Bernie Sanders Plunges to First Place

[Uncle Joe]

Remember when the big winner of New Hampshire was third-place finisher Amy Klobuchar (FAIR.org, 2/14/20)?

“Bernie Sanders may have come first in New Hampshire, but Amy Klobuchar won,” Bloomberg (2/12/20) declared (the media company, not the billionaire candidate who owns it). “I would almost argue that a third-place finish for Amy would be stronger and more important than a first-place finish for Bernie,” MSNBC commentator Adrienne Elrod (2/11/20) asserted.

That’s not how it worked out, of course; since February 14, Bernie Sanders has gone from a 4-point lead to a 12-point lead over his closest rival, Joe Biden, in national polling averages, while Klobuchar remains in fifth place. In the Nevada caucuses held February 22, Sanders got twice as many final votes as No. 2 Biden, whom Sanders was trailing in the polls as recently as ten days earlier.

Caucus entrance polls found the Vermont senator was the top choice of both men and women, whites and Latinos (though not African-Americans, where he was second to Biden), all age groups except those 65 and older, Democrats and independents, union households and non-union households, and those with and without college degrees. He had the most support among those described as “very liberal” and “somewhat liberal,” and tied Biden among those labeled “moderate or conservative.”

So while there’s still some coverage that might be said to be stuck in the denial stage about Sanders—“Nevada Caucuses Win Would Make Bernie Sanders a Weak Front-Runner” (Washington Examiner, 2/18/20; MSN, 2/18/20) was a late entry in that genre—for the most part corporate media have moved on to the next stage of grieving, which is anger.

(snip)

https://fair.org/home/bernie-sanders-plunges-to-first-place/

[democrank]

1. When I woke up this morning and found out that

Bernie had dropped to last place, I finally accepted the fact that he has no support in America.

[CentralMass]

8. He is up 12.1 points nationally.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

28. Yes, Bernie's inevitable to become the Democratic nominee, so he needs to withdraw from the race!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[DownriverDem]

41. Remember that

in November when trump wins. Your jumping wavers will be crying.

[Perseus]

66. And your analysis that contradicts the Democratic voters choice so far is?

Please, do share, we need to see those analysis that Sanders will not win, don't keep it to yourself, how can we switch to Biden if we don't know the truth from the thorough analysis done by people like you. I mean, you say it with so much confidence "In November when trump wins..." that I cannot but believe you have the data to prove it.

[Richard58]

80. I agree.

I get so tired of hearing people say "Bernie can't possibly win!" Why? In poll after poll he beats Trump by a larger margin than any other Democratic candidate. He also has the biggest crowds and the most enthusiastic supporters. "But he is a SOCIALIST" they say. So? He is no different than any west European politician. He wants people to have access to health care, higher education and a living wage. Oh the horror! Stalin's gulags are right around the corner! Sigh.
I want Bernie to win. But I will vote for ANY Democrat who wins the nomination. Even Bloomberg. (As an aside I think Bloomberg is the worst of the Democratic candidates. He is just another out-of-touch corporate-loving billionaire in my opinion. I have no idea why the corporate media thinks he will be the savior of the Democratic Party.)
I say ignore all the hysteria on the media's part about how "horrible" a Sanders Presidency would be. They don't have a clue as to what the American people want. Go Bernie!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

99. THIS x 1,000,000!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[BigBearJohn]

79. I listened to you guys in 2016 and look what I got!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

101. Seriously!! I give credibility to those who were right!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[ehrnst]

103. Right about what there? Hillary winnin' more votes than anybody not named Obama?

She sure did! Not as much as she won that there primary by, but still...a winner!! It was stole from her, but she's still the people's own POTUS!!

[booley]

91. The case that a centrist can win has yet to be made

I even asked.

Instead of explaining why a centrist would win against Trump unlike the last time a centrist ran against trump, all I got was "Bernie can't win!"

I admit I rage quit DU for a while after that.

There's no guarantee anyone will win over Trump. Trump is the incumbent and the GOP cheats. Any Democrat will have to over-perform in many states just to break even.


There is more evidence the guy with the most votes in all three states can do that then the people in a distant second or third or fourth place.

[ehrnst]

100. Well, the Democrat nominated by 4 million in 2016 won more votes than anyone not named Obama.

So there's that.

And the case has yet to be made that Sanders can beat Trump. After all, he's got to win a Democratic primary before that can happen.

[ehrnst]

98. Ya mean... ya think them other candidates should just concede when one candidate is way ahead?

Ironic, doncha think?

