Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumHuh, despite SC, it seems Sanders is still the frontrunner!
Huh.
Biden 51
Buttigieg 26
Warren 8
Klobuchar 7
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/delegate-count
Looking at Nevada and SC we can see why this is.
While Biden had a great SC Primary getting 77% of the assigned delegates, Sanders also had a big win in Nevada where he got 66% of the delegates.
Sanders 24 <--- 66% of Nevada Delegates.
Biden 9
Buttigieg 3
Biden 36 <-- 77% of SC delegates
Sanders 11
What does this mean going forward?
Well, Biden will obviously do well in states where African Americans make up 50-60% of the total primary voters.
In more demographically balanced states, his advantage will be less.
Sanders seems to over perform with Latinx voters, as shown by his win in Nevada. The SC primary exit polls show that Latinos made up only 2% of the voters yesterday, and that affected Sanders totals there.
On Super Tuesday, the electorates in the primary rich states of Texas and California more closely resemble Nevada than South Carolina, so expect Sanders to do well there.
But Arkansas, Alabama and North Carolina will have a large % of voters be African American, so Biden should perform well in those states.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/winning-super-tuesday-without-winning-states/ar-BB10AC07
Overall, I expect that Sanders will increase his lead in delegate on Super Tuesday significantly.
Time will tell.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
IluvPitties
(3,181 posts)People are realizing Bernie is selling stuff most Americans will not want to buy. Expect Super Tuesday to be better than expected for Joe.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)where the polls are likely overestimating Bernie's strength.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)quite so possible two weeks ago. A murky vista has sprung into clarity.
This will significantly change events moving forward.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
totodeinhere
(13,058 posts)Biden, even after yesterday doesn't have enough money to adequately compete in big media heavy places like Texas and California. And with early voting in many of these states, many votes were already cast before the S.C. results were known.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bucolic_frolic
(43,248 posts)before it's too late
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MrsCoffee
(5,803 posts)Super Tuesday is gonna be a rough day for Sanders and his supporters.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Joe should win the purple and red smaller states, but it will be in Cali where he seriously damages Sanders' campaign.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
onetexan
(13,051 posts)The momentum has picked up and it's full steam ahead. So has the contributions and senatorial support.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)That is a huge downside for Bernie. My guess is Biden's poll numbers are way low and Bernie's overinflated.
A lot of Bernie supporters are talking up the Latino Bernie vote based upon NV results. Someone pointed out that SC Latinos went significantly for Biden. In 2016, Hillary was weak in NV among Latinos and Asians, but smoked Bernie in Cali, the reason maybe that either Cali Latinos are more moderate, or large numbers of them are NPP voters that can't pull a party presidential ballot.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
onetexan
(13,051 posts)only candidate who advertised in NV. Combined with a ground GOTV effort by the Bernie camp they did have a high Latino turnout. BUT i do think in CA & TX Latinos and elsewhere they will prefer Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)It is the same thing as Unaffiliated in Florida, with the same result for presidential primary races, the "no party" voters can't vote. A lot of NPP people likely don't realize that they can't vote in the presidential primary, though the polls are capturing them like they can.
The Sanders campaign is complaining about NPP voters not being able to pull a party ballot, but he has been basically running for close to 3 and a half years, he should have had contingencies to inform those people to register as democrats by the deadline. His campaign seems to want to change existing systems to meet the Sanders campaigns particular interests at a point in time.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
onetexan
(13,051 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)vote on non partisan candidates and issues, and of course, they can vote on everything in November.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OnDoutside
(19,965 posts)non-registered voters being able to vote in a Democratic primary (well i sort of get that the parties don't want to alienate independent voters, but i think it's asking for trouble).
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)to cast a vote in the Democratic Party primary, so in light of that, what is the Sanders camp complaining about? Do they want a fully open primary just for our party?
