538's forecast now has Sanders with only a 1 in 5 chance of having the majority of delegates

[highplainsdem]

by the time we get to the convention. There's a 2/3 chance of a brokered convention. Sanders's current forecast national delegate lead as of their last update at 8:38 AM ET is less than 200, 1619 to 1426 for Biden.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

Doesn't look like Sanders will get a huge advantage in delegates out of California. 538 is currently estimating that Sanders will get 186, Biden 125, Warren 60, and Bloomberg 42.

So much for earlier predictions that Sanders will have such a huge win in CA that no other candidate will get any delegates, leaving him with an insurmountable lead.

[honest.abe]

1. If Sanders gains less than a 100 delegates on Biden in CA, that will be considered a massive fail.

Pretty much guaranteeing Sanders will not win on the first ballot. In fact I think ST is going to be a wash with neither candidate gaining much on the other. That would be considered a huge victory for Biden.

[denem]

2. Much will depend on whether Bloomberg or Warren clear 15%.

[empedocles]

3. BS clearly losing ground

[honest.abe]

5. Biden just ticked up to 14% chance with Sanders down to 22%.

Things are changing rapidly.

[TwilightZone]

6. And a 40% chance to not even get a plurality.

I thought that was pretty interesting.

"Sanders is still the favorite to win a plurality of delegates, but those chances dropped slightly too, from 63 percent to 60 percent"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-buttigieg-dropping-out-isnt-good-for-sanders/

[DrToast]

8. It sure would be great if Biden gets a plurality

That would make things easier at the convention.

[TwilightZone]

9. Agreed.

It would also, of course, cause Sanders and his supporters to do a 180. Again.

[Me.]

7. WooHoo