Let's try an ice cream analogy, shall we?

[DanTex]

Anti-Bernie pundits just won't give up on the lie that "70%" of Dems are against Bernie.

So...let's say we have an ice cream party with 6 flavors. The most popular flavor is, say, vanilla, which is the favorite of 30% of the people. Then comes chocolate with 20, and strawberry with 15, and so on. Does that mean that 70% of the people don't like vanilla? That vanilla fans are some kind of fringe minority? Who on earth would draw that conclusion?

What if we also know that vanilla is the flavor that the largest number of people said they viewed favorably, even if it wasn't their first choice. It's also the flavor that the most people would be satisfied or excited about having. And also most people picked vanilla over any other flavor when given a head-to-head choice. After all that, would any sane person still try to pretend that vanilla was not the favorite flavor?

Oh, and since we're talking ice cream, let's say that four years there was another ice cream party but that time there were only two flavors, vanilla, and pistachio. Between those two, vanilla got 45% and pistachio got 55%. Would anyone in their right mind say that vanilla has had a huge drop in popularity from the two-flavor party four years ago to the six-flavor party today?

Anyone who said any of that would be laughed out of the room. And yet anti-Bernie pundits make those very same arguments, with a straight face, every day. Yeah, it's hard to believe.

[TeamPooka]

1. Bernie needs voters of color in SC so arguing the case for vanilla may not be best strategy here.

[quickesst]

20. no comment on the analogy....

.... but....

?itemid=14075405

[TeamPooka]

47. :)

[relayerbob]

2. Except in the end

We ALL have to eat the same flavored ice cream. And we've got to convince another group of people, almost twice as large as us to like what we pick, even if they don't like ice cream. Choosing the one 70% of the ones who like ice cream doesn't like, while ignoring the other group entirely, doesn't make the majority happy, it makes the majority sad. And likely, most of the ice cream goes down the drain. A compromise choice is one where we all at least sorta like the ice cream, and it all gets eaten, not thrown out.

As Yang said repeatedly. Math Counts.

Worst. Analogy. Ever.

[DanTex]

4. Which is why we should pick the flavor that the most people would be happy with.

Which, in this analogy, is vanilla: polls show Bernie is the candidate most people say they would be satisfied with. Also the one that most people have a positive opinion of.

Math counts. And the math all points in the same direction.

[relayerbob]

18. No, most people are NOT in favor of it

30% is ALWAYS less then 70%.

I'm not sure how your answer is any better than our current situation. In the GOP's case, they have, say, 80% of the support for Trump, and , say, roughly 50% of the support of the country (that gives the typical 40% support for Trump). That means roughly 40% of the country are lactose intolerant and want a big heaping pile of steak. On your side, you have 30% in favor of vanilla, so with 50% of the country wanting ice cream, only 15% of the total population wants vanilla ice cream.

So, by your flawed logic, the 40% who are fine with the red meat being handed to them by the GOP should continue to hold control over the 15% who want vanilla ice cream. Sounds like we lose big time in November, when they take all the cooked meat and throw use the uncooked scraps again.

What I'd prefer, if you all would do a little compromising, would be to get, say, a box of cookies that 80-90% of the Dems could get behind and maybe convince enough of the other crowd, that doesn't like red meat, and make, preferably well, over 50% of the entire country happy, rather than the minority opinions that are now forcing their food choices down our throats. And in the process get control of the kitchen from Moscow Mitch

[sheshe2]

28. Vanilla.

[relayerbob]

33. Unfortuantely

that's sorta all we have left, the chocolate and jalapeno flavors got pushed out of the way, much to my own dismay

[thesquanderer]

23. re: "Choosing the one 70% of the ones who like ice cream doesn't like,"

except in this case, 70% *DO* like vanilla. Many of them don't choose it because they like something else better, but they still like vanilla. And the other part of this analogy is that, not only do 70% like vanilla, but there is NO OTHER SINGLE FLAVOR that 70% like. Only vanilla. Any other choice will give you something FEWER people like.