Florida is closed, if Indies don't register into the Democratic Party, their ballot is non-partisan only.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)The question is, can he clear 50% on the first ballot? That will be much harder for him. He's been such a divisive candidate that there's no way he'd draw much support from other candidates' delegates on a second vote.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Polls in California likely are dramatically underestimating Biden, like they did Hillary in 2016. Asians are very large in Cali not so much in NV, that favors Biden. Plus the NPP voters can't pull a presidential primary ballot, that again favors Biden big.
In Texas, the big cities have abundant AA vote, that should pull Biden to the top in Texas, my belief is AA voters in Texas got their clue from SC and will turn out big for Biden.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Super Tuesday be a big disappointment for Bernie.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)Its about a 100 delegate difference.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)seriously overestimated due to the NPP voters not being able to vote in the democratic primary. Polls are most likely capturing their candidate preference because they likely don't know that they can't vote for president. The dynamic is the same as in 2016, here polls underestimated Hillary's strength by around 17-20%, which makes sense given that NPP voters make up over 33% of voters in Cali. My guess, Biden easily passes the 15% threshold and ends up with 33-40% of the vote if Bloomberg doesn't factor in negatively for Biden - if information that people in Cali waited to file their ballots is correct, that is enormous good news for Biden, because if Bernie or Bloomberg were going to get their votes, they would have already filed them.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
totodeinhere
(13,058 posts)And the large Latino vote in Texas might help Bernie over the top in that state. Plus with early voting in many states the results of last night might not provide much momentum when so many had already voted before last night's results were known.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)that was not present in NV. Hispanics in Texas and Cali don't seem to be the same as those in NV, the Cali and Texas Hispanics appear to go back more generations and are more moderate. Asians in Cali (at least the ones that I deal with) are also more moderate. Again, I believe that Biden is going to spring a massive surprise in Cali.
In Texas, all the big cities have large Black populations, led by Houston. It will come down to turnout in those places, if AA turn out like in SC, Biden is going to cruise to a win.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
totodeinhere
(13,058 posts)practicing wishful thinking.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
underpants
(182,858 posts)He could take a bit bite out of Joe in California (I've read that elsewhere).
Joe winning yesterday goes a long way for Super Tuesday - people get behind a winner.
Bernie and Pete made a big splash in Iowa and New Hampshire because of their ground game. Highly motivated volunteers that put in a lot of time and hit every single spot. That's not possible across several states especially not the big ones like CA and Texas.
Bernie just isn't going to sell across large areas. Pete, great guy but sorry no not yet - we just aren't ready for THAT yet. Like it or not this "Socialism" thing is set. I mean Bernie WAS a Socialist at one point. His campaign will always be fighting a head wind. BUT if the Bernie Bros can't accept another loss we could lose a lot of ballast (see Wisconsin in 2016).
Bottom line is if it's Joe or Mike we have to have an AA woman on the ticket. Abrams brings the best turf with her but Kamala sells big time nationally. I mean big time.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)That may be due to Russian efforts or that Hillary chose Tim Kaine instead of someone better known to AA voters. If you take that 1 million and slice it across the dates that Trump barely won, we would be talking about Hillary's reelection campaign now. My guess, this time that 1 million plus a lot more turn out, all indicators (2018, SC yesterday, are pointing to a lot of activation among AA voters).
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
underpants
(182,858 posts)telling everyone everyday that it was over. At least 50% of the explanation for 2016, to me, was the media.
You just aren't going to get turnout numbers near Obama levels. Having a AA woman on the ticket will do a lot of good though.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)I am not sure that we won't see 2008 level turnout among AA, four years of Trump insures that, IMO. The great thing is Trump maxed his vote in 2016, so there is not much upside for him. Also the Bernie or bust vote will likely not be needed with more AA turning out, so our platform should reflect that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)That lead will be reduced after Georgia and Florida vote.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)538 still projects Sanders getting 1700+ delegates.
