Democratic Primaries

uponit7771

(90,348 posts) Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:34 PM Feb 2020

There are some polling firms that need to explain how they got SC so wrong

There are some polling firms that need to explain how they got SC so wrong

It's looking like Biden whooped azz. In SC .....not close .....which is opposite to data some polling firms put out.

We need to see why

Letting these firms put out thier so wrong data without explanation is enabling them in the future no?

Thx in advance for your input

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

32 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

There are some polling firms that need to explain how they got SC so wrong (Original Post) uponit7771 Feb 2020 OP

What about that "alternate" pollster that said squirecam Feb 2020 #1

This,. And the companies that got the data so wrong should be downgraded by 538 & RCP uponit7771 Feb 2020 #3

take away the repubs who voted for (not joe) and the margin would be more nt msongs Feb 2020 #4

Exactly right. Cha Mar 2020 #24

The same model had Biden winning Iowa. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #15

I am still laughing about that one!! Peacetrain Feb 2020 #17

Be fair. Clyburn is a powerhouse in S.C. He only endorsed on Wednesday and blm Feb 2020 #2

They should've re-polled something ... This was no where close to some predictions uponit7771 Feb 2020 #5

Nah. Wednesday was a late endorsement for polls. blm Feb 2020 #7

Russian polling manipulation. NurseJackie Feb 2020 #6

Maybe, 30yrs in IT that's where I'd hit the most uponit7771 Feb 2020 #11

Exit polls said the Clyburn endorsement impacted a TON of voters to go to Joe. nt Quixote1818 Feb 2020 #8

Apparently they aren't talking to the base.... Historic NY Feb 2020 #9

+1, uponit7771 Feb 2020 #12

Big mistake. Cha Mar 2020 #25

Primary polling in general just seems to not be great. Ace Rothstein Feb 2020 #10

To be fair, most polls were trending in this direction. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #13

I saw more than one poll where Sanders was close or winning uponit7771 Feb 2020 #19

A week ago, sure. In recent polls, Biden had an average lead of 20 points. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #22

No one answers their phone to unknown numbers. Polling is getting harder and harder IMHO. winstars Feb 2020 #14

Only one part of it. Wellstone ruled Feb 2020 #16

Thats correct. winstars Feb 2020 #20

It is the Call Lists used and what source did these lists come from. Wellstone ruled Feb 2020 #21

In particular Change Research. honest.abe Feb 2020 #18

They and Marist were the two the most off last week. Scurrilous Mar 2020 #23

+1, uponit7771 Mar 2020 #29

if a poll could measure exactly what people thought on election day dumptrump1 Mar 2020 #26

Not by 20 - 40% off, that's late 1900 polling uponit7771 Mar 2020 #30

almost half made their decision on the spot dumptrump1 Mar 2020 #32

Turnout models are notoriously difficult (nt) Recursion Mar 2020 #27

Question padah513 Mar 2020 #28

Da. MrsCoffee Mar 2020 #31

squirecam

(2,706 posts)

1. What about that "alternate" pollster that said

Reply to uponit7771 (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:35 PM

Feb 2020

Bernie would win based upon twitter and momentum?

No one should listen to that stuff ever again.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

uponit7771

(90,348 posts)

3. This,. And the companies that got the data so wrong should be downgraded by 538 & RCP

Reply to squirecam (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:37 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

msongs

(67,430 posts)

4. take away the repubs who voted for (not joe) and the margin would be more nt

Reply to squirecam (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:38 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(297,446 posts)

24. Exactly right.

Reply to msongs (Reply #4)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:03 AM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(25,473 posts)

15. The same model had Biden winning Iowa.

Reply to squirecam (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:51 PM

Feb 2020

So, yeah, it was flaky from the start.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Peacetrain

(22,877 posts)

17. I am still laughing about that one!!

Reply to squirecam (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:58 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

blm

(113,079 posts)

2. Be fair. Clyburn is a powerhouse in S.C. He only endorsed on Wednesday and

Reply to uponit7771 (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:37 PM

Feb 2020

a significant number of people said that they only decided on Biden after Clyburn’s endorsement. That would show up only on Election Day.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

uponit7771

(90,348 posts)