Okay, if Sanders is Vanilla in this scenario, the real number is 65%, but everything else is accurate.

The second most popular flavor here--in terms of being acceptable to the greatest number of people, even if not their first choice--is Warren with 60%. Then Biden with 56%.

See: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287569533

[relayerbob]

31. Hence my choice of Warren

Your assumption is that Sanders is that many's second choice. Since we aren't actually measuring second choices accurately in the *elections*, the assumption is that Democrats will like a non-Democrat with questionable chances of winning down-ballot races will prefer him, in realty. Right now, the answer is: 70% think not. Even if their candidate has basically zero chance of winning anything, including in some cases, even a single delegate due to the skewed metrics (15% "viability BS) of this race. That seems to be a pretty clear signal to me that they aren't exactly flocking to grab a bowl of vanilla.

[thesquanderer]

38. re: "Your assumption is that Sanders is that many's second choice."

No, I didn't mean to imply that, that's not part of my premise. He could as easily be someone's 3rd, 4th, ot 5th choice (i.e. if someone actually likes 3, 4, or 5 candidates).

The idea is that the total number of people who like vanilla (Sanders) is greater than the total number of people who like any other flavor. It doesn't matter if lots of those people prefer chocolate, and lots prefer strawberry, and a bunch prefer both chocolate AND strawberry better. All we're concerned about here is that they DO like vanilla. regardless of how many other flavors they like and whether they like those flavors more or less than they like vanilla, all of which is irrelevant to the question of simply how many like vanilla.

[relayerbob]

39. Actually

if the chocolate and strawberry groups, neither one of which like vanilla and choose to work together to get the neapolitan, then they should get it.

It's not a matter of who has a plurality. It's a matter of who can put together a *team* that makes up a majority

[thesquanderer]

40. Except the election will only allow you to vote for one flavor. No combis.

There is no "work together" scenario in the primaries. The closest you get is if someone drops out and endorses someone else, but even then, there's no guarantee that all the supporters of the person who dropped out will decide they like the one that person endorsed.

[relayerbob]

41. Actually, that's exactly how the brokered/contested convention works

The delegates work out the best compromise that gets the majority of support, not just a mere plurality/minority.

They may, or may not, need to get "superdelegates" involved. If the candidates form up a team (any team, including Sanders) and name a "captain" to gain a majority before or during the convention, or after the first ballot, they will be the party's choice. And, of course, not only is there no guarantee one's choice will like, it's a guarantee that some people won't like any part of it.

Successful leadership is about team-building and problem-solving, in every organization large and small, not creation of personality cults, let's leave that to the GOP. This is their ultimate test of leadership.

[thesquanderer]

42. The problem is we've already determined that none of our flavors are acceptable to more people...

than Vanilla (Bernie Sanders) is. That won't change at a brokered convention as long as we're choosing from the same pool of flavors. What changes is that the brokered convention gives the party the freedom to choose a flavor that has never been offered before (say, a Butterscotch Sherrod Brown or whatever).

Or *maybe* one could come up with a PRES+VP combination that is liked by more people than any one candidate.

[relayerbob]

43. Actaully, with only about 5% of the votes counted

We haven't determined that at all.

[thesquanderer]

44. I meant we had determined it based on this:

Last edited Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:52 PM - Edit history (1)

the link in the OP: http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/01/22/rel1b.-.2020.pdf

also summarized at https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287569533

(ETA: actually based on
https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/200085NBCWSJFebruary2020Poll.pdf )

Note that the attribute I was talking about can ONLY be determined by polling, there's no way to determine it by votes. Votes only tell you who people's first choices are, they don't tell you which other candidates they would have felt comfortable or uncomfortable with as our nominee, which is the metric we're discussing here.

[relayerbob]

46. Understood

[brooklynite]

3. Let's try a different analogy...

let's say we have an political party with 6 candiate. The most popular candidate is, say, Sanders , which is the favorite of 30% of the people. Then comes Biden with 20, and Bloomberg with 15, and so on. Does that mean that 70% of the people don't like Sanders or think he won't win? Yes.

