MA 2020 Poll: 1. Sanders 2. Biden 3. Warren

[workinclasszero]

Massachusetts 2020: Sanders, Biden lead Warren in her home state Mayor Pete in top four. Trump popular only with his base

The first Emerson Poll in Massachusetts of the 2020 primary finds Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with 26% of the vote in the Democratic field, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 23%, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren at 14%, Mayor of South Bend Pete Buttigieg at 11%, former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke at 8%, and California Senator Kamala Harris at 7%. 5% of voters are looking for another candidate. (April 4-7, n=371, +/- 5%).

According to Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, “this is a concern for Warren who at this time does not have a firewall in her home state, and her rival Sanders has a strong base in the Bay State.”

Of those who supported Sanders in the 2016 primary, about 45% plan to support him in 2020. In the 2016 primary in Massachusetts, he captured almost 48% of the Democratic vote against Hillary Clinton.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/massachusetts-2020-sanders-biden-lead-warren-in-her-home-state

[Exotiki]

1. Warren's gonna take it

She's got momentum.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

2. Go Bernie!! Sweeeet!!

Feel the Bern!!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Hav]

3. The results are well within the margin of error

but I'd assume the more important data point would be that losing half the support of your previous voters cannot be good. It will be interesting to see whether this will be a ceiling that will only be enough in a crowded field.

[CentralMass]

4. Time will tell..based on number od donors and rally attendance support seems good.

[BlueFlorida]

5. lol

A poll of 371 people?

The margin of error for each value will differ but the formula is

MOE = z*SQR((?*(1-? ))/n)

So the MOE for that poll is not the stated +/-5% but more like +/-9.7% for Sanders, +/-10.4% for Biden, +/-11.8% for Warren etc.

In other words -- a WORTHLESS poll.

[Eric J in MN]

7. How are you applying the formula to each candidate? NT

NT

[BlueFlorida]

13. It is simple

one needs a z score of 1.96 to have a 95% confidence limit in a Gaussian distribution.

If candidate is at X thein the formula is 1.96* SQR((X*(1-X)/Sample Size of 371)

[demosincebirth]

6. Biden isn't even running

[Uncle Joe]

8. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread workinclasszero.

[workinclasszero]

14. You bet

Good news for Bernie!

[highplainsdem]

9. You left out the poll results showing Biden doing 10 points better than Sanders against Trump.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/massachusetts-2020-sanders-biden-lead-warren-in-her-home-state

President Trump is very popular within the Republican party in Massachusetts, leading former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld 82% to 18% (n=183, +/- 7.2%). Kimball explains, “The Massachusetts Republican primary voters were earlier supporters of Trump in the 2016 primary. Emerson Polling showed Trump well ahead by Oct. of 2015, a lead he maintained through the primary in March of 2016 which the President won by nearly 30 points.”

However, similar to 2016, the President’s popularity in the primary does not transcend to the general electorate. Among all voters, Trump is at 62% disapproval and 29% approval. The general election does not appear competitive, with Trump trailing Biden 69% to 31%, Sanders 64% to 36% and Warren 63% to 37% (n=761, +/-3.5%).

Emphasis added.

Biden leads Trump in that poll by 38 points. Sanders leads Trump by 28. Warren leads Trump by 26.

The difference between Biden and Sanders there is way beyond the margin of error.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

10. Whataboutism.

[highplainsdem]

11. ???? It isn't "whataboutism" to point out the OP left out the poll results showing Biden would be a

much stronger candidate in the general election.

[UniteFightBack]

12. We have to go with the sure thing. nt

[workinclasszero]

15. Again....you have to win your parties nomination first!

Bernie beats Dump as well but I really don't give a crap about these fantasy matchups against Duh Furor!

This is not the time for that! This is the time that Joe Biden has to convince me and others to vote for his nomination, and he is failing miserably I might add!

This putting the cart before the horse needs to stop.

[Kentonio]

16. I really like Liz

But it’s hard to see where she gets the oxygen she needs to progress in this race when Bernie is in the field.