Politico: Biden's surprise ray of hope in California

[UncleNoel]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/01/joe-biden-california-primary-118371

Upside for Biden: A huge number of them haven't voted yet. The portion of returned ballots at this stage is much lower than in recent elections — and his campaign is counting on a late surge of support among those holdouts after his dominant performance on Saturday.

By CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO and DAVID SIDERS
03/01/2020 07:00 AM EST

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Despite his weak polling in California, there’s a silver lining emerging for Joe Biden in the biggest delegate prize on the board next week.

Biden’s weakness after a distant second finish in Nevada could have compelled Californians who have been voting since the Iowa caucuses to support a moderate alternative who was doing better at the time. But there's a big upside for Biden: A huge number of them haven't voted yet. The portion of returned ballots at this stage is much lower than in recent elections — and his campaign is counting on a late surge of support among those holdouts after his dominant performance on Saturday.

Paul Mitchell, an elections expert who has tracked the number of returned vote-by-mail California ballots through Friday, told POLITICO he’s seen a significant drop-off among Democratic voters to date from the last two California presidential primaries. And the decline in returned ballots so far is occurring among the most dedicated voters: Those who have participated in the last five elections.

“People in Super Tuesday states and California, in particular, are not returning their ballots yet,” Danielle Cendejas, a Democratic strategist in California whose firm did campaign mail for both of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns. “They’re waiting for a signal, and I think this is a signal. If you were debating between which of the Democrats who aren’t Bernie Sanders or even Elizabeth Warren to throw your hat behind, you’re probably going Joe Biden’s way.”

[zackymilly]

1. After Biden's win last night, it seems the sun is brighter & more birds are singing this morning.

I even think that sparrow that landed on Bernie's podium has switched to Joe.

[FailureToCommunicate]

3. It DOES seem like brighter sun, and more singing birds this morning! But the storm

clouds swirling from Mordor are still blotting out most of the sky.

Report this morning that there are over 300 vacancies at the CDC thanks to Trumps's hiring freeze (among many agencies)

November can't come soon enough!

But, yes, this morning feels good.


Go Joe! https://secure.actblue.com/donate/duforjoe

[MoonRiver]

19. When I woke up this morning and remembered Joe's huge win,

I smiled. Still smiling!

[PatSeg]

36. Same here

And fortunately the sun really IS shining here!

[CaptainTruth]

39. We awoke to singing birds this morning, thanks to our cats...

...one of whom stepped on the TV remote & turned it on ... to an "ambient channel" of pretty video & chirping birds.

[Iliyah]

2. As agitated I get watching cable news . . .

I watched a little on Cnn and MSNBC last night.

An ex-Republican strategist said that California and Texas already voted viva by mail and that South Carolina probably will have very little effect on those states.

So we shall see.

[honest.abe]

6. That is not true.

From what I have read many have voted by mail in CA and TX but not even close to the majority. Furthermore those that did vote by mail were probably those who were firm in their decision and would not be affected regardless. Those that have not voted yet would be more affected by the SC result and other events leading up to ST.

Bottom line.. SC will have a huge impact.

[quaint]

18. Myself and three others here in SoCal waited for SC.

We are old, very left progressive and think we are putting country first by voting for VP Biden.
Mailing today.

[Hortensis]

23. Ah, yes. This really suggests a lot of "wait and sees" like you.

Perfectly understandable. I would have also since getting liberal Democrats in power, and Republicans out, is the overwhelming priority for me.

[redstateblues]

28. I was hinging my Tues vote on Joe's SC performance

I’m thinking a lot of people are the same. I’m sending another 20 this AM. I’m all in. Hopefully lots of people are like Tom Steyer and are putting country over policy differences. Joe is our best hope to best Trump. Go Joe!

[Hortensis]

31. Great and same here. I strongly suspect interference

in the earlier states given the bizarrely quick and extreme poll swings. Sanders couldn't break out of the second tier for a year, with Biden never less than double digits ahead of everyone, and suddenly Sanders was far ahead. Uhuh.

Russia's also been working on creating chaos in our primary, as well as working to make Sanders our nominee, and that's what we had in Iowa. Whatever factors went into kicking off our primaries with that spectacularly hot mess, I think it'd be naive to believe Russia wasn't involved, and probably some domestic enemies as well.

Whatever. SC mostly went the way the whole past year suggests it should have. Notably, Russia's attempts to subvert the AA vote seem to have mostly failed. I'm so grateful.

On to Super Tuesday.

[Moderateguy]

20. The Texas early vote is 6.7% of registered democrats

[honest.abe]

4. I was hoping that was the case.

This is very good news for Biden. Last night changes things dramatically in California and many other states. I suspect most of Bloomberg's support goes to Biden. That will be huge and could result in Biden and Sanders with about the same number of delegates won.

[Mike 03]

7. I'm hoping Bloomberg does this too. He's got an entire ground game in place that

Biden could use.

So far Bloomberg has been a positive force. I don't want him to overstay his welcome and become a negative influence on our best chance to unify.