[Act_of_Reparation]

6. Nope.

It means 70% of the people are voting for someone else. It doesn't tell you anything about why they are voting for something else.

[DanTex]

7. You're ignoring all the polling data. All of it. I wonder why?

The candidate who the most Dems think could beat Trump? Bernie.
The candidate the most Dems say they would be satisfied or enthusiastic about? Bernie.
The candidate with the best approval numbers? Bernie.
The candidate that beats every other one in head-to-head polling? Bernie.

I gotta say, it's just strange that people will simply ignore all the data, and there's a lot of it.

[thesquanderer]

17. re: "Does that mean that 70% of the people don't like Sanders or think he won't win? Yes."

The correct answer is No.

Logic. The fact that 70% of the people like (at least) one of five other candidates more does NOT mean that those 70% don't like Sanders, nor that those 70% don't think he would win.

And in fact, when you look at favorability, 70%+ *do* like Sanders.

And in fact, more people (about 2/3) are comfortable with or enthusiastic about the prospect of his being the nominee. And the KEY part of this stat is that the 2/3 is MORE than are happy with the idea of any OTHER single candidate.

Sure, if you add up the TOTALS of ALL the other candidates, you'll get numbers that beat Sanders. But try going to the poll booth and voting for five candidates! As long as you can only vote for one, Sanders is the single candidate that people are most comfortable with.

[TheCowsCameHome]

5. Google Translator couldn't make sense of this one.

Bernie will get the vanilla vote, though.

[NurseJackie]

24. Haaaaaa!

[sheshe2]

29. Lol

[squirecam]

8. The proper analogy is

That Bernie is vanilla at 30%

Biden is chocolate at 20%
Bloomberg is chocolate chocolate chip at 15%
Pete is chocolate fudge at 11%
Amy is chocolate and peanut butter at 8%

More people want a chocolate flavor then a vanilla one. Even though they all like a different version of chocolate better.

[DanTex]

9. The polling data points to the exact opposite of that.

I truly have no idea why people insist on ignoring the data.

[squirecam]

10. I don't know why you

Keep ignoring the data either.

[DanTex]

13. Please, enlighten me! I posted links to polls, you haven't.

If your analogy were anything close to accurate, we wouldn't have numbers like this:

[squirecam]

16. You keep posting on that one old survey.

The newest Texas and Florida polls show that Biden is gaining Bloomberg voters.

When it gets to Biden vs Sanders after Super Tuesday, we will see who wins.

[DanTex]

26. I've posted multiple links to multiple surveys. And other polls come out the same way, google it.

The data is clear.

You're talking about a single survey, in a single state, which only considers the second-choice preferences of a single candidate. In effect, it shows that if you look at a small subsample of maybe 10% of the people at the party, and then only consider the ones with cherry as their top flavor, they are slightly more likely to prefer strawberry to vanilla.

Please. Look at the entire electorate, all the candidates, and all the metrics. It all comes out the same way.

[thesquanderer]

32. Except when various "chocolate variants" became unviable in the first round in Nevada,

many of them switch to vanilla rather than to another chocolate.

See: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287561581

Also, if you check MorningConsult, the most popular second choice for chocolate Biden supporters is vanilla Sanders, not another chocolate/moderate.

What you put forth is an interesting theory with some logic behind it, but it is not borne out by real world data. What happens is that people don't stick in their "lanes" when switching candidates, and often find candidates appealing based on other things.

[Tom Rinaldo]

11. Ha! Here's my version of the "Ice Cream analogy" from two weeks ago

Great minds and all of that I used different flavors though:

"One day a guy walks into an ice cream shoppe and asks; "what flavors do have for sale"? The clerk responds, "Chocolate, Vanilla, and Burnt Pickle" So the guy buys a chocolate cone and asks, "What are other people buying?" The clerk responds "Very few people are buying Burnt Pickle, and it's pretty much half and half between Vanilla and Chocolate for the rest".

