Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(49,004 posts) Fri Mar 6, 2020, 11:53 AM Mar 2020

538 just updated its primary forecast. Biden with 88% chance of winning majority of delegates!

Bernie Sanders is now down to a 2% chance in their forecast.

10% chance of no one having a majority.

Link to tweet

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

24 replies

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538 just updated its primary forecast. Biden with 88% chance of winning majority of delegates! (Original Post) highplainsdem Mar 2020 OP

for the first time in four years i feel theres finally an end to trump* samnsara Mar 2020 #1

He'll lose to Biden's coalition. Did you see this OP that I posted yesterday? highplainsdem Mar 2020 #9

Current delegate estimate: Biden 2290, Sanders 1476 highplainsdem Mar 2020 #2

Bernie will convince all the Super Delegates to support comradebillyboy Mar 2020 #13

Thanks to Sanders, superdelegates don't get to even vote on the first ballot anymore... W_HAMILTON Mar 2020 #16

Wow thats a huge haul onetexan Mar 2020 #18

I've been waiting for them to update their predictions - they've been holding off until today. George II Mar 2020 #3

I've been checking regularly but had checked only once earlier today. Ran across Silver's tweet highplainsdem Mar 2020 #4

Sweet music to my ears. William769 Mar 2020 #5

Mine, too. highplainsdem Mar 2020 #12

If that holds, Biden will cross 1990 on May 5. If Sanders' word is worth anything at all, LongtimeAZDem Mar 2020 #6

I think he will reach the majority with the May 2 primaries. LiberalFighter Mar 2020 #11

He won't, if history is any guide. It's gonna be deja vue 2016 all over again. brush Mar 2020 #17

Looks like Biden Turin_C3PO Mar 2020 #7

It would help Dems to have this wrapped up ASAP, so we can focus on Trump. highplainsdem Mar 2020 #14

Hear hear! Maribelle Mar 2020 #8

... highplainsdem Mar 2020 #15

BOOM. Happy Hoosier Mar 2020 #10

No one beats sanders Gothmog Mar 2020 #19

We can't rule out Tulsi surging. TexasTowelie Mar 2020 #20

Maybe the Green Party will invite her to run as their candidate. onetexan Mar 2020 #22

Okay by me. I'll go with that. oasis Mar 2020 #21

This makes me smile Gothmog Mar 2020 #23

Steady as you GO JOE! Cha Mar 2020 #24

samnsara

(17,622 posts)

1. for the first time in four years i feel theres finally an end to trump*

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 11:54 AM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,004 posts)

9. He'll lose to Biden's coalition. Did you see this OP that I posted yesterday?

Reply to samnsara (Reply #1)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 12:06 PM

Mar 2020

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287635643

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,004 posts)

2. Current delegate estimate: Biden 2290, Sanders 1476

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 11:57 AM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

comradebillyboy

(10,154 posts)

13. Bernie will convince all the Super Delegates to support

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #2)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 12:24 PM

Mar 2020

him thus thwarting the Dem Establishment once again.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

W_HAMILTON

(7,869 posts)

16. Thanks to Sanders, superdelegates don't get to even vote on the first ballot anymore...

Reply to comradebillyboy (Reply #13)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 01:04 PM

Mar 2020

...which means he doesn't even have that option this time around in this scenario.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

onetexan

(13,043 posts)

18. Wow thats a huge haul

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #2)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 01:25 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

3. I've been waiting for them to update their predictions - they've been holding off until today.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 11:58 AM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,004 posts)

4. I've been checking regularly but had checked only once earlier today. Ran across Silver's tweet

Reply to George II (Reply #3)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 11:58 AM

Mar 2020

while scanning Twitter for tweets about Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

William769

(55,147 posts)

5. Sweet music to my ears.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 11:59 AM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,004 posts)

12. Mine, too.

Reply to William769 (Reply #5)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 12:15 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LongtimeAZDem

(4,494 posts)

6. If that holds, Biden will cross 1990 on May 5. If Sanders' word is worth anything at all,

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 12:01 PM

Mar 2020

he will concede at that point, and start working to rally his supporters for Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LiberalFighter

(50,950 posts)

11. I think he will reach the majority with the May 2 primaries.

Reply to LongtimeAZDem (Reply #6)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 12:14 PM

Mar 2020

And there will be 952 delegates remaining.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

brush

(53,788 posts)

17. He won't, if history is any guide. It's gonna be deja vue 2016 all over again.

Reply to LongtimeAZDem (Reply #6)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 01:18 PM

Mar 2020

He and his followers feel he's entitled to the nomination.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Turin_C3PO

(14,004 posts)

7. Looks like Biden

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 12:02 PM

Mar 2020

has this thing almost wrapped up. Of course, momentum could change but I seriously doubt it at this point.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,004 posts)

14. It would help Dems to have this wrapped up ASAP, so we can focus on Trump.

Reply to Turin_C3PO (Reply #7)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 12:46 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Maribelle

(4,783 posts)

8. Hear hear!

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 12:04 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,004 posts)

15. ...

Reply to Maribelle (Reply #8)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 12:47 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Happy Hoosier

(7,314 posts)

10. BOOM.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 12:07 PM

Mar 2020

That's just gotta crush Bernie's hopes.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Gothmog

(145,321 posts)

19. No one beats sanders

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 01:44 PM

Mar 2020

Link to tweet

?s=20

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TexasTowelie

(112,250 posts)

20. We can't rule out Tulsi surging.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 01:49 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

onetexan

(13,043 posts)

22. Maybe the Green Party will invite her to run as their candidate.

Reply to TexasTowelie (Reply #20)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 02:43 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

oasis

(49,389 posts)

21. Okay by me. I'll go with that.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 01:51 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Gothmog

(145,321 posts)

23. This makes me smile

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 04:57 PM

Mar 2020

Link to tweet

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(297,321 posts)

24. Steady as you GO JOE!

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 6, 2020, 05:07 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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