in good shape, then there are models and studies that show that trump can win. Obama left trump with a great economy and trump may not screw up the Obama economy before 2020 and get re-elected.

Link to tweet

I am not counting on the Obama economy faltering and so I am worried. We have to defeat trump

Trump could prove these models wrong by being the biggest asshole in history. Again, historically presidents tend to be re-elected if the economy is in good shape at the time of the re-election and even trump may not e able to screw up the Obama recovery

We need to work even harder to defeat trump

[marylandblue]

14. So "electability" is a stand in for "moderate." nt

[Demsrule86]

19. The method to beat Trump runs through the rustbelt. This is why Biden and Ryan .

have the best chance...WI,PA and MI. We could maybe get Ohio also.

[onetexan]

28. Well said

[Gothmog]

27. Biden is the most electable candidate right now

While I am undecided, I do think that Joe Biden is the most electable candidate.

Link to tweet

Biden has been in the public eye since the 1970s, and unlike Hillary Clinton, who claimed the public never really knew her, voters feel like they know Biden pretty darn well. Many voters don’t remember anything before his vice presidency, his demonstrably warm relationship with President Barack Obama, his remarkable dignity after the death of his beloved son Beau, and his emotional goodbye to the late senator John McCain. He has established a level of emotional intimacy with voters that few politicians attain. He’s the chatty next-door neighbor, the avuncular relative and the co-worker who remembers everyone’s birthday.....

They are also unlikely to decide he’s not progressive enough. Being vice president to the most progressive president we’ve had (including his role in seemingly pushing Obama forward on gay marriage) has its advantages. Moreover, the media periodically lapses into the delusion that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are representative of the entire party.

The recent Monmouth poll of Iowa voters is instructive: Biden not only leads, but has a 78 percent favorability rating and support from the kind of Democrats who show up in primaries — moderate, older voters. Biden has support from 44 percent of seniors and 35 percent of self-described moderate and conservative Democrats. Among lower income/working-class voters whom Democrats have been desperate to attract, he gets 38 percent. Those kind of voters — not self-identified socialists, not Bernie activists on social media — are numerous and dependable voters. And they’re not exactly the kind to punish him for hugging people in distress.

The most important hurdle for Biden and for his competitors will be convincing voters he can beat President Trump. Right now, Biden has a big advantage. “While issue positions are important to Iowa Democrats, the overwhelming majority (64%) prefer to have a nominee who would be strong against Trump even if they disagree with that candidate on most issues,” the pollsters found. “If they were forced to choose, just 24% say they would favor a candidate who they are aligned with on the issues even if that person would have a hard time beating Trump. Biden garners more support among voters who prioritize beating Trump (33%) than he does among those who are looking for issue alignment (15%).”

I agree with the premise of this piece. I know Joe Biden and I like Joe Biden. The polling indicates that Joe is the most electable candidate.

[marylandblue]

29. Well you have a different implicit definition of electability which is part of my point.

But you at least you have some data to back up your point. Others seem to be saying moderation makes electability. For you, it sounds like likability and Obama's coattails make for electability, but being a moderate doesn't matter.

I agree that ability to beat Trump is important, but how I assess that may be different from other people. It's inevitable that Trump will spare no effort to drive Biden's negatives up and split the opposition. Some Democrats will help Trump with this. I'm not convinced that personal likability this early in the cycle will be enough to protect him.

[Gothmog]

31. We need to beat trump

I am basing my determination of the best polling data including likeability scores. I really do not believe that sanders is electable

As for Mayor Pete, I am keeping my eyes open. To me, he is young and not ready. South Bend is only a town. I would not want the mayor of the larger town that is near me to run for POTUS. Booker was the mayor of an actual city and a Senator (I was also at the state party fundraiser where we made Booker a honorary Texan-he gives a great speech). If you want youth, Beto does a great job and is a great campaigner. Castro was both mayor of a real city and a member of Obama's cabinet.

It is early in the process which is why I have not selected a candidate yet. There are several candidates who I am looking at. I also like Senator Harris as well as Joe, Beto, Booker, Castro and perhaps Klobuchar. So far I have made donations to Beto, Castro and Waren. I am no hurry to settle on one candidate yet.

[marylandblue]

32. Having actual reasons is good.

Last edited Fri Apr 12, 2019, 08:53 PM - Edit history (1)

I've lived in or near multiple cities that had higher populations than many states and I did not want any of them to run for President and knew they would fail if they did. Some of them actually did consider running, but fortunately they didn't.

I am looking for a good campaigner, so I would consider O'Rourke and few others as people I would consider as an alternative to Buttigieg.