5. They should've re-polled something ... This was no where close to some predictions

Reply to blm (Reply #2)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:39 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

blm

(113,079 posts)

7. Nah. Wednesday was a late endorsement for polls.

Reply to uponit7771 (Reply #5)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:40 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)

6. Russian polling manipulation.

Reply to uponit7771 (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:39 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

uponit7771

(90,348 posts)

11. Maybe, 30yrs in IT that's where I'd hit the most

Reply to NurseJackie (Reply #6)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:43 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Quixote1818

(28,955 posts)

8. Exit polls said the Clyburn endorsement impacted a TON of voters to go to Joe. nt

Reply to uponit7771 (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:41 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Historic NY

(37,452 posts)

9. Apparently they aren't talking to the base....

Reply to uponit7771 (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:42 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

uponit7771

(90,348 posts)

12. +1,

Reply to Historic NY (Reply #9)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:43 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(297,446 posts)

25. Big mistake.

Reply to Historic NY (Reply #9)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:04 AM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Ace Rothstein

(3,179 posts)

10. Primary polling in general just seems to not be great.

Reply to uponit7771 (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:43 PM

Feb 2020

Especially with a large field.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)

13. To be fair, most polls were trending in this direction.

Reply to uponit7771 (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:45 PM

Feb 2020

And Steyer underperforming was to be expected.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

uponit7771

(90,348 posts)

19. I saw more than one poll where Sanders was close or winning

Reply to Garrett78 (Reply #13)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 11:04 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)

22. A week ago, sure. In recent polls, Biden had an average lead of 20 points.

Reply to uponit7771 (Reply #19)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 11:36 PM

Feb 2020

Trending is the key word.

Biden finishing 2nd in Nevada was key.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

winstars

(4,220 posts)

14. No one answers their phone to unknown numbers. Polling is getting harder and harder IMHO.

Reply to uponit7771 (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:46 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)

16. Only one part of it.

Reply to winstars (Reply #14)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 10:55 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

winstars

(4,220 posts)

20. Thats correct.

Reply to Wellstone ruled (Reply #16)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 11:10 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)

21. It is the Call Lists used and what source did these lists come from.

Reply to winstars (Reply #20)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 11:19 PM

Feb 2020

A major part is how the questions are worded as well as the answer selections. The rating time line,using a sliding number scale as a answer is designed to produce the desired out come of a poll.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

honest.abe

(8,680 posts)

18. In particular Change Research.

Reply to uponit7771 (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 11:03 PM

Feb 2020

Which I think is a scam polling operation pushing Sanders. They should be banned.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)

23. They and Marist were the two the most off last week.

Reply to honest.abe (Reply #18)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 03:54 AM

Mar 2020

Starboard Communications and Emmerson College the two that came closest.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

uponit7771

(90,348 posts)

29. +1,

Reply to honest.abe (Reply #18)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 12:25 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

dumptrump1

(236 posts)

26. if a poll could measure exactly what people thought on election day

Reply to uponit7771 (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:12 AM

Mar 2020

They would have gotten it right. But the speed at which polls were shifting last week made it pretty obvious there would be a blowout -as much as I was hoping against it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

uponit7771

(90,348 posts)

30. Not by 20 - 40% off, that's late 1900 polling

Reply to dumptrump1 (Reply #26)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 12:26 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

dumptrump1

(236 posts)

32. almost half made their decision on the spot

Reply to uponit7771 (Reply #30)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 12:56 PM

Mar 2020

There's no way to measure that unless you are nostradamus.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Recursion

(56,582 posts)

27. Turnout models are notoriously difficult (nt)

Reply to uponit7771 (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 04:56 AM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

padah513

(2,504 posts)

28. Question

Reply to uponit7771 (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 05:57 AM

Mar 2020

Since Trump's people hang onto his every word, how many of them do you think actually voted for Sanders? Could they be the reason why he came in above the 15% threshold in SC?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

MrsCoffee

(5,803 posts)

31. Da.

Reply to uponit7771 (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 12:27 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this discussion