It seems the longer the primary stays a mult-candidate race, as opposed to a two candidate race, the more that helps Sanders.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)538 shows Sanders at 1645 and Biden at 1352.
As the total pledged delegates are 4051, this makes Bernie at 40% and Biden at 33%.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Seriously. I posted 538's totals in another post less than an hour ago and they had Sanders up by 400 delegates.
But, Yep, it's a 300 delegate lead now.
It will be intersting to see what 538's model projects after Super Tuesday.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)The chance of no one getting a majority.
Sanders obviously needs everyone but him to be non-viable in CA. If its only two, hed rather it be him and Warren. Sanders and Biden being viable would be worse for him, and Sanders, Warren and Biden all being viable statewide would be worst for him.
Biden needs to win the southern primaries. A big help for him would be winning Texas. He also needs Amy to win MN and somehow hope Warren gets MA.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)shifts massively to Biden. Bernie would have used up his best states, except for Oregon, Washington, maybe Michigan, maybe Rhode Island, maybe Indiana and the small population plains states. Biden will have Florida, Georgia, Lousiana, Illinois, NY State, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Conneticutt, Delaware, Maryland, and DC, all which should significantly favor him. If Biden comes out ahead on Super Tuesday, it is over for Bernie.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dsc
(52,166 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)A tie in delegates in NH, then loses in Nevada and SC.
He's not projected to do well on Super Tuesday, but, hey, who knows.
As the old saying goes... "That's why they play the ball games."
Time will tell.
And good luck to you and your preferred candidate on Super Tuesday.
It will be interesting to see if Warren or Buttigieg get more delegates that day, but both are projected to be down in the 3rd and 4th slots.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dsc
(52,166 posts)so just checking for the record.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)But the voting results are what the voting results are.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapucelle
(18,297 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)lol
35% of the total delegates will be assigned that day and VASTLY more people will have voted.
I would be glad to discuss the popular vote on Wednesday, if you would want to.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapucelle
(18,297 posts)of delegates at that point, then nonviable candidates will release their delegates to consolidate around the candidate who can win the majority on the second, or third, or fourth ballot.
Even though superdelegates like BS, Nina Turner, Ocasio Cortez, and Tlaib are unlikely to give their support to Biden (a unity candidate who can beat Trump and protect down ballot Democrats), a broad coalition of Democrats will do the right thing in the best interest of the country.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Vivienne235729
(3,384 posts)That's interesting to watch on the latino vote. Hopefully it woll continue to trend the same way in states w a larger latino population.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)than those in other states. Since Hispanics and Asians in Cali are multi-generational, they will likely be more moderate, same in Texas. I expect Biden to have a very good day on Tuesday.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jimfields33
(15,902 posts)But central will definitely be sanders. North and west Florida not sure.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)I have relatives that live around Orlando, the Black population there is very large, so even if the Hispanics there are more tuned to Bernie, the Black vote will neutralize theirs (I doubt that they favor Bernie since there is a very large number of Cubans in that mix).
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
FloridaBlues
(4,008 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,632 posts)momentum is with Joe...Joementum.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Super Tuesday is in TWO days.
Good luck to all the candidates and their supporters (except Bloomberg).
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapucelle
(18,297 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)But you knew that.
But, tell you what, after Super Tuesday we can discuss popular vote totals that mean something.
35% of the total delegates will be assigned that day and VASTLY more people will have voted.
Good luck to you and our preferred candidate.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapucelle
(18,297 posts)then candidates will release their delegates to consolidate around the candidate who can win the majority on the second, or third, or fourth ballot.
Even though superdelegates like BS, Nina Turner, Ocasio Cortez, and Tlaib are unlikely to give their support to Biden (a unity candidate who can beat Trump and protect down ballot Democrats), a broad coalition of Democrats will do the right thing in the best interest of the country.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)OK...