I recognize that Buttigieg has a non-traditional resume, is gay and is very young. My consideration of Buttigieg is based off what I think is the big takeaway of 2016. Age, resume, negative characteristics or any other usual criteria do not matter at this time. Hence we got Trump.

To beat him, we need to have a candidate that actually understands Trump and the Trump phenomenon and knows how to counter him. Experience is worthless, we've never had a President like Trump, so nobody has relevant experience. Likability isn't important because people who hated Trump voted for him anyway. Also, Hillary was once more likable before she actual ran.

Polls at this stage aren't important because people change their mind, and in particular, they change their mind in response to Trumpian attacks. He rarely misses as 17 experienced, better qualified candidates found out.

I am interested in Buttigieg because he appears to understand Trump and has a strategy for dealing with him. I base this on listening to him and reading his tweets. He is one of only a few Democrats who understand Trump. The others are Sanders, because he is a lot like Trump, and Pelosi, who either is a natural people reader or has done some homework.

My understanding of Buttigieg is based on some knowledge of how the media works or doesn't work(I don't work in media, but I know people who do); my personal experience of dealing with a malignant narcissist much like Trump; readings in social science relevant to our current situation; and articles written by an Italian professor who compared Trump to Silvio Berlusconi and advised Americans on how to deal with him.

Based on all that, I had long ago concluded what someone would have to do to defeat Trump, and so far Buttigieg is the only one doing it. It accounts for his improbable rise, and it is working better than I expected.

[Gothmog]

34. I live in what is now a purple part of Texas

I have been active in politics for a very long time and have seen my county turn blue due to some hard work. I volunteer a great deal of time on voter protection efforts and have been running war rooms for several cycles. It has taken some hard work but Texas is turning blue ahead of the schedule based on pure demographic trends. I was a delegate to the national convention which takes years of work to earn. I have good contacts with the state party and a couple of good sources for what is going on at the state level. I usually have good reasons for my opinions (most lawyers believe this even if it is not true).

Again as of now, I am still officially undecided. There are a ton of Clinton national delegates who are supporting Senator Harris (we keep in contact on a private face book page). I met Beto at the National Convention and got to hear him early on during the early part of 2017 in a very small setting. Beto did a great job in moving Texas blue. I have met both Castro brothers at a number of events and I was at two different town halls where we tried to convince Joaquin to run against Abbot (I have heard that the Castro brothers now regret not running in 2018).

I just do not have a good feeling as to the viability of Mayor Pete. I am concerned that we need someone who can deal with trump and for me that is Biden based in large part on the polling that I have seen and talking to people in the state party. I really like Joe and I kept one of the floor signs from his speech at the national convention in part because I really like Joe as a person. The polling right confirms my opinion but I am flexible.

Time will tell. Texas may be a battleground this cycle and it would be fun to see a real fight. We need 9 state house seats to flip the Texas House of Representatives and I have friends who are signed up for two of the seats that are being targeted. The DCCC has six Texas congressional seats and I am working on one of these campaigns (we had 300+ at the kick off event last Saturday). We may have an actual primary for Senate seat to go after Cornyn which is wild in that 2014 we had a doctor run because he could self fund to some degree.

[Demsrule86]

22. +++1000000

[Indygram]

23. I actually think Beto is the most electable

1) Incredible positive charisma
2) Ability to bring in the green
3) Freshly vetted and a proven ability to survive
4) Real chance of delivering Texas, which Trump NEEDS to have any hope
5) Doesn't attack fellow Democrats, so can unite all factions
6) Genuine, listener, can connect
7) Possesses the ability to explain controversial things in a way people can relate to.
8) Excellent at answering difficult questions on the fly in an honest, sincere and balanced way.
9) Will not scare moderates away.
10) Traffics in HOPE, not hate.

[Gothmog]

25. I like Beto also and I am from Texas

The Texas Democratic state Party thinks that Texas will be in play this cycle and if Beto is on the ticket, Texas could flip to blue. Time will tell

[marylandblue]

30. If Trump needs to win Texas, he will spend a lot of time in Texas

making fun of Beto and making crap up What will Beto when Trump mocks him? Can't be ignored and wrestling in the mud just gets you both durty.

[stonecutter357]

26. K&R

[David__77]

33. I wonder if he will run.

I have liked Biden. I have appreciated his frankness; for instance, I recall when he spoke out about Turkey's role in support terrorists in Syria, for instance: https://www.apnews.com/fde2544c00514577882d1b2eecdf0151

I have the sense that many people may like what they perceive to be Biden's honesty. I think he would probably make a fine candidate and have a great shot at defeating Trump.

I had hoped that he would run last time. I wonder if he will actually run this time.