Nate Silver's Super Tuesday win probabilities (Margins not accounted for)

[RandySF]

Link to tweet

?s=20

[ucrdem]

1. Biden will do well in CA.

The winning strategy has been to wait until the last minute before spending a lot on ads. That's how Brown won his last two governorships. And just this week I'm starting to get calls and emails from the Biden campaign after not hearing much for several months. So he might not win it but he won't get shut out.

[Cha]

4. Last week Nate..

Link to tweet

[ucrdem]

5. LOL

Love Nate but this one is breaking all the rules. I'd say Biden's chances of winning here in CA are 50/50 at the moment. Garcetti for example is a great surrogate and should help round up votes in So Cal. And Pelosi has been all in for Joe for a while so there's SF. Still it's a big state and Tuesday is going to be nail-baiter so better stock up on popcorn!

[Cha]

7. Yeah, I wonder if Nate now wonders

how he could get it so wrong last week.. what was he basing it on?!

I just read that Mayor Garcetti has endorsed Biden.. I don't think I knew that.. I was just in LA after Christmas for 4 days.. what a city!

Oh yeah lots of popcorn and hyperventilating!

[ucrdem]

8. Joe and Eric shared a Taco King moment back in January

DU hotlinking is turned off so pics aren't showing up at the moment but there's a good one at this link:



https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/09/joe-biden-eric-garcetti-endorsement-096918

[Cha]

10. Oh wow.. that a great

pic.. I was otherwise preoccupied around that time so missed it..Thank you!

[ucrdem]

9. Taco Tweets

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[thesquanderer]

12. re: "what was he basing it on?!"

Thoroughly described at https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-2020-primary-model-works/

[Awsi Dooger]

2. That would be spun as a win for Biden

If he won three states with a single digit partisan index (Texas, North Carolin, Virginia) while Sanders went 0-4 among the same (Minnesota).

[Cha]

3. Look what Nate predicted last week..

I have no idea if this one will be better..

Link to tweet

[thesquanderer]

11. The numbers in that tweet were not predictions for South Carolina.

But if you want to see his forecasts of how likely it was that Biden would win or lose, you can find them here:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/south-carolina/

[LizBeth]

6. I would like to see Calif surprise us.