[Beringia]

2. Thank goodness for the younger generation supporting Sanders

And the Latinx

I have been following some pundits for their take on the trump era and impeachment, but they are so skewed against Sanders, I have given up appreciating their take on the presidential race. Happily, they seem to be on the sidelines and there is a groundswell of support for Sanders in the grassroots.

[DownriverDem]

43. Without

the House and Senate, Sanders will get nothing passed.

[booley]

92. So people would vote for Sanders and then forget the rest of the ticket?

I have heard this before and never with any explanation.

Why would people vote for Sanders and then ignore all the Democrats down ticket?

Unless you mean the Democratic party itself will block their own President.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

105. THIS 100%... IT'S AN ABSURD ARGUMENT, AS YOU POINT OUT!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[SKKY]

52. Sanders is huge among younger generation voters...

...which just happens to be the most unreliable voting block. Joy.

[Perseus]

73. Joy??? Are you referring to Joy Reid or your comment fills your heart with joy?

And your conclusion about the unreliable young ones comes from where? Please share.

So many "confident" opinions, but I have not seen one yet that backs their conclusions.

I specially like the one "Sanders will not win"...end of post.

I can tell everyone that Sanders, or Biden, or anyone else will not win if we continue with this bickering, this fanatism, and crazy loyalty to the chosen candidate, we need to unite, we need to cheer for anyone who wins the nomination and make sure that we go out and vote. Staying home and not voting because your candidate did not win the nomination is disloyal to the Democratic party and to the nation, the consequences of four more years of the creature and Barr will create a Venezuela out of the USA. If anyone thinks "It Can't Happen Here" then you have not read enough history to realize that "IT CAN HAPPEN ANYWHERE".

Tell us what is so good about your candidate, but stop bashing against other candidates, we need to be united, we need to win in November, no matter who our nominee is, other than that you are pitching for the other team.

[notinkansas]

82. Wow. So refreshing to see some sanity

here amid all the Bernie bashing.

Trump is the only one deserving of all this ire. Whoever gets the Democratic nomination should get every Democrat's vote. Anything less is purely juvenile. If one's feelings are hurt because their nominee didn't get the nomination, step back and look at the larger picture. Trump is a real threat. Any candidate who can secure the nomination in the primary certainly has enough backing to win in the general. None of the candidates will change minds of diehard Trump supporters. They are a cult. Logic and reasoning don't reach them. They are lost in terms of votes. But we seriously outnumber them. We just have to unite behind the candidate that emerges from the primary process. I think that, yes, it really is that simple. We have to 'Just Do It'.

[SKKY]

86. Here. And shush.

http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics

[Cal Carpenter]

90. Given that we need massive turnout in order to win in November

wouldn't it behoove us to nominate someone who is most likely to bring young people to the ballot box?

[Celerity]

54. All Latinx are not cut from the same cloth. He will get slaughtered in FL, with Latinx playing a

large part in that.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

3. What is weird to me is that I don't know a single Dem

personally, of any stripe, who likes him. With numbers like you quote, it just seems so weird to me that I haven't happened upon anyone.

It also seems strange because the world doesn't seem anywhere as liberal as Bernie is. It's like alternate reality that exists elsewhere.

I am just hoping that if he wins, the rest of the country can somehow pull it together. MoJoe just said, we can write Florida off over Castro comments.

[NurseJackie]

4. Russian Poll Manipulation

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. I thought the same thing NJ...but I am one of the biggest

Tin foil hatter's there is and even I know that it's doubtful they could hack every preference poll and now the exit polls, isn't it?

[NurseJackie]

24. They only need to create an initial illusion of a "surge"...

... then the bandwagon-jumpers and all others who are followers (and let "others" do their thinking for them) end up wanting to support what appears to be "the winner". Everyone loves to support "the winner" and will try to do so for that reason alone (having zero clues about the candidate himself... or herself, whatever.)

So, to address your observations... it's unlikely that they can manipulate ALL polls... just enough to get the ball rolling. In much the same way it was done for Trump (as we now know).

[ramen]

34. Based on DU, it is far from true that

'everyone loves to support the winner' and there is just as often an opposite reaction when someone pulls into the lead, however temporarily.

[NurseJackie]

40. I think most DUers are smarter than the woefully ill-informed and typical low-information voter.

Based on DU, it is far from true that

That's an interesting observation. I think most DUers are smarter than the woefully ill-informed and typical low-information voter.

[ramen]

72. I agree with you on DU having better information but

I don't think the bobs and weaves of candidate support are specific to DU. I have seen it in polling trends as well as my own anecdotal observations here.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

45. I see what you are saying. And they don't have to, or WANT

to convince the large group of more more moderate pragmatists (those who doubt he could ultimately beat trump or that his plans could ever translate to law) in our party. They just have to manipulate enough to get him to win the nomination.

[MisterFred]

5. He's wildly popular among Democrats in Utah.

Even back in 2016 we went for him over Clinton at a 4-1 rate. (Seriously, he won 80% to 20%.) And we have a caucus, so it was only Democratic supporters showing up. And all the voting was paper ballots counted by hand.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

10. Well that is a good reality to know.

[lapfog_1]

81. so Utah is in play

is that what you believe? Bernie is going to win Utah's electoral votes?

Because if you think he isn't... then what difference does it make if Utah's Democrats love Bernie.

And, before anyone has a cow, the same can be said for California... of course Bernie wins California this fall against Trump.

The thing is... none of these states matter.

[MisterFred]

93. Utah is a Super Tuesday state. And Dems in red states are still Dems. nt

[redqueen]

7. I know lots, but I mostly associate with poor people.

As for people not being as liberal, isn't there broad support for his programs?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. I haven't really looked at polls on policy ideas lately, but

but don't doubt what you say. For many who say we aren't divided, that isn't really true. 1/2 of our party is going with a policies they believe in ( tend toward more diverse, non-college educated, more self described liberal) and half who care more about defeating trump (tend to be less diverse, less liberal, and possess higher education)

[gab13by13]

44. So, word has it that Bernie can't beat Trump.

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong polls but I can't find one that shows Trump beating Bernie, not saying there isn't one out there just that I have not seen it.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

47. No, you are right. Yet there must be a magic number

tRussia is looking at where it wouldn't cause riots in the street if they miraculously pulled off a "win". 3-4 points? Just seems so much like right to go with the person who has the highest matchup lead in battleground states. Whomever that is when you vote.

[ehrnst]

106. Actually, he's not the only Dem candidate beating Trump in the polls

I think you just missed that...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

[AllyCat]

12. I know many Democrats who like him.

The country NEEDS to be as liberal as he is to recover from the current state of affairs. We needed this in 2016. I'll support whoever the nominee is, but I don't feel we need moderate Dem right now.

And continuing this infighting is playing into Putin's grand plan for our once great democracy.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

22. Trust me - I want to like him and hope like hell to

come around. If only could get past what seems so brutally obvious to me that he could never beat trump.

[AllyCat]

42. I'm worried none of our candidates can surpass the ratfuckery the GOP has planned

Any of our candidates can do well against 45. But we are not running the show if we are letting Russia get us fighting amongst ourselves and the plan, as I perceive it, to keep 45 there until he dies.

[IronLionZion]

13. Do you know many younger Dems?

My younger coworkers waited 8 hours to meet him at his rallies in the past and are organizing folks to go see him this weekend.

Someone obviously voted for him in the primaries.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

26. Some..but what's funny is that we were just discussing the subject

of where your head is when you are a young voter. Full of idealism and the fact that your person might not win never even enters your head.

[cannabis_flower]

15. People

hang in their own bubbles. It depends a lot on where you live and who you associate with.

[mysteryowl]

21. Exactly. I think we all need to mingle more.

[mysteryowl]

17. I think that would be true for many. We often encircle ourselves with people like ourselves.

I know many people that like Bernie. I also see signs in front yards.
We are a big country.

[jimfields33]

27. What is the concern with Florida?

Obama could have lost the state both times and won the election. Sanders can too. Sanders will win Michigan and Pennsylvania, but lose Wisconsin....most others would too. That makes Bernie President!!!!!

[berksdem]

50. curious...

I live in PA and what makes you think he would turn PA blue again?

[jimfields33]

64. Philadelphia for one thing

200k did not vote in 2016 like they did in 2012.

[berksdem]

74. I live in PA and Philly is where I grew

up and I think you are right about Philly and Pitt - what concerns me the most is b/t those two cities geographically. Central PA is heavily Trump county and conservative. I hope you are right... I don't think I can handle losing PA again.

[jimfields33]

75. I agree

I grew up in Whitehall. Remember middle state already voted for him. That’s baked in the cake already. And no Jill Stein either.

[berksdem]

88. Absolutely!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

61. MoJoe said Sanders kissed Florida goodbye with his

Castro comments. I know, just one person, just a former repuke, etc. etc. But think he does know Florida.

[jimfields33]

65. We don't need Florida though to win the presidency

[Laura PourMeADrink]

67. What is your path? No Florida, no Ohio, no Texas, no NC, no

Wisconsin? Not being an asshole, just want to know.

[jimfields33]

71. Hillary states and Michigan and Pennsylvania.

We will get those because Detroit and Philadelphia will show up this election.

[OliverQ]

35. Lol what?

Bernie is the most popular politician in the country and has been for years. In a recent ranking of candidate likability, Bernie came in #1. I think Warren was #2.

The world doesn't seem anywhere near as liberal? Bernie would be a center-left candidate or standard left in most of the other western countries. Europe has actual communist parties. Sure, Bernie is pretty left compared to Russia, China, or Saudi Arabia but why the heck would we want to emulate them?

Florida was unlikely to be won by any Democrat. Bloomberg is the only person who is polling well there.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

62. That surprises me. Do you have a link

[Ferrets are Cool]

37. Ditto

[mainer]

59. That's what I thought. Then I talked to my son.

there is a HUGE Sanders following that we mainstream Dems are blind to. That loyal following showed up in Nevada -- and surprised everyone. Young people love him. And, we now find out, every single demographic -- except for those over 65 -- loves him.

We have got to admit that yes, he could win the nomination. Not only that, if young voters turn out, he can probably beat Trump.

[Progressive dog]

6. Under thirty percent of Democrats

support Bernie according to those polls. But I'm sure Putin and Trump are both happy about Bernie moving up.

[jimfields33]

29. I shutter to think what the percentages others have if at first place bernie has 30 percent

Yieks!

[Progressive dog]

49. Bernie is the sole member of the socialist group

and he has the added feature of only being a Democrat when he's running in their primary.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

31. Totally agree that tRussia wants Bernie. How we pick

someone that plays into this is beyond my thinking. Like why go into it already in the hole? I am just hoping that the heavy lifting it will take to bring ALL Dems on board will happen quickly.

Like you say, he's only got a third. The rest who are to his right are splitting the vote. If the rest could coalesce around one person it would be a totally different outcome.

[brooklynite]

11. We don't nominate Presidential candidates based on "first place"

We nominate based on a majority of delegates.

[cannabis_flower]

18. You do know..

that Bernie currently has the most delegates, don't you?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-02-24/sanders-picks-up-24-delegates-from-nevada-establishing-lead

[brooklynite]

20. Yes, and nothing close to a majority...

[Autumn]

30. Well he's not behind and none of ther others have close to a majority...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

48. Mocking emoji again

[Autumn]

51. No. That's a laughing emoji.

This is a . This is an roll emoji. That one might be the closest we have to a mocking emoji. You might ask if they can be done away with or just ignore people who use them.

[ramen]

36. Nobody has a majority at this stage, no.

I'm expecting super Tuesday to answer a lot of questions and put the assertions in this thread that Russia has manipulated all the polling that has Sanders ahead in swing states to the test.

[LanternWaste]

68. Who is arguing that point?

Is anyone stating otherwise?

[Autumn]

14. Yes he is. Good times Uncle Joe, good times.

“I would almost argue that a third-place finish for Amy would be stronger and more important than a first-place finish for Bernie,”

“Nevada Caucuses Win Would Make Bernie Sanders a Weak Front-Runner”


I'm surprised that they don't focus on the tragedy of his having won the popular vote so far.

[cannabis_flower]

19. And..

The most delegates!

[Autumn]

23. I think Bernie's doing damn good for a man the Democratic party seems to be

running against.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

33. Or don't agree with

[Autumn]

39. It's not a matter of agreeing with or disagreeing with. The secrets already out, the goal

is to knock out Bernie. Bloomberg won't get the job done so...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

53. Too many on the other side. They are splitting the vote.

Thought it interesting what I just heard a Dem analyst say that someone like Klobochar who has shown no strength with black voters (who make up a large share of our voters who elect our candidates) is not thinking about overall democracy by staying with n the race.

[Lucky Luciano]

57. Don't agree with or don't think will beat fuckface?

Don’t agree with is awfully conservative for a Democratic Underground.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

60. Don't think he can beat "fuckface" AND don't think his

plans could see the light of day in our current world (unfortunately). Jeez just look how hard it was to get ACA in.

[Lucky Luciano]

78. I don't think he can pass what he wants either,

...but it is better to start negotiating from an uncompromised position.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

83. Do you mean "uncompromised" position?

[Lucky Luciano]

85. Yes! Thanks!

[Uncle Joe]

25. ...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

32. You do know that mocking emojis are not helpful right?

[ramen]

38. +1, i am trying to bring us together whenever possible,

mocking-emoji-ing each other or eye rolling each other is basically a way of saying that your own rhetoric is thin and that you don't value whoever you are responding to as a person. We're going to need everybody here on the same team in November, and that is far more important to me than if that team is Sanders or not.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

58. What you say makes all the sense in the world! And

If you want to convince others to get on the bandwagon you are on, why not be respectful? But that like a no-brainer.

[Autumn]

46. Emojis are not helpful? Odd that they are used very often. Do you complain every time you see them?

That would keep a person very busy.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

55. No, only when I see it inexplicably used against our own team.

[Autumn]

69. This is our team? Ya think?

Remember when the big winner of New Hampshire was third-place finisher Amy Klobuchar (FAIR.org, 2/14/20)?

“Bernie Sanders may have come first in New Hampshire, but Amy Klobuchar won,” Bloomberg (2/12/20) declared (the media company, not the billionaire candidate who owns it). “I would almost argue that a third-place finish for Amy would be stronger and more important than a first-place finish for Bernie,” MSNBC commentator Adrienne Elrod (2/11/20) asserted.

That’s not how it worked out, of course; since February 14, Bernie Sanders has gone from a 4-point lead to a 12-point lead over his closest rival, Joe Biden, in national polling averages, while Klobuchar remains in fifth place. In the Nevada caucuses held February 22, Sanders got twice as many final votes as No. 2 Biden, whom Sanders was trailing in the polls as recently as ten days earlier.

Caucus entrance polls found the Vermont senator was the top choice of both men and women, whites and Latinos (though not African-Americans, where he was second to Biden), all age groups except those 65 and older, Democrats and independents, union households and non-union households, and those with and without college degrees. He had the most support among those described as “very liberal” and “somewhat liberal,” and tied Biden among those labeled “moderate or conservative.”

So while there’s still some coverage that might be said to be stuck in the denial stage about Sanders—“Nevada Caucuses Win Would Make Bernie Sanders a Weak Front-Runner” (Washington Examiner, 2/18/20; MSN, 2/18/20) was a late entry in that genre—for the most part corporate media have moved on to the next stage of grieving, which is anger.

(snip)

https://fair.org/home/bernie-sanders-plunges-to-first-place/

I took those quotes from the talking heads direct from the article in the OP. That may be your team but it certainly isn't mine.

“I would almost argue that a third-place finish for Amy would be stronger and more important than a first-place finish for Bernie,”

“Nevada Caucuses Win Would Make Bernie Sanders a Weak Front-Runner”

I proudly stand with those emojis I posted. .

[Laura PourMeADrink]

96. Ok. Just saying they are mean spirited and annoying.

[LanternWaste]

70. You so accurately illustrate the character of your candidate.

[Autumn]

76. And all I have to do is accurately quote a few nasty dismissive words from the pundits.

If you think quoting their actual fucking words makes me look bad and makes the person they are dismissing look bad what do you think their actions illustrate about them and their defenders?

Talk about illustrating character? Yeah

[NoMoreRepugs]

56. My 40 year old daughter works for a large makeup/beauty

conglomerate. Majority of employees are educated and skew younger. She has been with the firm more than a decade, travels a great deal. She continues to be amazed at how many of the younger female employees have zero interest in politics. Many, if married, simply let their husbands Mark their absentee ballot. Drives my involved daughter insane.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

63. I see that too. It's like a very small group is making this happen.

[Mountain Mule]

77. A "very small group" is somehow winning in the primaries?

As Spock used to say, “This does not compute.”

[Laura PourMeADrink]

84. Well, because in Jan 2019 Nevada had 611,000 active Democratic voters

Last edited Tue Feb 25, 2020, 03:20 PM - Edit history (1)

His caucus vote total was 41k

[Cal Carpenter]

87. Those are county delegates, not popular vote

Turnout in Nevada was higher than it was in 2016. He had 35K in the first round, 41K in the second round.

Caucuses always have crappy turnout, which is one of their many serious problems.

eta: here's a link, click through the tabs to see the 1st, 2nd, and delegate count https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/nevada?xid=ec_crm_nv_d

[Laura PourMeADrink]

94. Thanks. Sorry about that. Do want to know turnout votes to all Dems %

[Laura PourMeADrink]

95. Yes final 41k against 611k - 6.7%. ..now very many people deciding was my point.

[booley]

89. Clearly by winning, Sanders is losing

the real story is who came in third or fourth!

Hey did you know if we globbed all the voters that weren't for Sanders into some kind of blob it would be a huge violation of scientific ethics?

[myohmy2]

97. +1

...

[bamagal62]

102. My question is, how much is this

because of crossover voters?

[ehrnst]

104. Well, Trump did encourage that, didn't he?