Sanders predicts race will be 'neck and neck' once California is counted

[Uncle Joe]

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) predicted he and former Vice President Joe Biden would be "neck and neck" in the presidential race after the delegates from Tuesday night's California primary are counted.

“I haven’t seen the latest delegate count, but my guess is that after California is thrown into the hopper, it’s going to be pretty close. We may be up by a few, Biden may be up by a few, but I think we go forward basically neck and neck,” Sanders said at a press conference at his campaign headquarters in Burlington, Vt.

Sanders’s remarks came after a decisive victory in California’s primary, which rewards 415 pledged delegates, the most of any state. However, the actual delegate breakdown from the gargantuan primary is not expected to be determined for days or even weeks — the Golden State is notorious to taking time to tally its votes, in part because of the sheer size of its contest.

While Sanders posted big numbers in California, Biden ran up the score across the South and secured victories in states he was not anticipated to win, such as Massachusetts, Minnesota and Texas. The former vice president won by big margins in Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Virginia, while Sanders also took Colorado, Utah and Vermont.

(snip)

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485987-sanders-predicts-race-will-be-neck-and-neck-once-california-is-counted

[bluewater]

1. He's right, you know.

[democrattotheend]

15. Exactly

And I don't think it's right to write him off just because he underperformed what, IMO, were always inflated expectations going into Super Tuesday. If you recall, Obama didn't do as well as many predicted on Super Tuesday either, and he went on to win the nomination, though he didn't take quite the shellacking in the media because he was still considered a bit of an underdog at that point so fighting Hillary to a draw was enough to keep from completely losing the momentum.

That said, the map going forward is going to be tough for Bernie. It seems like there is a ceiling on his support, though I think it's possible that going back to being the underdog might actually help him because it's a role he's more used to playing and it may motivate his supporters more. I wouldn't count him out just yet.

[Meadowoak]

2. Bernie will be slightly ahead. When they add the delegates from CA.

[TwilightZone]

6. Probably not.

Biden is up by 65.

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/10/799979293/how-many-delegates-do-the-2020-presidential-democratic-candidates-have

There are 144 delegates left to award in CA, so Sanders would have to receive 66 more than Biden to take the lead, which works out to 105 for Sanders and 39 for Biden. With late voting, that's highly unlikely to happen. In fact, Biden may pick up more of the remaining 144 than Sanders, which would expand his lead.

[still_one]

10. What they seem to ignore is the 5 or 6 states where Biden had 50-60% of the vote, and that

that translates to a significant number of delegates.

Except in a couple of states, Sanders averaged about 30-35%, which means a fairly good split of the delegates to those who exceeded the 15% threshold

It also ignores the fact that if Bloomberg wasn't in the race, Biden would have tied or equaled Sanders in California.

It is sad that how delegates are allocated is willfully ignored by some, and conveys misinformation

[TwilightZone]

17. I think a lot of people think in simple terms of wins and losses, not understanding how it works.

Some Sanders supporters on DU don't even seem to be aware that ballots are still coming in in California, even though it's just like 2016 and it's been pretty well publicized. As you alluded to, I think it's often intentional.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=630296

[still_one]

18. California takes a long time to count, not only because it is large, but they insure that all votes

are counted, including provisionals

[TwilightZone]

19. Which many of us still recall from 2016.

Plus, it received a lot of attention prior to yesterday.

[SergeStorms]

3. And after that?

I hate to see Bernie go down in flames, again, but he has no path to the White House without carrying the south. Black voters just don't trust Bernie with their future, for some reason, and without the Black vote Bernie is going nowhere. The number of states that favor Biden over Bernie are too much to overcome. Georgia, Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, and right now it's looks like Michigan as well - all delegate rich - in all likelihood will go to Biden. Bernie's back is against the wall.

[DownriverDem]

4. Oh boo

I truly believe that Biden can win enough states to beat trump.

[beachbumbob]

5. after losing about every state he was suppose to win? LOL

[Progressive2020]

7. The Media

The media loves a good comeback story, and Biden certainly is that. I do think Sanders is right, though. The race is too close to call right now, and the battle continues, albeit now as a two person contest between Bernie and Joe.

It has been mentioned that Joe holds the keys to the African American vote, especially in the South, that will be needed to defeat Trump in November. I think that this is the strongest argument for Biden's electability that I have seen so far. And it is not just Joe's strength with African Americans. It is Bernie's lack of strength with those demographics.

So the battle continues. I am feeling a little exhausted by it, and sort of wish it were already over. It is such a political marathon in our country. I really wish that we had a shorter election cycle, maybe one National Primary, winner take all. The campaigning never ends. And I imagine that it is tough on the candidates and their staff and volunteers.

Anyway, whatever happens, I hope that we can get together and unite against Trump and beat him decisively in November.

[still_one]

8. It really is sad that many do not seem to understand how delegates are allocated. First of all it

should be realized that if Bloomberg wasn't in the race, Biden most likely would have won or tied the California primary. This isn't rocket science, but the facts. With 90% of the vote in:


Sanders: 33.6%
Biden: 24.9%
Bloomberg: 14.30%
Warren: 12%

and simple addition makes it obvious.

The problem Sanders has, except in a couple of states he was unable to garner more than 30-35% of the vote within the Super Tuesday State primaries.

Biden on the other hand had 5 or 6 states where he exceeded 50%, and that is a big deal, and represents a lot of delegates, even against a worst case scenario for Biden in California.

When the final counts are in, Biden will be about 50 to 60 delegates ahead after Super Tuesday, and that is a significant lead

[Progressive2020]

9. I Agree

I agree with your analysis and that conventional wisdom is that Joe will have the lead, and can not be caught in upcoming primaries by Bernie. That said, in recent years conventional wisdom has not worked. In 2016, it was conventional wisdom that Hillary would beat Trump.

After the recent Nevada Caucus, conventional wisdom was that Bernie was the front-runner. Now that has been disproven by Joe Biden. Does Biden lead, and is his lead insurmountable? If I had to bet on it, I would say yes. Yet the political skeptic in me says it ain't over until it is over.

[still_one]

13. All I am saying is that Super Tuesday by any standard was a defeat for Sanders. What happens in the

subsequent primaries remains to be seen.

[Progressive2020]

16. I Think

I think that is a reasonable point and is correct. Based upon expectations, Super Tuesday was a defeat for Sanders. It was just not quite a decisive defeat. Sanders made a strong enough showing in California to prevent Biden from being able to say that the contest is over.

Sanders is still alive and in the game, but Biden is clearly the leader at this point. Is it possible for Sanders to come back and win in the remaining contests? My feeling is that it is possible, but not likely. This was the penultimate contest, I think. The fight continues.

[honest.abe]

11. Weren't they predicting a huge lead after ST??

Neck and neck sounds like a massive fail.

[SidDithers]

12. #Berniemath...nt

Sid

[NurseJackie]

14. Time to dust this off again...

[W_HAMILTON]

20. The problem is that just "neck and neck" is bad for Sanders.

The remaining states out there aren't very friendly to him.

Back in 2016, he always had California later in the process so that he could point to it and say that he could make up any deficit with a resounding win there. Now, California is off the table. There are no other Californias out there for him.

Buttigieg was running "neck and neck" with Sanders after the first two contests as well, but everyone saw that there was trouble on the horizon for him given that the upcoming contests weren't as favorable to him based on the electorate in those states. The same thing is now happening to Sanders.