You are the person that brought up popular vote totals, not me.
lol
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapucelle
(18,297 posts)Last edited Sun Mar 1, 2020, 02:04 PM - Edit history (1)
Let's review:
1. Joe Biden currently has more votes than BS. (i.e. Biden is currently winning in the popular vote.)
2. The candidate with a majority of the delegates will be the eventual nominee.
3. If no candidate has a majority of delegates on the first ballot, coalition-building will be the key to the nomination.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)No problem.
As I said, you were the one that brought up the popular vote totals, not me.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapucelle
(18,297 posts)51. That's not what I'm saying. That's what YOU said.
Let's review:
1. Joe Biden currently has more votes than BS.
2. The candidate with a majority of the delegates will be the eventual nominee.
3. If no candidate has a majority of delegates on the first ballot, coalition-building will be the key to the nomination.
****************************************************************************************
Oh, I see. Some people might not know that "having more votes" is the same thing as "leading in the popular vote". I edited to clarify for anyone who might be confused by the concept.
51. That's not what I'm saying. That's what YOU said.
Let's review:
1. Joe Biden currently has more votes than BS.
2. The candidate with a majority of the delegates will be the eventual nominee.
3. If no candidate has a majority of delegates on the first ballot, coalition-building will be the key to the nomination.
On edit:
Let's review:
1. Joe Biden currently has more votes than BS. (i.e. Biden is currently winning in the popular vote.)
2. The candidate with a majority of the delegates will be the eventual nominee.
3. If no candidate has a majority of delegates on the first ballot, coalition-building will be the key to the nomination.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Seems like you are just tacking that on as item #1 for some reason.
What does the popular vote after just the first four states have to do with the Convention?
Honestly, it seems like you are trying to pivot away from your first popular vote comment.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapucelle
(18,297 posts)about the importance of coalition-building?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)But please, do explain what the popular vote after the first 4 states has to do with the Convention.
I think this is the third time I am asking this question.
I will wait right here.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapucelle
(18,297 posts)Anyone who doesn't understand, should re-read and then think a bit.
No one is entitled to have the obvious clarified over and over without trying harder on their own.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Honestly, that seems like such a stretch that I wanted to be absolutely certain that was the argument you actually tried to make.
Apparently, it is.
Wow.
Hey, opinions are like gall bladders, everyone has one and you are entitled to yours.
Thanks for the discussion.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapucelle
(18,297 posts)he will be the nominee.
Otherwise, it's a brokered convention where coalition-building wil be the key to the nomination.
It's probably at that point that people will finally recognize that iconoclasm and name-calling is a losing platform.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laelth
(32,017 posts)Bernie's five-year-old campaign is well-poised to kick the snot out of even the best one-year-old campaign running against it. He has been courting the Latino vote for years, and it's going to show on Super Tuesday.
For better or for worse ...
-Laelth
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OhZone
(3,212 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
empedocles
(15,751 posts)Not really much of a policy debate.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
uponit7771
(90,348 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brutus smith
(685 posts)Jimmy Carter I believe. 40+ years ago. We will see what happens in states where Dems have won recently.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)1992 (March 7): Bill Clinton (63%), Paul Tsongas (18%), Tom Harkin (7%), Jerry Brown (6%), uncommitted (3%), and others (2%)[8]
1996: Primary cancelled
2000 (March 9): Al Gore (92%) and Bill Bradley (2%)[9]
2004 (February 3): John Edwards (45%), John Kerry (30%), Al Sharpton (10%), Wesley Clark (7%), Howard Dean (5%), and Joe Lieberman (2%)[10]
2008 (January 26): Barack Obama (55%), Hillary Clinton (27%), and John Edwards (18%)[11]
2012 (January 28): Barack Obama (unopposed)
2016 (February 27): Hillary Clinton (73%) and Bernie Sanders (26%)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Carolina_primary
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Odoreida
(1,549 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)...to be the "front runner". Now he's ahead 57 to 53 (7%) so wouldn't that make Biden the "front runner"?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden