43.4%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/


That's the Menace's average approval rating. No president in modern history has been re-elected with an approval rating that low. That makes sense since re-election campaigns are referendums on the incumbent. If voters like the job he or she is doing they vote to give that person another term. If they don't they don't.

That's not an iron rule of politics but is of value.

Trump is beatable. That's not saying he will be. Shame on us if we don't.


P.S. Please don't say it's too high or too low. That's what the data suggests it is. To those who say it's too high I respectfully submit you get out more. I meet Trumpers every day to my chagrin, even in the Los Angeles county.

[TwilightZone]

1. Keep in mind that approval doesn't equate directly to votes.

Lots of people disapproved of him in 2016 and still voted for him, unfortunately, so conventional wisdom might not entirely apply. Not sure anything normative does with Trump.

There's also 4.5% undecided in the approval averages. If he got roughly half of that in actual voting, he's basically at 45% or slightly higher.

That being said, he's definitely beatable. It's going to come down to a few states again and we need to make sure we field someone able to win those and then get out the vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Let's confine ourselves to incumbents

Approval ratings for incumbents are highly correlated to their percentage of the vote.

Obama
Bush
Clinton
Bush Pere
Reagan
Carter
Ford
Nixon

Their approval numbers were highly correlated with the percentage of the vote they received. Highly correlated isn't the same as identical but close.

[TwilightZone]

6. Trump's was also close.

44.3% right after inauguration and after it took a perfect storm for him to win via the EC.

Including a slight bump from the undecideds, he's basically there now. Chances of repeating the perfect storm are much less likely, however. For one, there won't be a Comey letter at the last minute this time.

I seem to recall a study that said he could win with 45% of the vote because of how skewed the EC currently is. That's probably about right, if not a little low.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. There are too many variables to come up with a magic number.

The over/under is likely 46%. Due to the vagaries of the Electoral College the Dems will likely need to win the pop vote by at least 2.5%

[TwilightZone]

8. Agreed.

Also depends on who else runs and if they potentially pull votes from one side or the other.

[Laelth]

2. Trump sucks. What else is there to say?

That’s why I am convinced that Daffy Duck could beat Trump in November (if Daffy ran as a Democrat), and it’s also why a potential Sanders nomination doesn’t bother me. Even Bernie could beat Trump this year. Panic is not warranted.

-Laelth

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Trump is a menace.

That being said the economy is perceived as doing well. The same research that suggests an incumbent's share of the vote is highly correlated with his or approval rating also suggests incumbent presidents who are presiding over what is perceived to be a good economy tend to be re-elected.

[Laelth]

11. "Perceived" is the right word.

I, and the majority of the people that I know, aren’t doing well in this economy ... at all.

-Laelth

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. The economy is about the same as it was under President Obama.

[kiri]

4. 'modern history' ended in 2017; it is trump history now

<<No president in modern history has been re-elected with an approval rating that low.>>
modern history is irrelevant. Trump has completely changed the game, very cleverly and slyly, by developing a cult. This was never done before.

Sad to say, Trump will win the 271 electoral votes by winning in Wisconsin, MI, PA, FL, OH. That's all he needs---the rest of the states do not matter.

The courts are now packed to prevent any challenges.

[Laelth]

12. The rules have been challenged under Trump, admittedly.

But I am not willing to throw in the towel quite yet. I invite you to muster all the intestinal fortitude that you have and to continue fighting the good fight.



-Laelth

[uponit7771]

9. NATIONAL RATINGS MEAN NOTHING !!! Swing state polls mean everything since presidents ...

... for the republican party are no longer democratically elected.

Swing states Sanders is getting his ass kicked

[Nikki28]

10. wow

Sadly, It won't matter when you have other countries and rich cheats helping the stealing.

[aikoaiko]

13. Yes, he is beatable, but his favorability rating was about 40% when he was elected

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/clintontrumpfavorability.html

[Awsi Dooger]

15. It's great that the approval rating dropped to 43s again

After being above 44 last week.

I am following this closely, while mostly ignoring day to day primary garbage. We need Trump to remain in 43 range. I'm convinced he will receive about 3% higher than his 538 number in the national popular vote.

Neither party gets 43 or 44% in a two-way race. It's silly to consider it. I think the +3 from 538 will end up very close to accurate. I came to that number after looking at the 2018 midterm and Trump's approval rating in those key state exit polls, in comparison to the generic vote and the GOP split in the particular state. Trump was almost always considerably above the party standing.

It is very true that we probably need at least +2.5% in the popular vote margin to win the electoral college. And that means we need to be basically even on election night itself, and not trailing, since the late wave from California steadily shoves the number in our direction long after election day.

Trump has been a liar and cheat and lowlife human being throughout his life. You would think that some day it would catch up to him. But given incumbency and our lack of an ideal candidate, the only way we can defeat him is by a razor tight photo finish. That's why I'm not getting my hopes up. I always assign 8 years to that incumbent if it's first term in power for the party.

I remain convinced that Bloomberg is the best vehicle. People vastly underestimate the pull and teflon of someone who is very powerful and rich. Yesterday I was visiting my aunt while helping her rent a room in her house. She is 77 and switched from Obama to Trump in 2016, after being brainwashed by a couple of widow friends of similar age. I assumed my aunt was pure Trump again. She surprised me by asking my opinion about the Democratic debates, while saying she had been watching them. When I gave the rundown of every candidate she stopped me on Bloomberg and said, "He's the one who said things about women, right?" I said yes and gave some details. My aunt shook her head in disappointment.

Not immediately but about 10 minutes later I mentioned Bloomberg again and said he can afford all the commercials because he is much richer than Trump. My aunt interrupted immediately. "Richer than Trump? No, that can't be." She had a perplexed look on her face. When I continued and told her that Bloomberg is many times wealthier than Trump, that with a self-made 60 billion dollars he could buy Trump's money over and over again, and that Bloomberg had his own financial television network that I watch first thing every morning, my aunt's facial expression was completely different than when referencing the statements about women. It was as if those no longer existed or mattered in the slightest. Now it was like she was in awe. She said, "Wow, I'll have to pay attention to Bloomberg on Tuesday night."

We can go with real world anecdotal evidence like that, or we can pretend that turnout means anything at all. I have no idea how anybody can be dense enough to believe in turnout before the fact. Turnout is after the fact. You look at where you did better or worse than expected, and likewise with your opponent. You make some adjustments for next time. I have never in my life imagined the Democratic party could be stupid enough to nominate someone under the moronic impression that turnout would tip the scale, and especially youth turnout. It's like Monty Python applied to politics, except the Monty Python people reveled in the spoof while the Sanders crowd actually believes it.