Sanders is the only candidate beating Trump in Pennsylvania

[melman]

Link to tweet

[zackymilly]

1. This again? n/t

[LanternWaste]

2. they call it "vetting a story..."

(It's only spamming the board if the story is positive to Biden or negative to Sanders

Otherwise, they excuse it as "vetting a story..." (true story)

[melman]

5. "Otherwise, they excuse it as "vetting a story..." (true story)"

Who does this? Certainly not me.

[evertonfc]

3. the 700 billion in ads

hasn't started yet agianst our nominee. The fact that PA is close given our opponent is scary

[SidDithers]

4. MOE +/- 5.5%...

The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 424 registered voters in the
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between February 12 and 20, 2020. Respondents were
interviewed in English on both landlines (136) and cell phones (289). With a randomly selected
sample of respondents the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 5.5% at a 95% level of confidence.

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6786445/FULL-RESULTS-Morning-Call-Muhlenberg-College.pdf

Sid

[question everything]

6. Will not once they find his stand on fracking which is an important revenue there

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

7. As a Pennsylvanian

Last edited Thu Feb 27, 2020, 03:22 PM - Edit history (1)

This is laughable. There aren't enough college students in the entire state to pull that off and, for those that don't realize it, the "youth vote" is not monolithic. There are plenty of racist, xenophobic, zygote-obsessed young people in this state who won't vote for any Democrat.

The suburbs, where many hard-working professionals live and where Democrats have made such tremendous gains, will never vote to pay higher income and payroll taxes so they can have diminished healthcare benefits. They may not vote for anyone for President or they may actually vote Republican.

[WhereAmerica]

8. Silly poll -- only 424 respondents

See here:

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6786445/FULL-RESULTS-Morning-Call-Muhlenberg-College.pdf

Plus, it says 54% doesn't think Trump deserves re-election, while 42% do.

[thesquanderer]

10. The number of respondents alone is not relevant, but it is part of the MoE calculation. (n/t)

[DarthDem]

11. Of course the # of respondents is relevant

Pennsylvania is large enough in geographic size, and has three distinct areas of political concentration, that the larger the sample, the better the results. 424 is very, very small for a purportedly representative poll. And even if you believe that this is all reflected in the MOE, that still proves the point of the defects in this poll, because the MOE is unusually large.

[thesquanderer]

12. MoE takes into account what percentage of the population is being polled. (n/t)

[DarthDem]

13. That's what I just said

nt

[thesquanderer]

14. What I meant is, that obviates the need to consider #/% polled separately.

You can look at the number polled, or the percent polled, and take a gut guess at how inaccurate it makes the poll. Or you can look at the MoE and know mathematically how inaccurate it makes the poll. (Though MoE can include other factors as well.)

[OnDoutside]

9. Lol.

[Nanjeanne]

15. Haven't you heard? Bernie's ahead - poll is bad. Get with the program!