I think he'll do the right thing, maybe not as quickly as we would like. He's got a lot to think about too.

[honest.abe]

8. I wasnt suggesting that Bloomberg would throw his support to Biden.. although that is possible.

I am just saying that many of those voters who used to be for Bloomberg would now switch to Biden given what has happened in SC.

Bloomberg is certainly a big factor in all of this... bad or good.

[Mike 03]

9. I think you're right about the Bloomberg support going to Biden.

Didn't mean to jump the gun.

At least Biden would accept Bloomberg's help if it were offered.

[honest.abe]

10. No doubt Biden would accept it.

And that would probably be the end of the game.

[Mike 03]

12. ...

[Mike 03]

5. "They're waiting for a signal..."

Just speaking for myself, last night was the signal I was waiting for to shift my support over to Joe.

[chia]

11. CA voter here, I voted by mail ballot weeks ago for Joe Biden

[Progressive dog]

13. That is good news

I hope those missing early voters in California were waiting for a not Bernie favorite before casting their ballot. As much as I like Joe Biden, if I lived in California I would have done that.

[beachbumbob]

14. with bloomberg AND warren blasting sanders, we can see Biden chances are

going up again. Biden may not "win" Texas or Ca but he will get considerable votes and delegates,

[Squinch]

15. Declare Kamala your running mate TODAY, Joe! You'll clean up!

[tavernier]

16. I would agree, but don't you think he should court the lady a little

before putting the ring on her finger?
She has to be assured that he’s doing it for the right reasons, or she could come back with a “no thanks”...

[Squinch]

22. I suspect those conversations have been begun. But we're pregnant now and need to

get ourselves down that aisle!

[tavernier]

29. Alright, alright, LOL!

Sometimes a shotgun wedding is appropriate.


(Ah geez, all kinds of politically incorrect implications with that joke, I suppose... I guess they’ll be crawling out of the woodwork now to censor our humor, Squinch)

[dware]

32. Ah well, sometimes it's good to be poltically incorrect,

like right now.

[Squinch]

38. Lol! Just saw this. Looks like we're safe!

[Skya Rhen]

24. I would tell my son to marry someone who can also bring something to the table. At this point,

Biden needs to court someone that can provide him with delegates that can add to his numbers, should this go to a contested convention.

I see Warren as the one, especially if she gets a good share of delegates from California. For instance, if Bernie ends up with 200 delegates, Biden with 80 and Warren with 100, Warren's numbers can help Biden close the gap at the convention table. I would suggest that Biden take his time and look around, before taking the plunge...

[rzemanfl]

27. Did I wake up in India? "Tell my son to marry??????"

[padah513]

26. Now that was eloquently said.

[Vivienne235729]

17. I think the more trump endorses bernie, the more Democrats will flock to biden.

[LiberalFighter]

21. Nothing indicating how many vote in person on election day.

Compared to those that vote by mail or early vote in person.

[bucolic_frolic]

25. Joe Biden is telling us he can revive the America that Trump stole

Joe has spark, energy, wisdom, he's not angry all the time! Plus he makes sense! Bernie is throwing wedges at issues - at corporations (our employers), at health care, at the Democratic Party. Joe has confidence he can fix most of it. That's what voters want in politics. A good mind, hard work on the country's problems, resolve to uplift all in the boat.

Joe Biden is telling us he can revive the America that Trump stole and all but obliterated.

That is exactly what voters want. Once his message takes hold, voters will flee the anger and side with hope and change, 2020 style.

Go Joe!!

[duforsure]

30. Am I wrong for thinking this way?

Biden already failed us once before by not stopping Putin, trump , and Moscow Mitch by allowing them to undermine free elections, so what makes people think Biden is capable of stopping them now? I like Joe but he's not I think intellectually able to stop any of them now or looking forward after already failing once before. Is that wrong? I have little confidence in him.q

[karin_sj]

33. We held out until last Thursday

I totally understand about Californians waiting to send in their mail-in ballots. My husband, mom, and I have been hanging onto our ballots because we wanted to see how things were shaking out for the candidates. Weeks ago, we filled out everything except for the box for presidential candidate.

I've been pro-Joe for a long time but wasn't sure if he was going to get the momentum he needed to win and I wanted to make sure my vote counted as much as I could. Well, last Thursday, we all made our decisions and mailed them out. My husband and I checked the box for Biden, and my 90-year-old mom voted for Warren.

I was so happy to see the blowout in South Carolina and pray that it continues. So, yes, I totally believe that my fellow Californians were waiting for a sign and I also believe that last night was it!

[mikelgb]

34. Mine is filled out and ready. Just wanted to turn it in myself election day this time.

I was holding out a slim possibility of switching my vote but after Nevada I pretty much assumed it would be a two man (unfortunately) race between Sanders and [insert moderate here]. (Who we now know is VP Biden)

[AllaN01Bear]

35. i swore that i will support the dem nomieee who will help us defeat the thing in the white house .

[still_one]

37. I mailed in my ballot yesterday for Joe

[quaint]

40. Email from county tracker, just now, acknowledging ballot received and counted.

I was concerned.