538 now predicts a 3 in 5 chance that no one wins on the first ballot-- caucus-like convention

[andym]

1 in 4 chance for Bernie to win outright
1 in 7 chance for Biden to win outright
less than 1 in 100 chance for any of the others to win outright

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

So what happens is that to a large extent the convention will become like a caucus-- with inviable candidate thresholds etc, on subsequent ballots. There is one difference: superdelegates could play a role as well as on the second ballot there would be 764 (771?) delegates added to the pool-- which would presumably raise the threshold for winning. It might be interesting if superdelegates decided to sit out subsequent rounds, forcing the campaigns and their elected delegates to negotiate.

Updated:
1991 delegates required on first ballot
2375.5 delegates required on second ballot
source: ballotpedia
https://ballotpedia.org/Superdelegates_and_the_2020_Democratic_National_Convention
are these numbers correct?

[Moderateguy]

1. The threshold starting on the second ballot is 2345

[andym]

2. OK that makes sense-- the first ballot threshold is 1991

so the superdelegates do raise the requirement.

[Laelth]

3. That's exactly what I said.

Here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287605395

-Laelth

[andym]

5. Your independent analysis is very much in tune with 538.

Impressive.

[Politicub]

4. 538 has been a hot mess for years

I think it's only there as clickbait now.