A month later that same guy walks into the same ice cream shoppe and asks, "What flavors do you have for sale this time?" The clerk responds "We have a lot more choices this time. We still have Chocolate and Vanilla, but also Espresso, and Strawberry. and Mint Chocolate Chip, and Butter Pecan, and Rocky Road, and also Bitter Mushroom." "That is a lot more choices" the customer says, "but I think I'll have Chocolate again." He then adds, "I'm curious though about what other people are buying". The clerk responds "Well, Chocolate and Vanilla are still far and away our best sellers, probably half or more of our customers are choosing one of those. It's pretty much neck and neck between Chocolate and Vanilla, with the rest of our customers selecting one of the other flavors that we now have available as their first choice."

"Gee that's too bad" says the guy, "Chocolate is only half as popular now as it was the last time that I shopped here."

[DanTex]

14. LOL. Excellent. Sorry for the accidental plagiarism!

[Tom Rinaldo]

19. No problem, I plagiarize talking points from you all the time! It's in the ether

That's always a good indicator of a strong grass roots movement

[Hoyt]

12. But isn't that what people fear about "socialism," restricted choices of ice cream?

[C_U_L8R]

15. Wait a second

I thought you folks wanted the person with the most ice cream to give it to the others with less ice cream?

just kidding around - you can have my ice cream as long as we can have your milkshake

[SidDithers]

21. What if all of the people at the party were going to order ice cream...

but they could only order one flavour, and they wouldn't place the order until one flavour had been chosen by 50% of the people.

So, after everyone submits their first choice, the most popular flavor is, say, vanilla, which is the favorite of 30% of the people. Then comes chocolate with 20, and strawberry with 15, and so on.

Why should the 30% of the people who prefer vanilla claim that vanilla should be the flavour ordered, when vanilla doesn't yet have the support of 50% of the party guests?

So a few flavours are eliminated, and then the party guests are polled again.

Now, Vanilla gets 35% support, but everyone who wanted strawberry and pistachio and pralines and cream have decided that they'd rather have chocolate than vanilla, and chocolate now has the support of 50% of the party guests.

So the will of the people is that chocolate is the flavour to be ordered, and vanilla can go back to being an independent Senator from a tiny New England state.

It's almost like a caucus, which fans of vanilla apparently love.

Sid

[DanTex]

25. Good question. Here's the answer.

[SidDithers]

27. And yet vanilla still doesn't have 50% of the delegates...

Poor, poor vanilla.

Sid

[DanTex]

30. Well, now you're talking about what the ice cream industry wants, not the people.

That's the problem. If the ice cream industry insiders decide that everyone has to eat strawberry, even though the people clearly prefer vanilla, then you end up with an unhappy ice cream party.

And that would cause the ice cream party to lose to the cupcake party in the general dessert-off.

[Rorey]

36. I've got a hunch that some of those who wanted vanilla will decide they won't want any at all

Because if they can't have their first choice, they'll just not have any ice cream. (Instead they'll dine on the sour grapes they brought in their pockets.) And then the order will get cancelled because it doesn't meet the minimum amount required in order to place an order.

And we'll be stuck with Orangeface for another four years.

[AGeddy]

22. Will you flip your script if, after SC, Biden is tied or ahead of Bernie in delegates?

I'm guessing you would.

[Kota]

34. I would maybe serve neopolitan at the next party.

[thesquanderer]

35. The thing that most confuses people in online forums is math. Coming in second? Analogies. n/t

[bobGandolf]

37. Bernie, and his merrimakers...

will lose us the general election, and possibly the House Majority. You do not have to believe me. You can call me all sorts of names, etc. I will not change my mind. There is just way too much material on Bernie that the majority of Americans would disagree with pretty strongly.
==============

[sarisataka]

45. I will eat any ice cream

Because I am sick of orange sherbert

[SidDithers]

48. Kick...

Sid