The Democratic Nomination: It Doesn't Have to be a Long Slog

[brooklynite]

UVA Centr for Politics

With a growing field of about 20 candidates, the lion’s share of which should be able to get on to one of the first two debate stages in Miami in late June, Democrats are gearing up for what could be a very crowded, and very lengthy, presidential nomination battle.

For a number of different reasons, it is possible that the nomination season, held from February to early June 2020, will not determine a winner. Obviously, the field is large. There probably won’t be 20 credible candidates on the ballot in Iowa next February, but there still likely will be a lot. Democratic primaries and caucuses award delegates proportionally, with a 15% threshold for winning delegates. Unlike on the GOP side, there are no winner-take-all states. Those kinds of contests can help winnow a field more than proportional ones do, although the 15% delegate hurdle will have the effect of shutting out weaker candidates. Still, one can imagine perhaps three or four leading candidates emerging and trading victories across the country during the first half of next year, with the primary season ending without a clear victor.

If the nomination season ended without someone winning a majority of pledged delegates, the Democratic National Convention could hypothetically go to a second ballot.

The idea of a contested convention is one that political analysts fantasize about every four years. But most us have never seen one in our lifetimes. The last president who was not nominated on the first ballot at his convention was Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt in advance of his initial victory in 1932. In 1936, the Democrats eliminated a provision that the nominee get at least two-thirds of the convention vote, a rule that contributed to many long nomination fights. The last major party presidential nominee who did not win nomination on the first ballot was Democrat Adlai Stevenson in 1952, the first of his two consecutive (and unsuccessful) presidential bids as the Democratic standard-bearer. So by the time the Democrats meet in Milwaukee in July 2020, it will have been 68 years since a major party presidential nominating convention has gone to a second ballot. (The Pew Research Center in 2016 published a great piece about the history of contested conventions.)

In other words, these things have a way of working themselves out. And it may be that the Democratic race could sort itself out quickly, with the party rallying around a probable nominee relatively early in the process. This would be akin to John Kerry’s victory in 2004, when he became the presumptive nominee in early March after knocking out his last remaining major rival, John Edwards (and Kerry was in a commanding position even before then in a race that started in mid-January, as opposed to the February start expected next year). That stands in contrast to 2008 and 2016, long slogs where the eventual winner became clear fairly early (Barack Obama in 2008 and Hillary Clinton in 2016) but where the eventual runner-up stayed in the race for the entirety of the primary season.

[democratisphere]

1. This whole Presidential Primary process could be streamlined

where all states vote in Presidential primaries on the same day and corrupt caucuses are replaced with primary voting. Have a set number of debates over a shorter period of time, then primary vote. This almost 2 year primary process is a joke.

[brooklynite]

2. If THAT was the case, you'd bias the outcome...

...to candidates with the resources to campaign nationwide, primarily on TV.

As unrepresentative as they may be, there's value to the early grassroots campaigning that goes on in Iowa, NH, SC and Nevada.

[democratisphere]

3. Almost a 2 year process?!

It approaches insanity, which I am starting to believe all politics is.

[dsc]

5. I am fine with that but think the mix of states should change or at least the order

Iowa and New Hampshire are both way whiter than the country let alone our party. Other than Nevada none of these states have any substantial cities. It isn't just a concern that they will pick only white candidates (which they pretty much did until Obama) but that their concerns are not aligned with the concerns of the majority of our party voters.

[LongtimeAZDem]

4. I have to disagree; there are merits to a race, where lesser-known candidates build momentum

Having all primaries on one day would hand the nomination to the one polling the highest at that moment. Even though that would be the one I support in this case, I think it further turns it into a beauty contest.

I would like to see reforms to the current system, such as a lottery system for primary assignment each time to eliminate the stranglehold some states have developed.